Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
This is the game of the week, and what a way to close it. The Bills are coming off a home loss to New England and getting three points on Monday night. I thought this would be inside of three, 2.5 if anything. The Rams have been good this year, but they aren't a team you bet every week and they haven't been dominant: Bills +3.
Kickoff: Monday, October 12, 8:15 PM ET, SoFi Stadium, ESPN
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Rams Win By 3 Or More | – | Rams −3 |
| Total: Over 54.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 54.5 |
| Moneyline: Rams Win | 60-61¢ | Rams -162 / Bills +136 |
On Kalshi, the Rams winning by three or more is 54 to 55 cents, and the Rams to win are 60 to 61 cents, about -155. The over at 54.5, tied for the highest total of the week, is 49 to 50 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Bills | Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills run game vs Rams run D | 3rd | 10th | Bills O |
| Bills passing game vs Rams pass D | 5th | 4th | even |
| Bills pass protection vs Rams pass rush | 15th | 23rd | Bills O |
| Bills explosive plays vs Rams big-play D | 1st | 1st | even |
| Rams run game vs Bills run D | 24th | 17th | Rams O |
| Rams passing game vs Bills pass D | 28th | 18th | Rams O |
| Rams pass protection vs Bills pass rush | 10th | 10th | even |
| Rams explosive plays vs Bills big-play D | 27th | 14th | Rams O, clearly |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Bills, best: scoring (1st), explosive passes (1st), run stuffs (9th). Worst: pass protection (15th), passing yards (10th), pass defense yards (29th).
Rams, best: passing yards (2nd), ypc (4th), pass defense yards (1st). Worst: scoring (19th), passing efficiency (18th), run stuffs (24th).
Buffalo Off A Loss
The Bills lost 29-26 at home to New England as seven-point favorites, their first loss and first non-cover. Josh Allen went 23 of 34 for 253 with a touchdown and an interception, Keon Coleman caught six for 116, and James Cook ran for 75. Buffalo is still first in the league in scoring at 31.8 points a game and second in EPA per play.
The defense is the reason this line isn't Buffalo -1. It is 29th in EPA per play allowed and 28th against the pass. On a 54.5 total, though, that cuts both ways, and Allen is still a stud.
The Rams Haven't Been Dominant
Los Angeles beat Philadelphia 24-20 and covered as a 3.5-point favorite, and it came down to the final few minutes against a banged-up Eagles team. Matthew Stafford went 32 of 51 for 317 with no touchdowns and two interceptions; he made some big plays and missed a lot of them. Puka Nacua was back and caught nine for 125, and Kyren Williams scored twice.
The Rams are 2-2, with a 27-7 home loss to San Francisco and a loss in Denver. The defense is fourth in EPA per play allowed and fourth against the pass, which is the real strength. Until they are dominant, I'm not laying a full field goal with them against this quarterback.
The Pick
Bills +3.On Kalshi, the closest contract is the Rams not winning by three or more, 45 to 46 cents; a Rams win by exactly three pushes at +3 and loses that contract.
I'll take the team coming off a bad division loss, on the road, with the best quarterback on the field.
Ask The SimsThe Sims behind Stokastic.com's DFS tools have won players tens of millions of dollars. Now they build parlays. Ask them about the game of the week any way you see it: best parlay if Josh Allen has a huge game, best combo if it's a shootout over 54.5, best Rams parlay if Puka Nacua goes for 100. Every script, its own parlay, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Puka Nacua (LA). Back last week, nine catches for 125.
- Buffalo's pass defense. 28th in EPA per dropback allowed. The total reflects it.
- Indoors. SoFi Stadium. Weather is not a factor.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Josh Allen SEPT2021.jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
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