Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026. My picks were made Wednesday; where the number has moved since, I say so.
If Week 5 taught us anything, it's that the players on the field aren't the only ones deciding the final score. Dan Quinn's Commanders should have beaten the Giants and ended up in a tie after the clock ran out on them. Nick Sirianni chose not to kick the ball out of the end zone at the end in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars won with no timeouts left. Coaches swing games, and coaches swing the number when you're betting the spread. Keep that in mind for Week 6: 14 games, four teams on a bye, a London game and Thursday night football.
| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi to win | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | Thu 8:15 PM | Seahawks 57¢ | Seahawks -2.5 | 40.5 |
| Texans at Jaguars | Sun 9:30 AM | Jaguars 57¢ | Jaguars -2.5 | 42.5 |
| Bears at Falcons | Sun 1:00 PM | Bears 54¢ | Bears -2.5 | 50.5 |
| Ravens at Browns | Sun 1:00 PM | Ravens 70¢ | Ravens -5.5 | 42.5 |
| Titans at Colts | Sun 1:00 PM | Colts 75¢ | Colts -7 | 44.5 |
| Jets at Patriots | Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots 76¢ | Patriots -7 | 43.5 |
| Saints at Giants | Sun 1:00 PM | Saints 51¢ | Saints -1.5 | 45.5 |
| Panthers at Eagles | Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers 50¢ | Panthers -1 | 40.5 |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | Sun 1:00 PM | Steelers 57¢ | Steelers -2.5 | 39.5 |
| Cardinals at Rams | Sun 4:05 PM | Rams 88¢ | Rams -12.5 | 51.5 |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs 79¢ | Chiefs -8.5 | 42.5 |
| Bills at Raiders | Sun 4:25 PM | Bills 69¢ | Bills -5.5 | 53.5 |
| Cowboys at Packers | Sun 8:20 PM | Packers 54¢ | Packers -1.5 | 53.5 |
| Commanders at 49ers | Mon 8:15 PM | 49ers 78¢ | 49ers -7.5 | 50.5 |
Seahawks at Broncos, Thursday 8:15 PM ET
Seattle's offense is Jaxon Smith-Njigba and not much else, and his drop helped cost them the 49ers game. I expect a bounce-back game from him, but Denver only has to slow down one guy, the total is 40.5, and the Broncos are a home dog on a short week. If this were three, it would be easy. At 2.5 I'm still taking Broncos +2.5. The full breakdown is here.
Texans at Jaguars, Sunday 9:30 AM ET in London
Jacksonville stayed in London after a win over the Eagles that Nick Sirianni handed them, and without Parker Washington's two touchdowns that offense stalls all game. Staying overseas isn't a real edge. Houston's defense is still good, Nico Collins is healthier, and the last five meetings were decided by a touchdown or less. Texans +3; most books are at +2.5 now. The full breakdown is here.
Bears at Falcons, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta led Baltimore by a touchdown midway through the fourth and lost to Tyler Huntley in overtime. That's the Falcons: great one week, finding ways to lose the next. Caleb Williams was a full participant in practice Wednesday, and Chicago's offense with him is a lot better than the one that turned it over five times in Green Bay. Bears -3, assuming Williams starts; some books are at -2.5 now. The full breakdown is here.
Ravens at Browns, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Lamar Jackson has a chance to play, and the line jumped from 4.5 to 5.5 on Wednesday, which says the market is leaning toward him. Cleveland's start was a mirage, and Deshaun Watson took eight sacks against the Jets. If Lamar plays, I'll lay the 5.5. If it's Tyler Huntley, I'm out. For now it's a lean: Ravens -5.5, if Lamar plays. The full breakdown is here.
How Often Does It Actually Happen?A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. People see a 12.5-point dog and assume it never wins. The Cardinals win 17.7% of the Sims at the Rams, and Kalshi sells a Cardinals win at 13.8¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login: How often do the Cardinals win? · How often do the Commanders win? · How often do the Panthers win and Bryce Young throw for 250+ yards?
