Well, that was fun! Sunday's article consisted of three tight ends, and wouldn't you know it, three touchdowns. Brock Bowers got the party started in the first quarter of his game, Sam LaPorta took one in from 38 yards out in the second, and Trey McBride put up a glorious garbage time score to sweep the Sunday article. God, I love the NFL this year.
So yeah, we're absolutely running it back with another tight end on Monday night, as well as a longer odds play on a wide receiver on that same side. Buffalo visits SoFi Stadium as a 3.5-point underdog with a 54.5 total, and it'll do it without Josh Palmer, and potentially D.J. Moore who is questionable with a shoulder injury. Those two have combined for 29 targets and 44% of the Bills' air yards, and somebody has to catch those balls.
Hopefully it's one of these two, both priced best on Kalshi.
Play #1: Buffalo's Targets Are Up for Grabs, 33¢ (+189 Effective)
Dalton Kincaid has been the most efficient tight end Josh Allen could ask for: 15 catches on 19 targets for 270 yards, 18 yards per catch, a 63% success rate and 0.62 EPA per target. He's drawn 21% of Buffalo's air yards on a 12.6-yard average depth of target, and he scored from 16 yards out in Week 2.
The volume dipped the last two weeks, three targets and then two, but that came with Moore and Palmer both available. Palmer is out Monday and Moore is questionable, which leaves a lot of looks without a home.
The matchup is the hard part. The Rams have been the toughest draw in the league for tight ends, allowing just 85 yards to the position all season at -0.38 EPA per target, and their pass defense ranks second-best by EPA per dropback. Allen also has six of Buffalo's 10 carries inside the 5 and seven rushing touchdowns, so plenty of the Bills' goal-line scores never touch a pass catcher.
DraftKings has Kincaid at +185, Caesars at +179 and FanDuel at +175. Kalshi's 33¢ works out to +189 after the fee.
Play #2: The Other Beneficiary on the Outside, 27¢ (+252 Effective)
If Moore can't go, Keon Coleman is the receiver most likely to soak up the outside targets, and he's been ruthlessly (and surprisingly) efficient when he gets them: 14 catches on 16 targets for 217 yards, a 75% success rate and 1.18 EPA per target. He's coming off his best game of the season against New England, six catches for 116 yards and a 34-yard touchdown on seven targets, and he played 78% of the snaps.
The same Rams defense applies here, and it's been even nastier deep, allowing -0.61 EPA on throws of 20-plus air yards, the best mark in the league. Coleman has just two red-zone targets all season, so this one probably needs a big play, and it gets the smaller stake.
FanDuel has Coleman at +240, Caesars at +230 and DraftKings at +225. Kalshi's 27¢ works out to +252 after the fee.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Kincaid's 33¢ you're adding on 1.55¢, so you're really paying 34.55¢. On Coleman's 27¢ it's 1.38¢, so 28.38¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff (especially Moore), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
Both contracts sit on the Bills at Rams touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Monday, October 12, 2026, 12:45 AM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid Yes 1+ TD | 33¢ | 34.55¢ | +189 | +185 (DraftKings) | BUF at LAR | 0.5u |
| Keon Coleman Yes 1+ TD | 27¢ | 28.38¢ | +252 | +240 (FanDuel) | BUF at LAR | 0.25u |
Coleman's contract has traded about 6,300 so far and Kincaid's about 3,900. Kincaid's only shows about 1,900 contracts sitting at the quoted price, so bigger orders may push it up a tick.
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Final Thoughts
A tight end and a receiver stepping into the targets Buffalo just lost, against a defense that won't make it easy. Kincaid's ticket misses about two times out of three and Coleman's nearly three times out of four, so size them like it.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing on a Monday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the nightcap.
— Lindy
More on this: Falcons vs Saints TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi MNF Plays · Buccaneers vs Cowboys TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi TNF Plays · Steelers vs Browns TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi TNF Plays · Eagles vs Bears TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi MNF Plays · Best Kalshi Anytime TD Props: Three Mispriced Sunday Plays
