Prices as of September 3, 2026, 4:16 p.m. Eastern. Record compiled from 38 dated sources; see the sourced record file for every citation.
At 1:20 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, September 3, Fox News Media announced it had parted ways with Maria Bartiromo after 12 and a half years, in a statement that gave no reason: "We thank Maria for her work over the last 12 ½ years and wish her all the best on her next chapter." In the same minute, Kalshi opened a Maria Bartiromo contract on its board for who will be Trump's next press secretary. After three thin prints at 98, 97 and 43 cents, the first trades of any size were 5 and 6 cents, at 1:29 and 1:30. By 1:37 buyers were paying 40, and one two-contract print touched 44. In between, by 1:35 at the latest, Vanity Fair's Aidan McLaughlin had already posted, per RedState, "Bartiromo is not leaving for a job in the Trump admin, I'm told." Vice President JD Vance had taken the briefing room podium, in a briefing set for 1 p.m., the first at the White House in 42 days. Asked there whether she could be the next press secretary, he answered, per The Daily Wire, "No, I don't think so. I just saw the news literally as I walked out. I love Maria. I think she's an amazing person, an amazing talent."
As of 4:16 p.m., with both denials nearly three hours old, the contract that pays $1 if Bartiromo is the next person to serve as White House press secretary is quoted at 13 cents by buyers and 14 by sellers: about a 14% chance, third on a board of 29 names, on 160,756 contracts traded in under three hours. That is more volume than Scott Jennings did on August 26, the day he printed both 46 cents and 16. The market's answer to "who will be Trump's next press secretary" now includes a one-in-seven chance for a person the vice president, on camera, and a reporter's source, in print, have both said is not getting the job. The most interesting trade of the afternoon came after both denials were public; it is below.
The names above her changed places while nobody was watching. Anna Kelly, the principal deputy press secretary, is the favorite at 24 to 25 cents. Jennings, the name the president said out loud on August 21 ("Scott Jennings is good"), is 16 to 17, less than half the 37 he touched the night Alina Habba bowed out and a third of his 46-cent best. Karoline Leavitt's last day was Thursday, August 27, per Spectrum News, her 585th in the job; she joins MAGA Inc., the president's super PAC, this month. Her closing price first passed his on August 28, 21 cents to 20, and has stayed above it every day since; by August 29 it was 27 to 20. Kelly closed at 19 cents on Leavitt's last day and Jennings at 21; today they are 24 to 25 and 16 to 17. The deputy who is already in the building took the lead the next day and has kept it. Add up the top four today, Kelly, Jennings, Bartiromo and Margo Martin, and you get 63 cents, five more than the same sum a week ago, with a new name supplying all of the difference and then some.
If you came here for a date, it is later than it was a week ago. Vance's briefing on Thursday was the first since late July, and the Washington Examiner put the arrangement plainly: "The White House has not yet announced who will replace Leavitt, instead opting to put administration officials behind the podium." That is the "rotating cast" CNN described on August 17, in practice. The president, per Sinclair, has said "I've never had so many job applications in my life... She's made that job very glamorous," which is a compliment to Leavitt and not a timeline. Kalshi's companion market on an announcement before September 8 is quoted at 3 to 5 cents; before September 15, 14 to 16; before October 1, 53 to 63, down from 69 to 78 a week ago. The seat is empty, the podium is borrowed, and the market has pushed the fill date out, the pattern it has priced in Trump's cabinet departures too.
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The Board
As of September 3, 2026, 4:16 p.m. Eastern (Kalshi, cents = probability; the two prices are what buyers will pay and what sellers want):
| Outcome | Yes price (bid/ask) | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| Anna Kelly | 24¢ / 25¢ | about 25% |
| Scott Jennings | 16¢ / 17¢ | about 17% |
| Maria Bartiromo | 13¢ / 14¢ | about 14% |
| Margo Martin | 6¢ / 7¢ | about 7% |
| Alina Habba | 3.4¢ / 5.7¢ | about 5% |
| Elizabeth Pipko | 3¢ / 5¢ | about 4% |
Each contract pays $1 for the first new person to begin serving as press secretary, and acting or interim service counts; an announcement settles nothing, a vice president at the podium settles nothing, and if the job is somehow still unfilled on January 21, 2029, "No new person" (0.4 to 1.5 cents) pays instead. Unlike the attorney general market, this one does pay on acting service, which matters for a deputy. The movement is the story, and Thursday's is on the tape minute by minute. Bartiromo's contract opened at 1:20 p.m. Its first two prints were a single contract each, at 98 and 97 cents, the kind of thing that happens when a book is empty. Then it found a price: 5 cents on 375 contracts at 1:29, 6 cents on 750 in the next minute, 10 on about a thousand by 1:31, 26 and 27 at 1:34, 31 at 1:36, and 40 on 100 contracts at 1:37, 17 minutes after Fox's statement and after the Vanity Fair denial was already on X. The 2 p.m. ten minutes traded between 30 and 37. Then it broke. Between 2:20 and 2:30 it went from 26 to 8 on 8,598 contracts; the 2:50 window traded as low as 4 cents. And then it came back: the biggest ten minutes of the day, 33,530 contracts between 3:20 and 3:30, took it off the 8s to a 20-cent high and left it at 14, and it has settled in the low teens since, 13 to 14 at 4:16 p.m. The trade I keep coming back to is the biggest single one of the afternoon, 5,232 contracts at 10 cents at 3:28 p.m., a buyer, placed with McLaughlin's "I'm told" nearly two hours old and Vance's "No, I don't think so" already circulating. Someone put about $523 on the line to win about $4,700, against two denials, on a name that was not on the board at lunch.
