Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
Eagles -4.5 is going to be popular. Caleb Williams is probably out, although a hamstring you thought would cost him a month may cost him a week; Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol; it might be Case Keenum. Everyone wants Philadelphia. So why is the number only 4.5? Anyone? I will close the week, unbelievably, at home in Chicago, saying Bears +4.5.
Kickoff: Monday, September 28, 8:15 PM ET, Soldier Field, ESPN and ABC
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Eagles Win By 5 Or More | 50-51¢ | Eagles −4.5 |
| Total: Over 41.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 41.5 |
| Moneyline: Eagles Win | 68-69¢ | Eagles -225 / Bears +185 |
Philadelphia is laying 4.5 on Monday night. On Kalshi, the Eagles winning by five or more is 50 to 51 cents, and Philadelphia to win outright is 68 to 69, about -215. The over at 41.5 is 49 to 50 cents. Philadelphia has failed to cover three straight; Chicago is 4-2-1 against the spread as a home dog since 2024, and the Bears beat the Eagles 24-15 as 7-point dogs the last time they met.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Eagles | Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles run game vs Bears run D | 18th | 19th | even |
| Eagles passing game vs Bears pass D | 11th | 20th | Eagles O |
| Eagles pass protection vs Bears pass rush | 21st | 18th | even |
| Eagles explosive plays vs Bears big-play D | 5th | 28th | Eagles O, clearly |
| Bears run game vs Eagles run D | 25th | 13th | Bears O, clearly |
| Bears passing game vs Eagles pass D | 18th | 7th | Bears O |
| Bears pass protection vs Eagles pass rush | 30th | 22nd | Bears O |
| Bears explosive plays vs Eagles big-play D | 17th | 10th | Bears O |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Eagles, best: explosive passes (5th), ypa (10th), pass defense yards (8th). Worst: explosive runs (31st), success rate (29th), pressure (30th).
Bears, best: rushing yards (2nd), touchdowns (2nd), success rate allowed (11th). Worst: pass protection (22nd), success rate (21st), ypa allowed (28th).
They Cannot Protect Hurts, And They Cannot Run
Philadelphia beat Tennessee 24-20 as a 7-point favorite and did not cover, 0-2 against the spread. Jalen Hurts was 26 of 37 for 264, two scores and two picks, a completion rate 16 points over expected; he was hit on the second pick, and outside of that he carved up the secondary. DeVonta Smith caught 10 of 13 for 117, one of the best unheralded receivers in the league, and Dontayvion Wicks has been fantastic. I like what Hurts is doing.
The rest is the problem. The line cannot protect him (three sacks, six hits, and Jeffery Simmons put two linemen in the ground), the run game averaged 2.8 a carry with a 22% stuff rate, Saquon Barkley had four carries for nine yards and is questionable with a stinger, and there is absolutely no production on first down: it is always second and third down. Dallas Goedert (MCL) is doubtful. The offense ran 72 plays and went 11 of 18 on third down, which is a stat about living on third down.
Three Points At Home
Chicago lost 9-3 at home to Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite. Williams was 15 of 26 for 138 with a pick before the hamstring took him out; the offense had a 32% success rate, two turnovers, and took four sacks and ten hits against a 77% blitz rate. D'Andre Swift ran 16 for 45. The defense was good: Minnesota had a 32% success rate and went 3 of 13 on third down, and Chicago got four sacks and ten hits on Wentz sending five-plus rushers 39% of the time.
The path is the one Chicago used on Black Friday last year, when Kyle Monangai and Swift ran for 300-some yards on Philadelphia: enough pressure from the defense to keep it close, and the run game against a front that allowed 4.2 a carry to Tennessee. Whoever the quarterback is, that is the plan, and a number that has not moved past 4.5 with the starter doubtful is telling you the market thinks it can work.
The Pick
Bears +4.5.On Kalshi, that is the Eagles not winning by five or more, 49 to 50 cents.
Possibly down its top two quarterbacks and I am still taking the points, because the Eagles have not protected Hurts or run the ball in two weeks. If Williams plays, it is a stronger call.
Injury Report
- Caleb Williams (CHI). Hamstring, week-to-week, not ruled out for Monday. Bagent is in the concussion protocol; Case Keenum is next.
- Saquon Barkley (PHI). Stinger, questionable; four carries last week. Tank Bigsby carried 13 times.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI). MCL, doubtful. Smith and Wicks carry the targets.
- Weather. Mid-60s at kickoff, wind about five, dry at Soldier Field.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Jalen Hurts 11-14-22.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
