Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 4:05 PM ET, SoFi Stadium
Things don't look good for Arizona right now. It doesn't matter who's at quarterback or who's coaching. Most people see a 12.5-point dog and think it wins 1% of the time. In 10,000 simulations, the Cardinals win this game about 18% of the time. Do I like this game? No. Am I betting the side myself? No. If you're here for a pick, you're not going to catch me laying this many points: Cardinals +12.5.
How Often Does It Actually Happen?A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like a Cardinals win: it hits in 17.7% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 13.8¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:
How often do the Cardinals win? · How often do the Cardinals cover +12.5? · How often does Puka Nacua score?
Tap the card for the full answer.
The Game Lines
| Bet | Kalshi (¢ ≈ % chance) | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Rams win by 13+ | 51¢ | Rams -12.5 |
| Over 51.5 points | 51¢ | 51.5 |
| Rams win | 88¢ | Rams -850 / Cardinals +575 |
Arizona Is Bad
The Cardinals lost 45-21 at home to Detroit for their fourth straight loss. Jacoby Brissett threw 46 times for 292 and took five sacks, and Jeremiyah Love had 12 carries for 22 yards with James Conner and Trey Benson both on injured reserve. The defense allowed four completions of 20 or more yards and forced no turnovers. Arizona also traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston.
The Rams Are On A Short Week
Los Angeles lost 37-34 in overtime to Buffalo on Monday night. It wasn't a bad loss, but those are the games you want against the best teams. Matthew Stafford threw 55 times, and Puka Nacua had 24 targets. The problem was the run defense: Buffalo ran for 6.3 yards a carry. Now the Rams turn around on a short week without left tackle Alaric Jackson, who's suspended.
The Props
Arizona at 14 cents to win is a real edge on the moneyline, even if I'm not betting it. The bigger use for me is grounding the props. It's how I landed on Blake Corum to score at 23 cents on Monday, when the Sims had him scoring 36% of the time.
The Pick
Cardinals +12.5.On Kalshi, the Rams not winning by 13+ costs about 52¢.
A division game, a bad team, and a backdoor cover that's always in play at this number. I'm sticking to the prop market in this game myself.
Ask the Sims your own question about this game → Free, as many as you want, no login.
Injury Report
- Arizona's backfield. James Conner (foot) and Trey Benson (knee) are on injured reserve.
- Los Angeles. Alaric Jackson is suspended; Myles Garrett and Terrance Ferguson are on injured reserve.
- Rest. The Rams play Sunday after a Monday night overtime game.
My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: Sewageboy via Wikimedia Commons (Nacua 731.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
More on this: Bills vs Rams TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi MNF Plays · Bills vs Rams Monday Night Picks: Back The Bounce · Lions vs Cardinals Picks: The Secondary Is A Sieve · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Skattebo Under 80 · The Backdoor Is Open: Cardinals vs 49ers Picks