The rest of the board paid for her. Kelly was 27 cents at Wednesday's close and traded down to 22 in the 2 p.m. hour, where 1,000 contracts changed hands at 2:30, before she recovered to 24 to 25. Jennings closed Wednesday at 18, printed as high as 22 in the 2 p.m. hour and as low as 11 in the 3 p.m. hour, on 19,220 contracts for the day, and is 16 to 17 as of 4:16 p.m. Pipko was a 10-cent print Wednesday night and is 3 bid today. Habba, who hit a 15-cent high on August 31, a day that traded 43,217 of her contracts without a new dated report about her in our record, is back to 3.4 bid. The week before Thursday was quieter and it moved the same direction. Kelly's closes since the page's last edition: 16, 19, 21, 27, 26, 27, 26, 27. Jennings's over the same days: 26, 21, 20, 20, 20, 22, 19, 18. Jennings still carries the most open positions on the board, 327,146, more than double Kelly's 152,346, on a board of 29 names that has traded about 3.63 million contracts since it opened, up from 2.56 million a week ago; about 160,000 of it arrived on Thursday afternoon on one name.
What The Models Think
We also put the question to our panel of forecasting programs, which we grade in public against real settlements, without showing them the price, only the sourced record. Three of the panel's eight seats ran this board on August 26, a week before the Bartiromo listing, and the panel has not been re-run on it. Their August 26 answer, all three on the same number, put Jennings at 24%, a point above that evening's 23-cent market, on the strength of Wiles's reported backing and the president's "is good," discounted by "zero urgency," a rotating cast of Cabinet briefers that costs the president nothing, and the panel's reading that an outside television pundit would be an unusual pick. All three named the same trigger, a Truth Social post naming someone or a confirmed offer. Say it flat: the panel was long. It put Jennings a point above a 23-cent market, and a week later the market is 16. Its reasons, zero urgency and a rotating cast that costs the president nothing, were the right reasons; its number was on the wrong side. The trigger it named still has not come, and the price fell without it. The market has real money behind it. The panel has only the record. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Two Names From The President, One Denial From The White House
The Jennings story began as a leak and became a denial. On August 19 the Daily Beast, relaying the Daily Mail, reported that Jennings had met chief of staff Susie Wiles, "who considers him her chosen candidate," more than once, that the two "speak often," and that one person called the job "his if he wants it." The White House denied any meetings took place. The next day CNN's own reporting, as carried by The National Desk, had multiple sources calling him the early favorite while stressing the process was far from complete, and Politico reported no offer had been extended. Jennings, a CNN commentator and former aide to George W. Bush and Mitch McConnell, told Lulu Garcia-Navarro "no" and told Kaitlan Collins, per Poynter, "I don't really have anything to say about it other than, I mean, I would get to see you every day." Collins: "That's not a no."
The case against him is on the record too. NOTUS reported on August 19 that Trump had told advisers he prefers a man for the job, which helps Jennings, and that Trump "remains uncertain," which does not. On Friday, August 21, the day the president said "is good," a source told the New York Post, as relayed by Raw Story, "It's not going to be him." The Washington Examiner put numbers on the trade-off: more than $500,000 a year at CNN plus a podcast, against the capped $195,200 salary, and a source's warning that "he has more to lose than gain, considering he doesn't have a well-established relationship with the president." That last line is the whole market in one sentence, and two weeks of tape have agreed with it. Sean Spicer, who held the job, told Fox News on August 13: "The next press secretary will undoubtedly be someone who has a strong existing relationship with President Trump."
