Who Wins The 2027 Stanley Cup?
Kalshi's favorite is the Florida Panthers at 13¢, with the Colorado Avalanche two cents behind at 11¢. The eight-model panel disagrees: it puts Colorado on top at 11% and Florida no better than third.
The biggest split is still Dallas. The market has the Stars at 5¢, the same price as in July; the panel has them at 10%, the second-best number on the board.
Hockey's field is flat enough that ten teams are priced between 13¢ and 5¢, which is why offseason moves matter more here than in most sports. Each model saw last season's record, the complete current roster, and official transactions from the NHL and ESPN, but no market prices. Kalshi prices on this page are last-traded prices as of September 20, 2026. The panel's verdicts are from July 25, 2026, and were not re-run.
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Which Prices Look Wrong?
Dallas Stars: market 5¢, panel 10%. Gemini 3.1 Pro's case is a 112-point core with Jake Oettinger in net, priced level with Washington and San Jose.
Minnesota Wild: market 7¢, panel 8%. The gap was three points in July and is one now, on a contract bid at 5¢ and offered at 7¢. DeepSeek V4: "With 104 points last season and the addition of elite defenseman Quinn Hughes, the Wild are a top contender, but the Cup remains highly competitive."
Boston Bruins: market 1¢, panel 5%. Claude Sonnet: "Bruins are a strong, retooled roster but one of 32 teams; Cup odds are inherently long."
Florida Panthers: market 13¢, panel 9%. The panel's biggest fade on the board: 9% against Kalshi's 13¢. Claude Sonnet: "Talented core retained but mediocre 84-point season signals decline."
All 32 Teams, Priced
Every team's Kalshi price to win the 2027 Stanley Cup, favorite first, as of the stamp above; the last column is the panel's number for the same contract.
| Team | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 11¢ | 11% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 16% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 9% |
| Dallas Stars | 5¢ | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% |
| Florida Panthers | 13¢ | 9% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 14% | 8% | 10% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 8¢ | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Minnesota Wild | 7¢ | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 6¢ | 8% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 6¢ | 7% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 9¢ | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 4¢ | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| Boston Bruins | 1¢ | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 4¢ | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Washington Capitals | 5¢ | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 4% |
| Ottawa Senators | 2¢ | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Los Angeles Kings | 3¢ | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 1¢ | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| New Jersey Devils | 4¢ | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Utah Mammoth | 3¢ | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 3¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 0.8% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 1¢ | 2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| New York Rangers | 2¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 2¢ | 2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| St. Louis Blues | 1¢ | 2.0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| New York Islanders | 1¢ | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 1¢ | 1.9% | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 2¢ | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Nashville Predators | 1¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 3¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| San Jose Sharks | 5¢ | 1.7% | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Seattle Kraken | 1¢ | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2% | 0.8% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 1¢ | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Calgary Flames | 1¢ | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Kalshi prices are last-traded prices as of September 20, 2026. Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements, with records to date between 83% and 86% on at least 4,489 graded markets per seat; the full scoreboard is recomputed daily.
What Moved Since July 25
The market spent the summer marking down two contenders and did nothing about the panel's loudest call. The Vegas Golden Knights went from 9¢ to 6¢ and the Tampa Bay Lightning from 8¢ to 6¢, and both now price below the panel's 8% and 7% after sitting a cent above them in July. Both moves are old: Vegas last traded at 8¢ in mid-August and Tampa Bay in early August. Dallas traded at 6¢ from August into mid-September and is back at the same 5¢ it had in July, bid at 4¢ and offered at 5¢, still half the panel's 10%.
The Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers are the noisy pair. Carolina was 11¢ on this page in July and last traded at 8¢, but it has bounced between 8¢ and 11¢ all month and was still printing 10¢ as late as September 18. Edmonton's 9¢ is a price it had not touched once since this page went up. Both contracts are bid at 8¢ and offered at 9¢, so the market has them level, and the one-cent edge Edmonton shows in the table is only where the last trade landed inside that spread.
Behind Dallas, the three biggest gaps on the board all got wider. Florida went from three points over the panel's number to four. Boston slipped from 2¢ to 1¢, the lowest price on the board, with no bid under it, while the panel still has the Bruins at 5%. The San Jose Sharks went from 4¢ to 5¢, bid at 4¢, level with Dallas on Kalshi against a panel blend of 1.7%, the fifth-lowest number on the board. Colorado, 9¢ here in July, has traded between 9¢ and 12¢ since and last printed 11¢, the panel's exact number.
So eight weeks of trading settled the small arguments and left the big ones standing: Dallas and Boston priced under the panel, Florida and San Jose priced over it.
Model estimates generated July 25, 2026, price-blind. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
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