Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
The Vikings are 4-0 and over the last three weeks they have scored one offensive touchdown. The other touchdown was a punt return. Everything else was field goals: 9-3 in Chicago, 23-16 in Tampa, 15-10 at home against Miami. Most people will be off Tyler Shough against Brian Flores' defense after the Saints gave up 45 to Atlanta. I'm going the other way: Saints moneyline +114.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET, Caesars Superdome
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Vikings Win By 2 Or More | 52-53¢ | Vikings −1.5 |
| Total: Over 42.5 Points | 48-49¢ | 42.5 |
| Moneyline: Vikings Win | 55-56¢ | Vikings -125 / Saints +105 |
On Kalshi, the Saints to win are 44 to 45 cents, about +125, a few cents better than the +114 at the books. Minnesota winning by two or more is 52 to 53 cents. The over at 42.5 is 48 to 49 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Vikings | Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings run game vs Saints run D | 18th | 32nd | Vikings O, clearly |
| Vikings passing game vs Saints pass D | 24th | 27th | even |
| Vikings pass protection vs Saints pass rush | 29th | 19th | Saints D |
| Vikings explosive plays vs Saints big-play D | 24th | 14th | Saints D |
| Saints run game vs Vikings run D | 2nd | 9th | Vikings D |
| Saints passing game vs Vikings pass D | 1st | 19th | Vikings D, clearly |
| Saints pass protection vs Vikings pass rush | 1st | 17th | Vikings D, clearly |
| Saints explosive plays vs Vikings big-play D | 15th | 19th | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Vikings, best: rushing yards (14th), ypc (16th), points allowed (1st). Worst: passing yards (32nd), success rate (32nd), explosive passes allowed (15th).
Saints, best: passing yards (4th), rushing efficiency (9th), pass defense yards (13th). Worst: explosive runs (32nd), ypc (30th), points allowed (32nd).
Four And Oh On Field Goals
Minnesota beat Miami 15-10 and failed to cover as a 10-point favorite. Kyler Murray went 27 of 37 for 247 yards with no touchdowns, T.J. Hockenson caught all 13 of his targets for 119, and Aaron Jones ran for 94. The offense went 8 of 17 on third down and did not score a touchdown. Since Week 1 the Vikings' only offensive touchdown is a 41-yard throw to Jordan Addison in Tampa. Minnesota ranks 25th in EPA per play.
The defense has done the work, and the numbers are as good as it gets: first in EPA per play allowed, first against the pass, second against the run, 12.8 points allowed per game. Look at the opponents, though. Malik Willis, a Tampa Bay team that is last in passing, Chicago in a rainstorm, and Jordan Love behind a line that can't block, who still had a big game with Matthew Golden and Christian Watson. Minnesota also ranks 15th in completions of 20-plus allowed, middle of the league.
New Orleans Has To Throw To Win
The Saints lost 45-24 at home to Atlanta, a game where they allowed 207 rushing yards. Shough went 30 of 48 for 286 yards and a touchdown, 2 of 10 on deep throws, and took 11 hits. Chris Olave caught eight passes for 116. The run game was 18 carries for 47 yards. Alvin Kamara had a couple of decent plays and two touchdowns, but they don't run block well, Kendre Miller has not done much, and Travis Etienne is on injured reserve.
That is the case for the Saints in one line: if they win, it is because Shough and the passing game go off. They cannot sustain winning while they can't run, and their defense is last in points allowed. Minnesota hasn't been able to move the ball either. In a dome, against an offense that has one touchdown in three weeks, I'll take the home team at plus money.
The Pick
Saints moneyline +114.On Kalshi, New Orleans to win is 44 to 45 cents.
If you think Minnesota's defense goes into New Orleans and puts up monster numbers again, you like the Vikings. I like the bounce back for Shough, even on a short week.
Ask The SimsThe Sims behind Stokastic.com's DFS tools have won players tens of millions of dollars, and now they build parlays. My build for this game is two things that only happen together: ask for the best parlay if the Saints win and Tyler Shough has a big game. Or ask your own script, like best Vikings parlay if Minnesota's defense dominates again. Free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Travis Etienne (NO). On injured reserve. The Saints' run game is Kamara and Miller.
- Minnesota's offense. One offensive touchdown in three weeks. Kyler Murray has not thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3.
- Indoors. Caesars Superdome. Weather is not a factor.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (WFT vs. Saints (51582989218).jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
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