This is a coin flip with a lean, and the lean is San Francisco. I think the 49ers win a tight, lower-scoring game where Bo Nix never gets going through the air, and that's the parlay I wanted to build.
So I picked the score before the legs. I typed a 49ers win into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, then a Broncos upset, and kept the top three-leg combo for each.
A One-Score Game
Denver Broncos (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0) Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET · Levi's Stadium · CBS Stokastic Sims: 49ers win 56%
Mike Evans is questionable for San Francisco. My read is a field-goal game that the 49ers close out.
Nix Stays Short
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Over 52.5 total points | NO | 64¢ (-178) |
| DEN wins by 6+ | NO | 75¢ (-300) |
| Bo Nix 250+ passing yards | NO | 66¢ (-194) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near SF 24-21 |
|---|---|---|
| 36.2¢ (+176) | 31.7¢ (+216) | 68% |
These legs hit together because Denver's path to a comfortable win and a high total runs through a big Nix passing day. Keep him under 250 and the score stays tight and low, which also covers a close Broncos win.
Broncos Steal It
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| SF wins by 5+ | NO | 61¢ (-156) |
| Over 52.5 total points | NO | 64¢ (-178) |
| Christian McCaffrey 80+ rushing yards | NO | 67¢ (-203) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near DEN 24-21 |
|---|---|---|
| 31.1¢ (+222) | 26.2¢ (+282) | 76% |
Flip the score and the top card doesn't even need Denver to win. Keep McCaffrey under 80 and the 49ers can't run away with it, so the margin and the total stay small together. It also cashes in a close 49ers win, so it pairs well with the Nix ticket.
Build It Yourself
- Open DEN @ SF in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
- Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script.
- Set legs to 3 and read the cards. The yellow Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit in 10,000 sims. Kalshi is the three legs bought one at a time, multiplied. Current Script is how often it hit in sims that finished near your score. When the Kalshi number is higher than the sims price, skip that ticket.
My Two Tickets
- 49ers 24-21 (36.2¢ sims): NO on Over 52.5 total points, NO on DEN wins by 6+, NO on Bo Nix 250+ passing yards.
- Broncos 24-21 (31.1¢ sims): NO on SF wins by 5+, NO on Over 52.5 total points, NO on Christian McCaffrey 80+ rushing yards.
Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day and move until kickoff. If your score isn't mine, type it into the simulator. It's free and it rebuilds the combos for whatever you pick.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
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