Atlanta and New Orleans walk into the Superdome with the same record and the same problems, and the sims can barely split them on who wins. Where they do split from the prices is in how the Falcons win and how many points get scored. My Monday Night Football picks follow that gap: Atlanta by a touchdown or more, and the over.
Monday Night Football Picks
| Bet | Kalshi contract | Kalshi price | Sims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | YES on ATL wins by 7+ | 26¢ (+285) | 30.4% |
| Total | YES on Over 48.5 total points | 47¢ (+113) | 51.4% |
| Moneyline (Falcons) | NO on New Orleans wins | 46¢ (+117) | 48.1% |
Kalshi prices here are from Sunday night, October 4, and they move until kickoff.
The moneyline is a price call, not a call that Atlanta is the better team. The Saints still win slightly more of the sims. But the Falcons side, which on Kalshi is NO on the "New Orleans wins" contract, costs 46 cents, and Atlanta wins 48.1% of the sims. I'm paying less than the sims say it's worth. The bigger gaps sit on the ladders, though.
I ran every line through the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator and its Ask the Sims box, where you type a question in plain English and it counts the answer across 10,000 simulated games.
Saints Barely Favored
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-2) Monday, October 5 · 8:15 p.m. ET · Caesars Superdome · ESPN Stokastic Sims: Saints win 52%
Noah Fant is questionable for New Orleans. Per Saints.com and CBS Sports, Atlanta leads the all-time regular-season series 57-56, so a Saints win ties it.
Falcons Margins Run Hot
| Kalshi contract | Kalshi price | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| YES on ATL wins by 5+ | 31¢ (+223) | 35.1% |
| YES on ATL wins by 6+ | 30¢ (+233) | 33.3% |
| YES on ATL wins by 7+ | 26¢ (+285) | 30.4% |
| YES on ATL wins by 8+ | 22¢ (+355) | 25.8% |
| YES on ATL wins by 10+ | 18¢ (+456) | 22.7% |
Every Atlanta margin on the ladder lands more often in the sims than its price. When Atlanta wins, it tends to win big.
Per Yahoo Sports, the Saints' run defense ranks 27th, and Bijan Robinson put up 194 yards in last week's win at Green Bay. The tool's own pairings back it up: Atlanta by a touchdown shows up with big Bijan rushing games far more often than the prices imply.
I'm taking the touchdown line. For a bigger swing, the tool flags ATL wins by 10+ as the "more edge, more risk" version of the same bet.
Overs Near 48.5
| Kalshi contract | Kalshi price | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| YES on Over 46.5 total points | 55¢ (-122) | 58.0% |
| YES on Over 47.5 total points | 50¢ (-100) | 53.9% |
| YES on Over 48.5 total points | 47¢ (+113) | 51.4% |
| YES on Over 49.5 total points | 44¢ (+127) | 49.1% |
The over is my strongest pick. Over 48.5 is the line where a sims coin flip meets a price under 50 cents.
Tyler Shough has accounted for multiple offensive touchdowns in each of his past five games, per ESPN and Yahoo Sports. Per Yahoo Sports, New Orleans also gave up 35 to Las Vegas last week. The tool pairs the over with Shough throwing three or more TDs, which hits together far more often than the two prices multiplied.
Stack Them Together
I checked both picks at once like this:
- Open the Falcons vs Saints game in the simulator.
- Type the question into Ask the Sims: "How often do the Falcons win by 7+ and the game goes over 48.5 points?"
- Read "All Together" for the sims hit rate and "Legs multiplied" for the two Kalshi prices multiplied together.
| Combo | Sims together | Kalshi legs multiplied |
|---|---|---|
| ATL wins by 7+ and Over 48.5 total points | 16.2% (+517) | 12.2¢ (+720) |
The legs run about independent, so the edge comes from each leg. For more combos, see the Falcons vs Saints same game parlay.
Copy these into the box to test your own alt lines:
- How often do the Falcons win by 10+?
- How often does the game go over 51.5 points?
- How often do the Saints win by 3+ and the game goes under 45.5 points?
If you'd rather bet the players, the Falcons vs Saints player props run the same way. The simulator is free, so ask it any margin or total before kickoff.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
