Atlanta's best players just had monster games, and everyone wants their overs on Monday night. New Orleans can't stop the run. The sims lean the other way on most of the Atlanta yardage.
For these Falcons Saints player props, I typed the questions previews are asking into Ask the Sims in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator. It counts any plain-English question across 10,000 simulated games.
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-2) Monday, October 5 · 8:15 p.m. ET · Caesars Superdome · ESPN Stokastic Sims: Saints win 52%
Noah Fant is questionable for New Orleans. Prices are from Sunday night, October 4, and move until kickoff.
Falcons Saints Player Props Lean Under
Atlanta's plan is to run the ball, and a run-first game eats the clock. Fewer snaps for both passing games is why the sims land under on Penix, London and Olave.
Where the sims sit highest above the Kalshi price:
| Contract | Side | Sims | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. 300+ passing yards | NO | 91.2% | 84¢ (-525) |
| Michael Penix Jr. 250+ passing yards | NO | 70.8% | 64¢ (-178) |
| Drake London 100+ receiving yards | NO | 73.3% | 70¢ (-233) |
| Kendre Miller 15+ rushing yards | YES | 76.1% | 72¢ (-257) |
| Bijan Robinson 120+ rushing yards | NO | 80.4% | 76¢ (-317) |
| Chris Olave 100+ receiving yards | NO | 64.9% | 63¢ (-170) |
Penix Stays Grounded
The Saints' run defense ranks 27th, per Yahoo Sports, and previews call handing the ball to Bijan Robinson Atlanta's path to winning. That plan doesn't need a big Penix night.
My favorite is NO on Michael Penix Jr. 250+ passing yards: 70.8% in the sims, trading at 64¢ (-178) on Kalshi.
London Comes Back Down
London went for 194 yards at Green Bay last week, per Yahoo Sports. So I asked Ask the Sims how often he gets 100+.
He gets there in 26.7% of the sims, while YES trades at 32¢ (+213).
The tool flags the other side: NO on Drake London 100+ receiving yards at 70¢ (-233).
Kendre Miller Gets Touches
YES on Kendre Miller 15+ rushing yards hits in 76.1% of the sims at 72¢ (-257).
Bijan Under His Average
Robinson averages 145.4 scrimmage yards per game across 11 career prime-time games, the highest mark by any player since the merger, per ESPN and Yahoo Sports.
The sims get him to 145+ scrimmage yards in 35.7% of games.
On the ground, he reaches 100 in 34.4% of the sims, while YES trades at 37¢ (+170).
The answer card points to NO on Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing yards at 64¢ (-178). The wider gap sits one rung up, at NO on 120+ in the table above.
Shough Scores, Olave Cools
Olave topped 100 yards last week, per Yahoo Sports. The sims get him there 35.1% of the time, so I'm on NO on Chris Olave 100+ receiving yards at 63¢ (-170).
Shough has accounted for multiple offensive touchdowns in each of his past five games, the longest active streak in the NFL, per ESPN and Yahoo Sports.
I asked if he throws 2+ TD passes. YES on Tyler Shough 2+ passing TDs sits close to fair at 55¢ (-122), and the tool points to YES on Tyler Shough throws a TD pass at 85¢ (-567) instead.
After four fourth-quarter turnovers last week, per Yahoo Sports, the Saints finish with zero turnovers in 29.2% of the sims.
Ask Your Own Prop
- Open Falcons vs Saints in the simulator.
- Type the prop as a question into the Ask the Sims box under the controls.
- Read the Sims Result next to the Kalshi ask, then check the alt lines below it.
Questions to copy:
- How often does Bijan Robinson get 145+ rushing and receiving yards?
- How often does Tyler Shough throw 2+ TD passes?
- How often do the Saints have 0 turnovers?
My Prop Card
I'm on NO on Penix 250+, NO on London 100+ and YES on Kendre Miller 15+. All three fit Atlanta running it.
My side and total are in the Monday Night Football picks, and props get stacked in the Falcons vs Saints same game parlay. The simulator is free, so ask your own questions before kickoff.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
