Week 2 was carnage. Pure carnage. The kind of carnage that turned every NFL team's injury report into a CVS receipt. Jaxson Dart's regular season ended on the seventh play of Monday night. The Bears are down Caleb Williams (hamstring), and Tyson Bagent just cleared concussion protocol after a real sweat. Dallas Goedert is out a few weeks with a sprained MCL. Puka Nacua's hip is a problem. Tack on Nico Collins, Alec Pierce, Nick Bosa... Just pain everywhere.
But when the going gets tough, the tough get going. Or in my case, I just try to make actual winning trades like in Week 1 as opposed to whatever heck happened to me and everyone else in Week 2. Just keep in mind that rosters are getting reshuffled by the day, plus there are tons of questionable tags heading into Sunday, so pay close attention to active/inactives 90 minutes before kickoff. Oh, and let's deploy these three humans best available on Kalshi to waltz into the end zone at some point on Sunday. Easy game!
To the order book we go.
Play #1: Jonathan Taylor, 56¢ (-137 Effective)
Let's start with the most boring stat in football, which also happens to be the best one for this exercise: every single Colts carry inside the 10-yard line this season has gone to Jonathan Taylor. Count 'em: all six. Stretch it out to the red zone and he has 10 of Indianapolis' 11 carries, and inside the 5 he's five-for-five, which explains the four rushing touchdowns through two games (one of them from 24 yards out, in case you were worried it was all plunges).
The workload around it is just as greedy. Taylor has 43 of the Colts' 52 carries, has played 89% and 94% of the snaps in the first two games, and Indianapolis has been deadly efficient in said red-zone turning six of its seven trips into touchdowns. The honest pushback is Houston's run defense, which has held opponents to -0.18 EPA per rush and is legitimately good at life. But the Texans have also allowed touchdowns on five of the eight red-zone trips they've faced (see: Josh Allen), and once the Colts get there, we know who's getting the ball.
DraftKings has Taylor at -145, BetMGM and FanDuel are at -155 and Caesars is at -157. Kalshi's 56¢ works out to -137 after the fee, so you're buying a goal-line monopoly at a discount on the prediction market.
Play #2: Travis Kelce, 36¢ (+166 Effective)
Welcome to Miami (his wife sang the 'New York' version but I honestly can't do another Swiftie tie-in and feel good about my life). Through two weeks the Dolphins are allowing 0.48 EPA per dropback, the worst mark in the league, with opposing passers succeeding on 59% of their dropbacks and throwing five touchdowns. And when opponents get inside the 20, Miami has allowed a touchdown on eight of nine trips, which is the kind of hospitality you usually have to tip for.
And Kelce's role is trending the right way heading into this one. His snap share jumped from 71% in the opener to 85% in the 33-30 shootout with Indianapolis, where he drew 11 targets and caught nine of 'em for 101 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City has piled up 11 red-zone trips in two games, tied for the second-most in the league, and a spread sitting at 10.5 says the books expect plenty more of those Sunday. The fine print: Kelce has exactly one red-zone target this season, plus Kenneth Walker III is an absolute monster, but that's the entire reason this price sits where it does.
DraftKings and BetMGM both have Kelce at +140, Caesars is at +138 and FanDuel is at +135. Kalshi's 36¢ is +166 after the fee, the biggest gap between the exchange and the books on this card.
Play #3: Trey McBride, 32¢ (+198 Effective)
Trey McBride was a bright spot in a dim, dark world for me last week. I deployed him, and he instantly found the end zone from 2 yards out, a personality trait I really respect in a man. So after that gracious act of kindness, there's no way I'm not going back to the well on the Cardinals' main target hog. Kyler Murray is a Minnesota Viking now (still weird to type), and Jacoby Brissett has responded to running the offense by throwing to McBride just about every time he looks up. McBride has 23 of Arizona's 68 targets, a 34% share that would be elite for a wide receiver, and six of the team's nine red-zone targets. Four of those came inside the 10, three were thrown into the end zone, and both of his touchdowns came from 3 yards and in.
The 49ers are the toughest defense on this card, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise: San Francisco has allowed touchdowns on just two of six red-zone trips and a grand total of 52 yards to tight ends all season. But Nick Bosa is out, the Niners are laying 8.5, and a Cardinals team trailing in the second half is a Cardinals team feeding its best receiver in the exact spots where Brissett has already shown his hand.
FanDuel has McBride at +195, the best number at a book, with Caesars at +178 and DraftKings at +175. Kalshi's 32¢ is +198 after the fee. It's a thin edge, but the best number is the best number, and right now it lives on the exchange.
How I'd Size It
A half unit deployed on Taylor and a quarter unit each on Kelce and McBride. These are three different games, so none of them leans on the same script, and the two 1 PM kickoffs will be settled before McBride's 4:05 window even starts. Taylor is the favorite you're buying at a discount, Kelce is the biggest price gap on the card, and McBride is his offense's go-to target whose best number happens to live on the exchange. Taylor gets the heavier stake because the goal line is all his; the two tight ends get the lighter touch.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, that means for McBride's 32¢ you're adding on 1.52¢, so you're really paying 33.52¢. On Taylor's 56¢ it's 1.72¢, so 57.72¢, which is close to the most the fee ever takes because it peaks at even money. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
All three contracts sit on their own game's touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Saturday, September 26, 2026, 1:04 PM ET, with the effective column properly accounting for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor Yes 1+ TD | 56¢ | 57.72¢ | -137 | -145 (DraftKings) | HOU at IND |
| Travis Kelce Yes 1+ TD | 36¢ | 37.61¢ | +166 | +140 (DraftKings) | KC at MIA |
| Trey McBride Yes 1+ TD | 32¢ | 33.52¢ | +198 | +195 (FanDuel) | ARI at SF |
Kelce's contract has traded about 14,400 with 12,600 still open. McBride's sits around 12,000 traded and Taylor's around 8,200, with nearly all of it still open on both. One heads-up on Kelce: only about 400 contracts were sitting at 36¢ when I checked, so a bigger order may fill a cent or two higher. Every one of these prices could be moving before kickoff, so stay alert.
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Final Thoughts
Sunday comes down to three offenses that have already told us where the ball goes when it matters most. Kalshi has the best price on all three, which makes deploying them the easy part of the afternoon.
Let's sweep and make it an afternoon to remember.
— Lindy
More on this: Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props? · 49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out · Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards · Take The Points: NFL Week 3 Predictions for Every Game
