Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
Ja'Marr Chase left last week's game early and Tee Higgins is dealing with an adductor injury, and both are legitimately questionable. If both sit, Cincinnati's receivers are Mitchell Tinsley and Dohnte Meyers. Miami is a seven-point home dog. With this much uncertainty it's only a lean, and the lean is the points: Dolphins +7.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bengals Win By 7 Or More | 52-53¢ | Bengals −7 |
| Total: Over 42.5 Points | 51-52¢ | 42.5 |
| Moneyline: Bengals Win | 74-75¢ | Bengals -345 / Dolphins +275 |
On Kalshi, Cincinnati winning by seven or more is 52 to 53 cents, and the Bengals to win outright are 74 to 75 cents, about -290. The over at 42.5 is 51 to 52 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Bengals | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals run game vs Dolphins run D | 19th | 8th | Dolphins D |
| Bengals passing game vs Dolphins pass D | 14th | 29th | Bengals O, clearly |
| Bengals pass protection vs Dolphins pass rush | 25th | 24th | even |
| Bengals explosive plays vs Dolphins big-play D | 20th | 21st | even |
| Dolphins run game vs Bengals run D | 17th | 27th | Bengals D |
| Dolphins passing game vs Bengals pass D | 8th | 28th | Bengals D, clearly |
| Dolphins pass protection vs Bengals pass rush | 7th | 16th | Bengals D |
| Dolphins explosive plays vs Bengals big-play D | 22nd | 15th | Dolphins O |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Bengals, best: passing yards (5th), offense overall (10th), run stuffs (1st). Worst: rushing yards (29th), pass protection (25th), pass defense yards (25th).
Dolphins, best: ypa (15th), explosive passes (15th), run stuffs (7th). Worst: scoring (32nd), touchdowns (32nd), ypa allowed (30th).
Cincinnati Has Lost Two Straight
The Bengals lost 22-17 at home to Jacksonville as 2.5-point favorites, their second straight loss and second straight non-cover. Joe Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, and took 11 hits. The run game was 13 carries for 18 yards. Higgins caught 11 of 16 targets for 157, Chase Brown caught all 11 of his targets, and Chase was not in the top five in targets after leaving early.
If Chase and Higgins both miss, the targets go to Tinsley, Meyers and Mike Gesicki, and Brown gets a big helping of carries and catches. That does not mean Cincinnati can't win big. The defense is 10th in EPA per play and seventh in pressure rate, and Burrow is still Burrow. It means seven points is a lot to lay with a receiver room that thin.
Miami's Offense Barely Exists
The Dolphins are 0-4 and last in the league at 11.5 points per game. They lost 15-10 in Minnesota last week and covered as 10-point dogs. Malik Willis went 9 of 17 for 85 yards, the offense ran 39 plays, and Ollie Gordon II was the bright spot with 100 yards on nine carries. De'Von Achane is out, and that is a big loss for an offense that looked semi-competitive against Kansas City in its home opener.
Miami's run defense ranks eighth in EPA per carry allowed, which matters against a Bengals team that has averaged 1.4 yards a carry its last time out. If Cincinnati has to throw to its third and fourth receivers, the Dolphins' 29th-ranked pass defense gets an easier day than its rank says.
The Pick
Lean Dolphins +7.On Kalshi, that is Cincinnati not winning by seven or more, 47 to 48 cents.
It's a lean until we know about Chase and Higgins. If both are ruled out, Miami at seven at home is the side. If both play, the case is a lot thinner.
Ask The SimsThe Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays. This game turns on the injury report, so ask both ways: best Bengals parlay if Chase Brown carries the offense, best parlay if Joe Burrow throws for 300 anyway, best Dolphins parlay if they keep it within a touchdown. Every script gets its own combos, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (CIN). Both questionable: Chase left last week early, Higgins has an adductor injury. This is the whole bet.
- Cincinnati's defense. Injuries from last week carry over. Watch Friday's designations.
- De'Von Achane (MIA). Out.
- Weather. Outdoors in Miami.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (WFT vs. Bengals (51394233163).jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
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