Two teams with the same record meet in Cincinnati, and I think the Bengals hold on in a game that comes down to the last possession. A close home win that never turns into a track meet is the script, and the legs have to fit it.
I typed that score into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, which builds three-leg combos for the score you pick and prices them from 10,000 Stokastic Sims. Then I ran the Jaguars version too.
Cincinnati By A Score
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Paycor Stadium · CBS Stokastic Sims: Bengals win 51%
The sims have this about as even as a game gets, with the Bengals a hair ahead at home. Neither team has anyone on the injury report.
Tuten Stays Contained
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| JAX wins by 6+ | NO | 75¢ (-300) |
| Over 55.5 total points | NO | 62¢ (-163) |
| Bhayshul Tuten 70+ rushing yards | NO | 67¢ (-203) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near CIN 26-24 |
|---|---|---|
| 35.5¢ (+182) | 31.2¢ (+221) | 71% |
These legs hit together because a big Tuten day is how Jacksonville pulls away and pushes the score up. Keep him under 70 and you get a close, lower-scoring game, which also covers a narrow Jaguars win.
Jacksonville Steals One
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| CIN wins by 5+ | NO | 61¢ (-156) |
| Samaje Perine 20+ rushing yards | NO | 67¢ (-203) |
| Bhayshul Tuten 40+ rushing yards | YES | 71¢ (-245) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near JAX 27-24 |
|---|---|---|
| 36.0¢ (+177) | 29.0¢ (+245) | 57% |
Flip the score and Tuten is the back getting his yards. With Perine held under 20 and Tuten past 40, Cincinnati doesn't pull away. I like that this card doesn't need the Jaguars to win, only to keep it within four.
Build It Yourself
- Open JAX @ CIN in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
- Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script.
- Set legs to 3 and read the cards. Play the ones where the Sims Price is above the Kalshi number, skip any where the Kalshi number is higher, and check Current Script for how often it hits if your score is right.
My Two Tickets
- Bengals 26-24 (35.5¢ sims): NO on JAX wins by 6+, NO on Over 55.5 total points, NO on Bhayshul Tuten 70+ rushing yards.
- Jaguars 27-24 (36.0¢ sims): NO on CIN wins by 5+, NO on Samaje Perine 20+ rushing yards, YES on Bhayshul Tuten 40+ rushing yards.
Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day and move until kickoff. The simulator is free, so type your own Jaguars-Bengals score and see what it builds.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
More on this: Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250 · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Winston Under 2 TDs · Chargers vs Seahawks Same Game Parlay: Darnold Stays Quiet · Dolphins vs Vikings Same Game Parlay: Gordon Held Under 30 · Jets vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Monangai Runs For 30
