Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 1:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium
I thought I could sneak one out with the Saints last week. I was wrong. Tyler Shough looked lost, the run game was nowhere, and the Saints looked like a broken team. Before the line came out I expected New Orleans to be the dog here, and I would have loved them at two and a half or three. Instead, the Saints are favored on the road. I don't think they deserve that: Giants +1.5.
How Often Does It Actually Happen?A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like Malik Nabers to score: it hits in 42.8% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 37.6¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:
How often do the Giants cover +1.5? · How often does Malik Nabers have 100+ receiving yards? · Best 2-leg combo for this game
Tap the card for the full answer.
The Game Lines
| Bet | Kalshi (¢ ≈ % chance) | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Saints win by 2+ | 49¢ | Saints -1.5 |
| Over 45.5 points | 52¢ | 45.5 |
| Saints win | 51¢ | Saints -118 / Giants -102 |
The Saints Have No Run Game
New Orleans lost 23-13 at home to Minnesota and ran 43 plays. Shough went 16 of 25 for 96 with two interceptions, and the Saints had no completion of 20 or more yards and no run of 10 or more. Yes, it came against Brian Flores and one of the league's best defenses. When you can't run, you have to air it out the way Jordan Love did last week, and the Saints can't do that.
It doesn't matter whether it's Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller, and Travis Etienne Jr. is on injured reserve. The Saints fooled me at times. They competed with Detroit, then you realize the Lions have an awful defense. They beat Baltimore, and you think this team has life. That's the transitive property, and it gets you in trouble. They got destroyed by Atlanta in prime time and scored one offensive touchdown against Minnesota.
The Giants Keep Covering
New York tied Washington 27-27 on the road as a 3.5-point dog in a game it probably should have lost. The results are the results. Jameis Winston threw 54 times for 326 yards and three touchdowns with no picks, and Malik Nabers had 20 targets. The Giants have covered three straight, and the Saints have allowed 68 points in their last two games.
The Giants' run defense gave up 7.0 yards a carry to Washington. It's a problem, just not against an offense that averaged 3.2 last week.
The Pick
Giants +1.5.On Kalshi, the Saints not winning by 2+ costs about 54¢.
A home dog with a quarterback who's playing well, against a team that hasn't earned a road favorite's number.
Ask the Sims your own question about this game → Free, as many as you want, no login.
Injury Report
- New Orleans. Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) and Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) are on injured reserve. Kaden Elliss is questionable (calf).
- New York. Jaxson Dart (knee) and Brian Burns (knee) are on injured reserve; Jameis Winston starts.
My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Commanders vs. Giants 2025 20.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
More on this: Giants vs Commanders Picks: Fragile Favorite · Vikings vs Saints Picks: One Touchdown In Three Weeks · Falcons vs Saints TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi MNF Plays · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Skattebo Under 80 · Falcons Saints Player Props: Bet Against Penix and London