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Titans at Colts, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee is 11-27-1 against the spread since 2024, scored three points against Houston, and has scored 10 or fewer in three of five games. Indianapolis hasn't been great, and Daniel Jones went 1 for 10 deep in Pittsburgh. Seven is a big number in the division. Until the Titans can score on anybody, I'm laying it: Colts -7. The full breakdown is here.
Jets at Patriots, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Drake Maye just threw for 374 and four touchdowns against a Raiders team I thought could hang, and New England's defense keeps making good offenses look lost. I love Garrett Wilson, but the Jets can't get him the ball. The Patriots are 7-2 against the spread as home favorites since 2024, and A.J. Brown could be back. Patriots -7. The full breakdown is here.
Saints at Giants, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Tyler Shough threw for 96 yards against Minnesota and the Saints had no run game at all. I thought New Orleans would be a dog here, and I'd have loved them at three. Instead they're favored on the road against a Giants team that has covered three straight with Jameis Winston playing well. Giants +1.5. The full breakdown is here.
Panthers at Eagles, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Eagles have lost three straight, including a blown halftime lead against the Rams and a lead with eight seconds left in London, and the sideline looks like a team in crisis. The NFC East stinks, though, and the division is right there. Carolina is good off a bye, and home teams back from an international game against a team off its bye are 0-3 since 2005. That's a tiny sample, but it worries me. I don't think Philadelphia drops a fourth straight: Eagles +1. Shop this number. The full breakdown is here.
Steelers at Buccaneers, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay's win in Dallas says more about the Cowboys' defense than about an undrafted rookie quarterback. Pittsburgh's defense isn't elite, but it held the Colts to 2.75 yards a carry, and Jaylen Warren is a monster now that they're letting him loose. I don't usually lay points with the Steelers on the road. I'm doing it here: Steelers -2.5. The full breakdown is here.
Cardinals at Rams, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Arizona has lost four straight, and nothing seems to matter. People assume a 12.5-point dog never wins. In 10,000 simulations the Cardinals win about 18% of the time, and Kalshi sells it at about 14 cents. I'm not betting the side myself; I'm in the prop market here. If you're asking, I'm not laying this many points in a division game: Cardinals +12.5. The full breakdown is here.
Chargers at Chiefs, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
The Chargers are 0-5, they've failed to cover six straight, and Justin Herbert looks broken. Kansas City is also 12-20 against the spread as a favorite since 2024, and the Chargers have covered the last four meetings by keeping it to one possession. I hate it, and I'll keep being an idiot: Chargers +8.5. The full breakdown is here.
Bills at Raiders, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
I was wrong about the Raiders last week, and I'm going back to them. The Bills played overtime on Monday night and fly across the country on a short week, and their defense just gave up 383 passing yards. A 5.5-point home dog off an embarrassing loss against a team off a huge emotional win is the gross spot we sometimes like: Raiders +5.5. The full breakdown is here.
Cowboys at Packers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET
A week ago Dallas would have been favored in this game. Then Tampa Bay won in Arlington and Green Bay crushed Chicago, and the line flipped. I don't buy that Green Bay repeats it with a run game at 3.0 a carry and shaky pass blocking. Dallas is on extended rest and getting healthier. I think it's a shootout that comes down to the wire: Cowboys +1.5. The full breakdown is here.
Commanders at 49ers, Monday 8:15 PM ET
Washington's clock blunder against the Giants is on Dan Quinn, and Jayden Daniels has to own some of it too. Shouldn't the unbeaten 49ers be favored by 9.5 or 10 after that? They're 7.5, and that gets us outside of seven. Washington can lose by a touchdown and still cover. Ask the Sims how often the Commanders win this game; it'll surprise you. Commanders +7.5. The full breakdown is here.
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Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (55091195763).jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
