Priced August 24, 2026 · reviewed September 5, 2026 · by Jake Hari
What Was Still Open On August 24
Kalshi's monthly Trump word market turns "what will Trump say this month" into a list of yes-or-no contracts, one per word or phrase, and each one closes the moment he says it in public or posts it on Truth Social. August's board listed 31. By August 24, 19 had already settled Yes, from "Autism" and "Filibuster" to "Barack Hussein Obama," and 12 were still trading.
Those 12 were survivors: words he had gone 24 days without saying in a month where 19 others came out of his mouth. The market's favorite was Greenland at 52¢. Our eight-model panel, priced without seeing the market, put it at 21%, the widest gap on the board.
At the other end sat Epstein at 8¢, a word Kalshi had settled No on every window it had ever closed. The saying window ended at midnight ET on September 1 and the contracts settled that morning. Everything below is the August 24 snapshot, and the grade goes to the public scoreboard.
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Why The Final Week Looked Thin
Kalshi had listed exactly two public Trump events inside the remaining window: a tele-rally on Monday, August 24, and remarks at NASA on Friday, August 28, where NASA said he would award the Congressional Space Medal of Honor to the Artemis II astronauts at Johnson Space Center. Both are narrow formats by the exchange's own settled record.
On Kalshi's settled Trump event boards, tele-rallies landed between 10% and 33% of their listed words. Open rallies and long unscripted remarks landed 66% to 82%.
The one previous Medal of Honor ceremony Kalshi priced settled four of its 28 word contracts Yes. The podium was never the only route, though. A single Truth Social post settles a contract as cleanly as an hour of remarks, and Kalshi's separate weekly board on his post count had traders expecting roughly two hundred posts in the seven days.
The Board
Eight models each priced all 12 contracts from the same packet of settled results and dated news, without seeing a market price, then read each other's reasoning with the names stripped and revised or held. The blend is the median of the eight seats after that second round.
Sorted by market price, as of August 24, 2026, 6:34 p.m. ET. The middle column is how the same word settled on Kalshi's June and July monthly boards.
| Word or phrase | Said in June / July board | Market | Panel blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenland | Yes / Yes | 52¢ | 21% |
| Newscum | not listed / Yes | 31¢ | 14% |
| Gulf of America | not listed / Yes | 27¢ | 28% |
| Third Term | not listed / Yes | 26¢ | 17% |
| Peace in the Middle East | not listed / not listed | 24¢ | 15% |
| UFO / UAP | No / No | 11¢ | 6% |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | Yes / Yes | 8¢ | 7% |
| Epstein | not listed / No | 8¢ | 10% |
| Nine War / Ninth War | No / No | 7¢ | 6% |
| Antifa | not listed / not listed | 7¢ | 14% |
| Make Iran Great Again | No / No | 4¢ | 5% |
| Knicks | not listed / No | 2¢ | 6% |
Kalshi event contracts are regulated by the CFTC and are 18+. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles; the running tally lives on the full graded scoreboard.*
The panel came in below the market on seven contracts and above it on five.
One cross-board detail was easy to check. Kalshi's weekly Trump word market covered almost the same final-week window as the monthly board, and "Peace in the Middle East" sat on both. The weekly offered it at 15¢ and the monthly at 23¢. The monthly window was barely longer, and that gap is far bigger than the extra day is worth on a phrase he had used in only one of the last six weekly windows. Two Kalshi boards were quoting the same sentence out of the same man's mouth at meaningfully different numbers.
Greenland: The Favorite The Panel Doubted
Greenland is where the panel and the market were furthest apart, and it got that way in about an hour. The contract traded at 14¢ early Monday afternoon and closed the evening at 53¢, after a month spent sliding from the low fifties to the low teens. The book was thin enough that the bid sat at 32¢ against a 46¢ offer, so the headline number is better read as a range in the high thirties to high forties.
The market had a real argument: Greenland settled Yes on both the June and July boards, and there was a live story underneath. UPI reported on August 8 that Greenland Energy, a Texas oil company whose chairman is described as being in the President's circle, moved drilling equipment to the Jameson Land site without the permits Greenland's government requires. Snopes found that drilling had not begun and that there is no evidence the President owns or controls the company, and Newsweek later reported that Greenland cast doubt on the firm's drilling schedule. The acquisition push itself is old: he restated it at the NATO summit on July 7, and Denmark's prime minister has publicly asked him to stop.
