NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game: Records Lie

Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 7. Thursday night's Buccaneers at Cowboys pick is Dallas -8.5.

We've reached the part of the season where the records lie. Some 4-0 teams shouldn't be 4-0, some 0-4 teams shouldn't be 0-4, and the Vikings have won three straight with one offensive touchdown. That is a great place to be if you're still betting the NFL in Week 5. There is enough data to form an opinion, not everything adds up, and the spots where it doesn't are the ones to take advantage of. Fifteen games, Thursday night through Monday night. Tell me where I'm wrong before kickoff, not on Tuesday.

Game	Kick (ET)	Kalshi to win	Spread	Total
Buccaneers at Cowboys	Thu 8:15 PM	Cowboys 80¢	Cowboys −8.5	47.5
Eagles at Jaguars	Sun 9:30 AM	Jaguars 76¢	Jaguars −7	42.5
Bears at Packers	Sun 1:00 PM	Bears 59¢	Bears −3	45.5
Bengals at Dolphins	Sun 1:00 PM	Bengals 75¢	Bengals −7	42.5
Raiders at Patriots	Sun 1:00 PM	Patriots 64¢	Patriots −3.5	45.5
Vikings at Saints	Sun 1:00 PM	Vikings 56¢	Vikings −1.5	42.5
Browns at Jets	Sun 1:00 PM	Jets 56¢	Jets −2.5	39.5
Colts at Steelers	Sun 1:00 PM	Steelers 58¢	Steelers −2.5	44.5
Texans at Titans	Sun 1:00 PM	Texans 77¢	Texans −7.5	37.5
Giants at Commanders	Sun 1:00 PM	Commanders 63¢	Commanders −3.5	43.5
Broncos at Chargers	Sun 4:05 PM	Broncos 64¢	Broncos −3.5	42.5
Lions at Cardinals	Sun 4:25 PM	Lions 70¢	Lions −5.5	54.5
49ers at Seahawks	Sun 4:25 PM	Seahawks 61¢	Seahawks −2.5	46.5
Ravens at Falcons	Sun 8:20 PM	Falcons 61¢	Falcons −3.5	43.5
Bills at Rams	Mon 8:15 PM	Rams 61¢	Rams −3	54.5

Ask The Sims

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Buccaneers at Cowboys, Thursday 8:15 PM ET

Tampa Bay is 0-4, lost outright as an 8.5-point home favorite to Cleveland, and goes to Dallas with Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie, at quarterback. The Buccaneers are last in the league in EPA per dropback and haven't scored more than 19 since Week 1. Dallas wins in shootouts, and I'd be hard pressed to see this offense create one. Dak Prescott at home in prime time: Cowboys -8.5. The full breakdown is here.

Eagles at Jaguars, Sunday 9:30 AM ET in London

This opened at Jaguars -3.5 and moved through seven, to 7.5 in some spots, because the Eagles' injury list keeps growing: Lane Johnson retired, Saquon Barkley is week to week, Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, and DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are banged up. Philadelphia went 0 for 13 on third down last week. Jacksonville is the better team. On a neutral field in London, outside of seven, I'm taking the points as gross as it feels: Eagles +7.5. The full breakdown is here.

Bears at Packers, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

The Packers are a bad team right now. The line is atrocious, they're 0-3-1 against the spread, and they only got by Tampa Bay 17-14 last week. They're also a field-goal dog at Lambeau in a division game, against a Bears team without Caleb Williams and a run defense that ranks 28th in EPA per carry. Jordan Love can still sling it. A three-point home dog in a very ugly game: Packers +3. The full breakdown is here.

Bengals at Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Ja'Marr Chase left last week early and Tee Higgins has an adductor injury, and both are legitimately questionable. If both miss, it's Mitchell Tinsley and Dohnte Meyers at receiver and a heavy load for Chase Brown. Miami is 0-4, without De'Von Achane, and scores 11.5 a game. With this much uncertainty it's only a lean, and gun to my head, it's the seven-point home dog: Dolphins +7. The full breakdown is here.

Raiders at Patriots, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

A lot of people will love the Patriots after they went into Buffalo and won as seven-point dogs. Drake Maye's biggest problem is turnovers: seven interceptions, three lost fumbles and ten sacks in four games. The Raiders lead the league in takeaways and rank second in EPA per play allowed, with Maxx Crosby and Nakobe Dean leading it. Outside a field goal, on the road: Raiders +3.5. The full breakdown is here.