Which is the argument for the two women behind him, one of whom is now in front of him. Kelly, 29, was the Republican National Committee's national press secretary in 2024, is a fixture on Fox News defending the administration, and filled in for Leavitt during her maternity leave, though she has never taken the podium for a briefing; Thursday's went to the vice president, not to her. Martin, 31, is the insider's insider: a White House press assistant in the first term, the lead press secretary of Trump's post-presidency office from February 2021, and since January 20, 2025 a special assistant to the president and communications adviser; the New York Times called her one of his "closest personal aides" in 2024. She was 1 cent on August 20. The president said her name on August 21, she touched 25 on August 26, and she has drifted to 6 to 7 since. Pipko, 31, the RNC's national spokeswoman since 2024, was considered during the transition; the comparison the reporting keeps making, per Federal News Network, is to Hope Hicks.
The Favorite Who Said No, And The Favorite With A Tape
Every name near the top of this board carries something the briefing room would ask about on day one. Habba's exit was the cleanest repricing of the month, 42 cents to 8 overnight on one post, and it came with a history the market had already been holding: her appointment as U.S. attorney for New Jersey was ruled unlawful in August 2025, the Third Circuit upheld the ruling, and on December 8, 2025 she resigned, saying, per CBS News, "As a result of the Third Circuit's ruling, and to protect the stability and integrity of the office which I love, I have decided to step down." She is now a senior adviser to the attorney general. In November 2024, the last time this job was open, she said it was not a role she was considering. Twice the market has run her up and twice she has said no.
Jennings's file is on video. On April 30, 2026, on CNN NewsNight, he told the commentator Adam Mockler, "Get your f---ing hand out of my face," and Jim Acosta, per Fox News, called it "appalling and it's a fireable offense. I think he should be fired." CNN said nothing. To the people who want a press secretary who will, in the words of George Washington University's Todd Belt to Sinclair on August 13, show "determination to stay on message and hit back hard," that tape is a credential. To the Examiner's sources it is a vulnerability, and his McConnell friendship draws opposition from Trump allies, per Poynter. And the clips that reportedly got him the Wiles meeting were of him defending Natalie Harp, the president's executive assistant, whose closeness to Trump the Daily Beast says "has attracted increasing scrutiny over the past several months"; Harp, at 2 to 3 cents, has reportedly put her own name in. None of it moved his price the way one Habba post moved hers. His slide from 46 to 16 has come without a new dated report against him in our record, which is its own kind of information: the market lost faith in a name the president had said out loud, and it did so on volume.
Bartiromo's file is the shortest and the strangest, because what the market is pricing is an absence. Fox gave no reason. NBC News reported that she had not appeared on Fox Business's air since August 9, that her biography and show pages were gone from Fox's websites by Thursday afternoon, and that she did not respond to requests for comment; the same report notes her shows were cited as exhibits in Dominion Voting Systems' 2021 defamation suit against Fox, and that Trump Cabinet secretaries were regulars on them. Her own programs are already reassigned: "Sunday Morning Futures" goes to Jason Chaffetz for now, and "Mornings with Maria" becomes "Mornings with FOX Business" on Friday. Vance said he had not spoken to her and did not "know the backstory about why she's decided to leave Fox News." Nobody on the record has connected her to the job except the people saying she is not taking it. This is the callback to the one thing this page said the market could price with confidence: a favorite who says no in public. Habba said no herself, and went from 42 to 8 overnight. Bartiromo has said nothing, other people have said no for her, and she went from unlisted to 40 to 4 to 14 in three hours. The market believes a denial from the person. It has not decided what a denial about the person is worth.
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What Moves The Price From Here
- A Word From Bartiromo Herself, Any Hour. As of Thursday afternoon she had not commented on leaving Fox, let alone on this job. This board has shown once that a denial in the first person is worth 34 cents overnight; a denial from a vice president and a Vanity Fair correspondent was worth a round trip from 40 to 4 to 14 in an afternoon. Her own sentence, either way, is the next fact this board is waiting on.
- The Next Briefing, And Who Walks To The Podium. Thursday's was the vice president's, and a vice president at the podium settles nothing. If the next one is Anna Kelly's, as acting press secretary, the rulebook says acting counts and this market is over before the president posts a name. If it is another Cabinet official, the announcement ladder (3 to 5 cents before September 8, 14 to 16 before September 15, 53 to 63 before October 1) tells you how long the wait is getting.
- A Yes Or A No From Jennings, Still. Politico's "no offer extended" remains the standing fact. He has gone from 46 to 16 without saying either word. A report of an offer is still the cleanest catalyst on the board; a "staying at CNN" sends most of that 16 toward Kelly.
Karoline Leavitt left on August 27, 2026. The vice president took her podium on September 3. This market settles the day someone new starts the job, acting counts, podium optional, and not before.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style, rendered on the August 26 board. Scott Jennings photo by Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of September 3, 2026, 4:16 p.m. Eastern, and will keep moving until this market settles on the first day a new press secretary serves. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
