The Chargers are still looking for their first win, and they have to find it in Seattle. I like the Seahawks, but I don't think they need Sam Darnold to throw it all over the field to get there.
So I picked the score first and the legs second. I typed a Seahawks win into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, then a Chargers upset, and kept the top three-leg combo for each.
Both Sides Shorthanded
Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-1) Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET · Lumen Field · CBS Stokastic Sims: Seahawks win 73%
Zach Charbonnet is out for Seattle. Brenen Thompson and Charlie Kolar are out for the Chargers, and Ladd McConkey is questionable. My read is a one-score Seahawks win that stays under control.
Darnold Doesn't Need Much
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Over 49.5 total points | NO | 69¢ (-223) |
| SEA wins by 14+ | NO | 69¢ (-223) |
| Sam Darnold 275+ passing yards | NO | 72¢ (-257) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near SEA 24-17 |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6¢ (+166) | 34.3¢ (+192) | 65% |
All three legs describe the same game. When Darnold stays short of a big yardage day, Seattle doesn't pile up points, so the total stays down and the margin stays inside two touchdowns.
Herbert Finds A Way
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert throws a TD pass | YES | 68¢ (-213) |
| Emanuel Wilson 60+ rushing yards | NO | 63¢ (-170) |
| Oronde Gadsden II 15+ receiving yards | YES | 70¢ (-233) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near LAC 23-20 |
|---|---|---|
| 30.6¢ (+227) | 30.0¢ (+233) | 44% |
A Herbert touchdown pass and Gadsden getting involved fit the same Chargers game, and Seattle's Emanuel Wilson held short of 60 keeps the home side's run game small. The edge is thin, though: the sims price is barely above the Kalshi legs. If the Kalshi number moves above the sims price before kickoff, skip it.
Build It Yourself
- Open LAC @ SEA in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
- Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script.
- Set legs to 3 and read the cards. The yellow Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit in 10,000 sims. Kalshi is the three legs bought one at a time, multiplied. Current Script is how often it hit in sims that finished near your score. When the Kalshi number is higher than the sims price, skip that ticket.
My Two Tickets
- Seahawks 24-17 (37.6¢ sims): NO on Over 49.5 total points, NO on SEA wins by 14+, NO on Sam Darnold 275+ passing yards.
- Chargers 23-20 (30.6¢ sims): YES on Justin Herbert throws a TD pass, NO on Emanuel Wilson 60+ rushing yards, YES on Oronde Gadsden II 15+ receiving yards.
Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day and move until kickoff. If your score isn't mine, type it into the simulator. It's free and it rebuilds the combos for whatever you pick.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
More on this: Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250 · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Winston Under 2 TDs · Dolphins vs Vikings Same Game Parlay: Gordon Held Under 30 · Jaguars vs Bengals Same Game Parlay: Tuten Under 70 · Jets vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Monangai Runs For 30