Vikings at Saints, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

The Vikings are 4-0 with one offensive touchdown in their last three games; the rest is a punt return and field goals. The defense is first in the league in EPA per play allowed, but look at the quarterbacks it faced: Malik Willis, Tampa Bay, Tyson Bagent in a rainstorm. The Saints can't run, so if they win, it's because Tyler Shough goes off, and that's how I'm building parlays. Saints moneyline +114. The full breakdown is here.

Browns at Jets, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland has won three straight as an underdog and Deshaun Watson looks revitalized. The Jets ran 32 plays in Chicago last week and I have zero confidence in them with Aaron Glenn at the helm. They're still 2.5-point favorites, and that number makes me uncomfortable. Grabbing Cleveland here feels like a rat spot. For no reason other than the number: Jets -2.5. The full breakdown is here.

Colts at Steelers, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Through four weeks the Steelers haven't proven they should be favored against anyone. They needed a Cooper Rush pick-six to beat Atlanta, scored three in New England and just lost to Cleveland. The Colts' only bad game was Week 1 against Baltimore; they took Kansas City to overtime and beat Washington by three scores. I don't want the spread. A sprinkle on the road dog: Colts moneyline +124. The full breakdown is here.

Texans at Titans, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Both teams are 0-4. Houston is a 7.5-point road favorite, and its schedule explains some of the record: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Dallas. Tennessee scores 13.8 points a game, and most of Cam Ward's production last week came in garbage time. If the Texans don't handle the Titans, I don't know what to tell you. I'll lean it, but I'm not betting it: Texans -7.5. The full breakdown is here.

Giants at Commanders, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Jayden Daniels is expected back from another dislocated elbow, and Marcus Mariota is out behind him. One big hit and the Commanders are down to their third-string quarterback again. Jameis Winston is 2-0 as the Giants' starter, throwing to Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely against a defense allowing 30.5 a game. In a division game, Washington isn't a team I'll lay more than a field goal with. Giants +3.5. The full breakdown is here.

Broncos at Chargers, Sunday 4:05 PM ET

The Chargers are 0-4, and I can't remember the last time a team was hyped this much and turned out this bad. Denver has scored 39 of its 74 points in the fourth quarter and just 13 in the first half all season. That caught up to the Broncos in San Francisco, and I think it catches up again. We're not asking the Chargers to win, just to lose by less than 3.5: Chargers +3.5. The full breakdown is here.

Lions at Cardinals, Sunday 4:25 PM ET

If you're betting the Lions moneyline, I get it. To cover 5.5 on the road, you have to make some hard arguments: Detroit has allowed 30, 41, 24 and 32 points and hasn't covered once. Its secondary is a sieve, and Arizona's passing game, with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, is the one part of that team that can take advantage. A home dog against the league's worst defense: Cardinals +5.5. The full breakdown is here.

49ers at Seahawks, Sunday 4:25 PM ET

Both teams are very good. Seattle is the defending champion with a top-three defense, and San Francisco is 4-0 with the league's best offense by EPA and Brock Purdy playing as well as anyone. Nick Bosa is doubtful again and Kyle Juszczyk isn't expected to play. One of my least favorite games of the week, and I'll take the home team inside a field goal: lean Seahawks -2.5. The full breakdown is here.

Ravens at Falcons, Sunday 8:20 PM ET

Lamar Jackson has a rarer kind of ankle sprain and could miss multiple games. If you don't think he plays, be on the Falcons now; the line has already moved from 2.5 to 3.5. Tyler Huntley is the backup, and Atlanta's run defense is first in the league. Bijan Robinson is the best back in football and Michael Penix Jr. just has to be okay. I already bet it: Falcons -3.5. The full breakdown is here.

Bills at Rams, Monday 8:15 PM ET

The game of the week. The Bills are coming off a home loss to New England and get three points on Monday night; I thought this would be 2.5. The Rams have been good without being dominant: their win over a banged-up Eagles team came down to the final minutes, and Matthew Stafford missed a lot of big plays. Josh Allen is still a stud. Bills +3. The full breakdown is here.

Disagree With Me?

Good. Ask the Sims your version of any of these games before kickoff: best parlay if your guy goes off, best combo if it's a blowout, best parlay if the underdog wins. The Kalshi Combo Simulator is free, and it's what I'm using to build my parlays this week.

Nothing here is financial advice.

Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (CeeDee Lamb 2025.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.

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