Overnight into August 20, the Time Person of the Year market stopped hedging and picked its favorite. Zohran Mamdani's contract traded 101,441 lots in 24 hours on Kalshi, 98 percent of everything the 25-name board traded in that window and 44 times the other 24 names combined, running him from a 28-cent close to prints as high as 71 cents before cooling to a book of 35 bid, 36 offered. The favorite is now twice the price of second place. Two weeks ago we handed this whole board to an eight-model AI panel, price-blind, carrying only the verified, dated 2026 record, and that panel's read has not changed: it faded Mamdani at 28 cents and it fades him harder at 36. What has changed is everything underneath him, because almost every other gap the panel flagged has spent those two weeks closing in the panel's direction. Where the repricing left real mispricings, and where the market quietly agreed with the machines, is the story of this page.
The Quick Answer
Zohran Mamdani is the clear Kalshi favorite for TIME Person of the Year 2026 at 35/36 cents, after 101,441 contracts traded in the 24 hours through 5:28 UTC on August 20, about 98 percent of the entire board's daily flow, with a stray print as high as 71 cents. He leads Pope Leo XIV (17/18¢), Donald Trump (13/14¢) and Elon Musk (11/12¢). Our eight-model price-blind panel's August 7 read blended him to just 4.5%, and that market-versus-model gap, 24 points then, is roughly 31 now, the widest live split in this series. The full 26-outcome board, the anatomy of the move, and the two prices the panel still calls wrong are below.
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The Board
All 25 listed contracts plus the panel's field estimate, sorted by the panel's post-revision blend. Kalshi midpoints are as of August 20, 2026, 5:28 UTC; the AI blend is frozen at the panel's August 7 run and gets re-scored, not hand-adjusted, when the panel next sits.
| Candidate | Kalshi (Aug 20) | AI Blend (after revision) |
|---|---|---|
| Any Unlisted Winner (The Field) | not offered | 24.0% |
| Donald Trump | 13.5¢ | 13.1% |
| Péter Magyar | 5.5¢ | 9.8% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 5.5¢ | 6.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 6.5¢ | 6.2% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 17.5¢ | 4.8% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 35.5¢ | 4.5% |
| Reid Wiseman | 3.5¢ | 3.0% |
| Victor Glover | 4.5¢ | 2.9% |
| Christina Koch | 6.5¢ | 2.9% |
| Jeremy Hansen | 4¢ | 2.8% |
| James Talarico | 4¢ | 2.0% |
| Xi Jinping | 3¢ | 2.0% |
| Elon Musk | 11.5¢ | 1.7% |
| AI | 4.5¢ | 1.7% |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 4¢ | 1.6% |
| Marco Rubio | 3¢ | 1.5% |
| Sam Altman | 8.5¢ | 1.5% |
| Bad Bunny | 6.5¢ | 1.3% |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4.5¢ | 1.2% |
| Dario Amodei | 8.5¢ | 1.2% |
| ChatGPT | 4.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Alysa Liu | 1.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Lionel Messi | 6.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Taylor Swift | 3¢ | 0.6% |
| Jerome Powell | 4.5¢ | 0.5% |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. One methods note: the panel prices the single question "who is honored" as a distribution summing to roughly 100. Because a joint selection pays every listed name it encompasses, correlated names, the four astronauts above all, carry a shared scenario's probability and would pay together or not at all; their contract-level odds are not independent. And the overround is worth a sentence of its own: the listed midpoints now sum to about 180 cents, up from about 176 at the panel's run, because Mamdani added seven cents without the rest of the board giving many back.