The panel weighed all of that and stayed low, and its reason was timing rather than topic. The drilling story broke on August 8 and he then went 16 more days without saying the word.
Greenland is a durable Trump acquisition theme with a live August drilling story and an always-on Truth Social channel, but 24 dry days plus a thin, narrow-format calendar (tele-rally, NASA remarks) make a 7-day hit an underdog.
— Claude Opus
The two lowest seats, GPT and Gemini at 16%, both landed on the same point: neither remaining event was naturally about Greenland. The highest seat, Kimi at 26%, was still six points under the market's own bid.
Epstein: The Word He Never Said
Epstein sat at 8¢ with the panel slightly above it at 10%, and the number itself was the story. Kalshi's settlement record said Trump had not said the word in any of the five weekly boards that listed it, nor in July's monthly board, nor in the first 24 days of August's. Every window the exchange had closed on that word settled No.
It was not a quiet month for the subject. CNN reported on August 6 that the President urged the country to move on from Epstein while congressional frustrations boiled over, and on August 13 ABC News reported that Judge Emmet Sullivan pressed Justice Department lawyers to explain why some Epstein materials were withheld, a hearing Forbes framed as the test of whether more files get released. Eleven days on from that hearing, the contract was still open.
That is what an 8¢ price was describing: a president asked about a running legal story all month who had not used the name once in a way that reached settlement. Several seats revised downward for exactly that reason. They had treated the hearing as a catalyst, and the settled record showed it was not one.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
A model that changes its number and says why is showing its work. Claude Sonnet made the biggest move on the board, cutting Antifa from 58% to 30%.
Moved down from 0.58: I overweighted a generic 'he says this constantly' prior without a dated news hook in the card to back it this week, and underweighted that the two scheduled events are narrow-topic, not rally/open-Q&A settings where stump vocabulary like Antifa naturally surfaces. ...
— Claude Sonnet, on Antifa
Kimi walked Greenland down from 35% to 26%, writing that the drilling story "was live in early-to-mid August and he still didn't say the word, which is real evidence the hook isn't forcing his hand." GLM went from 32% to 24% after deciding the news hook was "company-level, not Trump-level." Claude Fable held its Greenland number flat on the same logic: the hook had already been tested against his silence and failed.
The Cheap Words At Least One Seat Liked
Antifa, 7¢, panel 14%. The widest disagreement inside the panel, from DeepSeek at 5% to Sonnet at 30%. The bull case is that this is event-triggered vocabulary attached to protests and deployments, and triggers arrive without warning. The bear case is the same dry stretch that sank every other word here.
Knicks, 2¢, panel 6%. Every seat priced it above the market for the same reason: the NBA was in deep offseason with no New York hook, but the word costs nothing to say in a two-hundred-post week. Nobody went above 7%. The panel was not calling it likely, only cheaper than two cents.
Gulf of America, 27¢, panel 28%. The one contract where market and panel essentially agreed, and the closest thing on the board to a toss-up. It settled Yes on July's board and landed at two of the four Trump events where Kalshi listed it. Claude Opus supplied the reconciling detail: at least two of those hits came while the renaming was fresh news, and the August silence was the more recent evidence.
Make Iran Great Again, 4¢, panel 5%. The most-traded of the 12 open contracts by Kalshi's volume count, and it had settled No on both monthly boards that listed it. The phrase is unquestionably in his orbit: Al Jazeera reported in January that he was photographed with a signed "Make Iran Great Again" hat. The question was never whether the phrase exists, only how often he says it, and the answer so far was not in any month Kalshi had priced.
The Bottom Line
The panel's disagreements with the market clustered in a way that makes sense. It discounted headline-driven words whose headlines had already failed to produce them, and it held a small floor under the cheap ones because the posting channel never closes. The Greenland gap, the biggest on the board, rested on a single hour of Monday trading that nothing in this run's reporting could account for.
The contracts settled on the morning of September 1. Every number above gets graded in public on the scoreboard, and Kalshi runs a fresh board each month.
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