Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
The Rams ran all over the Giants without Jaxson Dart on the other side, and Puka Nacua is expected back this week. Denver had a nice come-from-behind win over Jacksonville after getting smoked by the Chiefs. My concern is that Bo Nix and the run game cannot keep up with a team that scores like this. Lean Rams -2.5, inside a field goal, and I do not love it.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 27, 8:20 PM ET, Empower Field at Mile High, NBC
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Rams Win By 3 Or More | 51-52¢ | Rams −2.5 |
| Total: Over 45.5 Points | 47-48¢ | 45.5 |
| Moneyline: Rams Win | 55-56¢ | Rams -142 / Broncos +120 |
Los Angeles is a 2.5-point road favorite. On Kalshi, the Rams winning by three or more is 51 to 52 cents, and Los Angeles to win outright is 55 to 56, about -125. The over at 45.5 is 47 to 48 cents; both Rams games and both Broncos games have gone under. The Rams are 9-3 against the spread as a road favorite since 2024, the best on the slate.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Rams | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams run game vs Broncos run D | 17th | 31st | Rams O, clearly |
| Rams passing game vs Broncos pass D | 16th | 9th | Broncos D |
| Rams pass protection vs Broncos pass rush | 5th | 11th | Rams O |
| Rams explosive plays vs Broncos big-play D | 7th | 15th | Rams O |
| Broncos run game vs Rams run D | 21st | 16th | Broncos O |
| Broncos passing game vs Rams pass D | 6th | 26th | Rams D, clearly |
| Broncos pass protection vs Rams pass rush | 24th | 8th | Broncos O, clearly |
| Broncos explosive plays vs Rams big-play D | 3rd | 17th | Rams D, clearly |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 2 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Rams, best: ypc (2nd), rushing yards (3rd), explosive passes allowed (3rd). Worst: scoring (22nd), offense overall (18th), pass rush (29th).
Broncos, best: explosive runs (7th), pass protection (8th), pass defense yards (9th). Worst: scoring (26th), offense overall (26th), run defense efficiency (31st).
Stafford, Adams, And A Defense That Still Gets Pressure
Los Angeles beat the Giants 28-6 as a 6.5-point favorite. Matthew Stafford was 22 of 30 for 327 and four touchdowns, 3 of 5 deep for 114; Davante Adams caught 8 of 10 for 195 and two scores at a 19.8-yard average depth, including a 64-yarder. The run game averaged 6.6 a carry with six runs of 10-plus (Kyren Williams 12 for 85, Blake Corum 12 for 79). Nacua should be back, and this is still a team with a lot of firepower.
The defense is not inferior by any stretch. No Myles Garrett, but Aaron Donald is back and they still get pressure; the Giants had a 27% success rate and one completion of 20-plus, and the secondary is excellent, with maybe the best corner in football, which is what Adams says he is.
Nothing Through Two Weeks Says Denver Keeps Up
Denver beat Jacksonville 20-13 as a 2.5-point favorite. Bo Nix was 22 of 31 for 288 with a pick, 3 of 4 deep for 105, zero sacks and two interception-worthy throws; Jaylen Waddle caught 8 of 10 for 138 with three completions of 20-plus. The run game was split between Jonah Coleman and J.K. Dobbins, and Dobbins and RJ Harvey are both questionable with hamstrings. The defense allowed three completions of 20-plus and 4.0 a carry and got two sacks and seven hits on Lawrence.
That is a decent team. I have not seen anything through two weeks from the offense that says it keeps pace with Stafford, Adams and Nacua if the Rams score 28 again. Denver is 2-2 as a home dog since 2024.
Why It Feels Like A Trap
A road favorite at 2.5 on a short week, at altitude, on Sunday night: it feels like a sneaky trap of a bet. I am not sure I care that much in this spot, because the side with the better quarterback and the better receivers is also the side with the better pass rush. I would love your read on this one. It is a lean, I do not think I bet it, and I am going to have a good time watching it.
The Pick
Lean Rams -2.5.On Kalshi, that is the Rams winning by three or more, 51 to 52 cents.
A lean. The short week and the altitude are real; so is the gap at quarterback and receiver.
Injury Report
- Puka Nacua (LA). Expected back this week after the hip. With Adams, that is the best receiver pair on the slate.
- J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey (DEN). Both questionable, hamstrings. Coleman carries it if both sit.
- Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN). Foot, questionable. Waddle carried the passing game with 10 targets.
- Weather. Low 80s at kickoff, wind about 11, dry. Altitude is the only environment factor.
My picks for the rest of Week 3 are in NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: Tennessee Titans via Wikimedia Commons (2025 Rams vs Titans Matthew Stafford.png), licensed CC BY 3.0; cropped and toned.