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The 24 Hours That Repriced The Board
The move itself deserves its own numbers, because entertainment boards almost never print a day like this. Mamdani's contract closed August 19 at 28 cents, where it had sat, within a cent or two, since our August 9 build. In the 24 hours through 5:28 UTC on August 20 it traded 101,441 contracts. The other 24 names combined traded about 2,300 in the same window: Pope Leo XIV did 259, Donald Trump 1,174, Elon Musk exactly 2. The daily candle shows the sweep printed as high as 71 cents at its peak before cooling back through the high-30s; the book now sits 35 bid, 36 offered, one cent wide. That single day lifted the contract's lifetime volume to 432,028, about 43 percent of everything this million-contract board has ever matched, with open interest at 327,913.
| Contract | Aug 7 price | Aug 20 price | Panel blend (Aug 7) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 28.5¢ | 35.5¢ | 4.5% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 19.5¢ | 17.5¢ | 4.8% |
| Donald Trump | 13.5¢ | 13.5¢ | 13.1% |
| Elon Musk | 12.5¢ | 11.5¢ | 1.7% |
| Péter Magyar | 2.5¢ | 5.5¢ | 9.8% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4¢ | 6.5¢ | 6.2% |
| Reid Wiseman | 7.5¢ | 3.5¢ | 3.0% |
The most interesting row is not the favorite. Péter Magyar, the panel's biggest upward repricing at 9.8% against what was then a 2.5-cent contract, has more than doubled to 5.5 cents. Mojtaba Khamenei went from 4 cents to 6.5 cents, past the panel's 6.2% blend. Reid Wiseman's astronaut contract fell from 7.5 cents to 3.5 cents, almost exactly onto the panel's 3.0%. Since the panel sat, quiet drift has moved nearly every price it disputed toward its number. The exceptions are the top of the board, where the market barely trimmed the Pope and then bet six figures of contracts in a single day that the machines are wrong about the mayor.
What set off the sweep, the tape does not say, and we will not invent a headline for it. Nothing in the market's own settlement calendar changed on August 19, and none of the four falsifiers the panel named in August (midterms, the war's endgame, a shortlist, a late newsmaker) has occurred. What is checkable is the flow: conviction-sized, one-sided, and concentrated in a single name on a one-cent-wide book.
The Market
Each contract resolves Yes if its candidate is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. The settlement fine print does real work here: if TIME chooses multiple people jointly, every listed person encompassed by the choice pays, and the exchange's own rules use a joint-selection example. A group choice can also encompass a listed individual, which is exactly what happened in 2025, when "The Architects of AI" put eight named tech figures on the cover. There is no contract for an unlisted winner: if the cover goes to someone, or something, not on this board, all 25 contracts resolve No. That structural hole is where our panel planted its flag. The full mechanics of how and when these contracts pay out are in how Kalshi settlement works.
Three timestamps: panel verdicts were generated the afternoon of August 7, 2026, price-blind; the original prices on this page were fetched at 15:20 UTC the same day; every market number above was re-fetched from the exchange at 5:28 UTC on August 20, 2026, after the overnight repricing. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, availability varies by state as of August 2026.
The Year The Board Is Trying To Price
The card each seat read carried the 2026 ledger, every fact dated and sourced. The compressed version, because the reader deserves to see what the editors will be weighing:
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A WAR And A Succession In Iran. A U.S.-Israel war on Iran unfolded in 2026; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's third Supreme Leader on March 8. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has been described in April reporting as running Iran's strategic matters during the war. Benjamin Netanyahu led Israel through all of it. Three of those men are on the board.
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Zohran Mamdani Took Office January 1 as New York's first Muslim mayor, its first of South Asian descent, and its youngest leader in generations, elected on an affordability platform that made him the most-covered new politician in America.
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Péter Magyar Ended Viktor Orbán's 16-Year Rule on April 12, winning Hungary's election in a landslide, 53.6 percent and 138 of 199 seats. TIME itself profiled him two days later as the man who ended the Orbán era.
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Artemis 2 Flew. April 1-10, the first crewed mission around the Moon since Apollo 17: Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Jeremy Hansen. All four are listed, and the four-names-one-mission structure matters under the joint-selection rule.
