Week 4 closes in the Superdome on Monday night, where the Saints host the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites with a 47.5 total. They'll have to do it without Travis Etienne, who landed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Thursday.
That injury reshuffles a backfield that was already a headache, and it's where the second play on this card comes from. The first comes from the receiver who should benefit from being the no-doubt-about-it go-to option.
Two plays. Two chances to finish Week 4 with a bang. Let's party.
Play #1: Atlanta Only Gives It Up Through the Air, 41¢ (+134 Effective)
Atlanta has played three games and has yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Pittsburgh, Carolina and Green Bay all found the end zone anyway, six times in total, and every single one of those scores came through the air from the 15-yard line or closer.
Which brings us to Chris Olave. He's been targeted 36 times through three weeks, a quarter of Shough's throws, and he's turned that into 27 catches for 375 yards. More importantly for our purposes, he's commanded 47% of the Saints' air yards, and three of his four red-zone targets came last week against Las Vegas. His lone touchdown so far was a 21-yarder against Baltimore in Week 2, so the end-zone production hasn't caught up to the volume yet, and that gap is exactly what I'm paying for.
FanDuel has Olave at +130, DraftKings and Caesars at +125 and BetMGM at +120. Kalshi's 41¢ works out to +134 after the fee, so that's the number I grabbed.
Play #2: A Backfield Without Its Lead Back, 25¢ (+280 Effective)
Etienne took 30 of New Orleans' carries through three weeks, including four in the red zone, and with him on IR, the early-down work is expected to fall to Kendre Miller, with Alvin Kamara handling the touches in space. Kamara hasn't done much with his so far: 18 carries for a grand total of 51 yards.
Miller already has a touchdown this season, an 8-yard run against Detroit in Week 1, and both of New Orleans' carries inside the 10 in that opener went to him. He's getting a featured role in a game the Saints are slightly favored to win, at a price that assumes he's still the third guy in line.
Here's what keeps this to a small stake: Atlanta is allowing just over 3 yards per carry (150 yards on 48 attempts) and, again, zero rushing touchdowns. Shough already plowed one in from the 1 against Baltimore, so he's a threat to vulture something from the goal line. But I'm convinced Miller has more juice than Kamara at this stage of their respective careers, so don't be surprised when it's Miller getting early goal-line work on Monday.
DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars all have Miller at +270, with BetMGM at +250. Kalshi's 25¢ works out to +280 after the fee.
How I'd Size It
A half unit on Olave and a quarter unit on Miller. The two tickets don't step on each other much: if Atlanta keeps forcing teams to throw near the goal line, that's Olave's ticket, and if the Saints can actually run it in against this front, Miller is the guy most likely to be carrying it.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Olave's 41¢ you're adding on 1.69¢, so you're really paying 42.69¢. On Miller's 25¢ it's 1.31¢, so 26.31¢. The fee peaks at even money, which is why the longer price gives up less of its edge to it. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
Both contracts sit on the Falcons at Saints touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Monday, October 5, 2026, 1:15 AM ET, with the effective column properly accounting for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave Yes 1+ TD | 41¢ | 42.69¢ | +134 | +130 (FanDuel) | ATL at NO |
| Kendre Miller Yes 1+ TD | 25¢ | 26.31¢ | +280 | +270 (DraftKings) | ATL at NO |
Miller's contract has traded about 11,000 so far and Olave's about 6,900, and each shows thousands of contracts sitting at the quoted price. Monday markets get busier as kickoff approaches, so the prices could move either way.
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Final Thoughts
A receiver soaking up nearly half his team's air yards against a defense that only gives it up through the air, and a back stepping into the lead role at a price that hasn't caught up. Olave's ticket misses about three times out of five and Miller's about three times out of four, so size them like it.
As always: half and quarter units, no chasing, and no hero sizing on a standalone game. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy Monday night. Oh, and thanks Bowers for the garbage time tuddy on Sunday. Keeps this touchdown train rolling.
— Lindy
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