Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver's Corners In Doubt

Pat Surtain II is doubtful with an ankle and Riley Moss questionable with his ribs on ESPN's Wednesday report for Thursday night. On Tuesday both were listed out. Denver's two starting corners are in doubt rather than gone, and the Sims moved with the report.

Stokastic's Sims, 10,000 runs of Thursday's 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff at Empower Field, have Seattle winning 57.3% of the time and Sam Darnold throwing more than Kalshi's prices say, just less than they said Tuesday. So the bets moved down a rung to the lines the Sims still clear by a wide margin, and one new leg came onto the card: Darnold's legs, the widest gap on the board.

Each bet below starts with the question I typed into Ask the Sims on Wednesday morning and the card it sent back: the Sims' answer, the Kalshi price beside it, and a verdict on the price. I will ask all four again Thursday afternoon and after the inactives post around 6:45 p.m. ET, and anything the Sims stop backing comes off the card.

What moved since Tuesday (Wednesday, 6:20 a.m. CT Sims): with the corners upgraded, Darnold 30+ attempts fell from 59.1% to 55.8% against an unchanged 54.7¢, so that leg is a cent of edge now and the buy is the 25-attempt line. Darnold 200+ passing yards fell from 68.0% to 64.0% against 65.6¢ and comes off the card; 19+ completions replaces it, 59.8% against 53.7¢. Bo Nix 10+ rushing yards rose from 68.2% to 73.2%. NO on Nix 35+ attempts is a coin flip now, 52.2% against 52.7¢, and comes off too.

Darnold Throws 25 Times

YES on Sam Darnold 25+ pass attempts · 78.2¢ (-360) on Kalshi · 85.4% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Sam Darnold have 25+ pass attempts?"

Wednesday morning: 85.4% against 78.2¢, 7¢ of edge per contract. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.

Darnold has thrown 25 or more times in two of three starts this season: 45 in the 379-yard loss to Washington and 29 against the 49ers, with 22 against the Chargers the exception. The Sims clear 25 in six games of seven, because Seattle averages 238 passing yards a game and this one is priced close, Seattle by 2.5 with a 40.5 total on ESPN's line. A quarterback in a one-score game throws into the fourth quarter.

The 30-attempt line was Tuesday's bet. With Surtain doubtful instead of out, the Sims trimmed it to 55.8%, a cent above its 54.7¢ price, so the bet moves down to the rung the Sims still clear by 7¢.

Darnold Completes 19

YES on Sam Darnold 19+ completions · 53.7¢ (-116) on Kalshi · 59.8% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Sam Darnold have 19+ completions?"

Wednesday morning: 59.8% against 53.7¢, 6¢ of edge per contract, the widest gap on Darnold's passing board. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.

The yards line was Tuesday's second bet, and it turned: 200+ passing yards is 64.0% in Wednesday's Sims against 65.6¢, so it comes off. The completions line did not turn. Darnold's three starts read 31, 13 and 18 completions, one clearance of 19, and the Sims still give him 19 in three games of five, because 25 attempts at his 65% completion rate is 16 and 30 attempts is 19.5. The completions follow the attempts, and the attempts are the bet above. The full ladder is on the Darnold completions page.

Nix Runs For 10

YES on Bo Nix 10+ rushing yards · 68.5¢ (-218) on Kalshi · 73.2% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Bo Nix rush for 10+ yards?"

Wednesday morning: 73.2% against 68.5¢, 5¢ of edge per contract. The price rose 4¢ since Tuesday and the Sims rose 5 points with it. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.

Nix has run for exactly 10 yards in each of the last two games and 7, 6 and 2 before that, so the game log says this hits as often as it misses. The Sims say nearly three games in four, and the reason is Seattle's pass rush. The Seahawks' front holds opponents to 166.8 passing yards a game, and a quarterback who cannot find a throw takes off. Denver's offense averages 19.4 points, and a lot of its first downs in the Sims come on Nix's legs.

The 15-yard line now pays about even money with the same edge, if you want the same idea at a better price.

Darnold Runs For 5

YES on Sam Darnold 5+ rushing yards · 51.8¢ (-107) on Kalshi · 62.3% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Sam Darnold rush for 5+ yards?"

Wednesday morning: 62.3% against 51.8¢, 10¢ of edge per contract, the widest gap on the whole board. Tap the card to ask your own question about this game.

This is the leg Tuesday's board did not have. Five rushing yards for a quarterback who does not run is the market's idea of a coin flip, and Kalshi has it at 50¢. Darnold has cleared it in all three starts: 5 yards on one carry against Washington, 6 on three against the Chargers, 5 on one against the 49ers. One scramble does it, and the Sims give him a scramble in 62% of games because Denver's pass rush gets home: Darnold was sacked five times against San Francisco and three times against the Chargers, and a quarterback who feels the rush steps up and runs.

The 10-yard line pays twice your money at 4¢ of edge for the same script. The Tuesday card on Bo Nix's attempts came off: NO on 35+ is 52.2% against 52.7¢ now, a coin flip at a coin-flip price.

Run your own Seahawks-Broncos script. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays the game 10,000 times and prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, free, no login.

Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?

The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator prices them in Polymarket's cents.