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Donald Trump's Second-Term Year Two ran through the middle of nearly everything: the Iran war, and a Nobel nomination wave in which at least seven governments cited an India-Pakistan ceasefire, a Gaza agreement, and a Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire.
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The Rest Of The Board: Alysa Liu won Olympic gold in February, the first American women's figure-skating title in 24 years. Bad Bunny headlined the Super Bowl LX halftime show. Jerome Powell handed the Fed to Kevin Warsh in May. James Talarico won the Texas Democratic Senate primary in March and faces November. Lionel Messi captained Argentina to the World Cup final and lost it 1-0 to Spain. And the AI candidates, Musk, Altman, Amodei, "AI" itself, ChatGPT, carry a specific handicap: TIME just honored the Architects of AI in 2025.
Zohran Mamdani At 36 Cents: What The New Favorite Price Implies
A 36-cent contract implies better than a one-in-three chance that a first-year mayor beats a wartime president, a new pope, a new Iranian supreme leader, and every unlisted group scenario TIME has reached for in half of recent years. That is a strong claim, and the market is not making it casually: it just moved nearly a quarter of the contract's lifetime volume in a single day. The bull case has real substance. TIME placed Mamdani on its 2026 TIME100 list back on April 15, the same editorial-tell class the panel weighted so heavily for Magyar. His national profile has kept compounding through the year rather than fading after January. And the affordability-left story he anchors is one of the two named narratives a November midterm cycle could re-validate.
The counterweight is the panel's frozen August 7 read, which was never a case against the story. It was a case about calendar mechanics: his inauguration was January 1, the single furthest point from a December editorial meeting, and the middle of 2026 belonged to a war, a succession in Tehran, and a continental election upset.
"Mamdani is the strongest challenger narratively — a first-Muslim NYC mayor governing on affordability is exactly the December-cover profile TIME likes — but mayors rarely clear the bar in a war-and-midterm year, and his story peaked in January." (Claude Opus)
The seats split hard on him then: Claude Fable held him at 9.3% even after revision, while Gemini cut him to half a percent, its lowest number on any listed name. Note what the fade means at the new price. At 28.5 cents the panel said the market was paying about 24 points too much for name recognition; at 35/36 the same frozen read says about 31. Either the machines are missing something the flow can see, which the midterm falsifier will test on November 3, or a day that carried 98 percent of the board's volume moved the price further from the announcement-day answer. The panel's numbers do not update by vibes; this board gets re-run and re-scored, and the blend column will move only when a new sitting produces new verdicts.
The Field: The Panel's Biggest Number
Every seat's anchor is an outcome the exchange does not sell: a winner who is not on the board. The reasoning is arithmetic plus history. TIME has gone to a group or abstraction in nearly half of recent years, The Guardians, the Ebola Fighters, last year's Architects of AI, and more than four months of 2026, including the midterms and the war's endgame, are unwritten as of this refresh.
"FIELD is the honest favorite: TIME has repeatedly chosen groups and abstractions, and a December cover weighing a war, a U.S. midterm cycle, and four unwritten months will often land on a collective — Iranian civilians, war correspondents, election workers, a late-breaking newsmaker — or on a person outside this board entirely." (Claude Opus)
The panel's 24% on the field, held after a revision round in which its strongest advocate actually cut the number, is the page's most practical read, and the August 20 move sharpens it: the more the listed board concentrates on one name, the more the unlisted remainder matters. The listed midpoints now sum to about 180 cents. A board that cannot, by construction, pay an unlisted winner is pricing the listed slice of the distribution ever more richly while the calendar that could produce a December surprise stays exactly as long as it was.
Péter Magyar: The Panel's Overweight The Market Started Paying
This is the section where the market moved toward the machines. On August 7 the panel's one big upward repricing, 9.8% against a 2.5-cent contract, came with the closest thing this market has to an editorial tell: two days after Magyar's Tisza party won 53.6 percent and ended Orbán's 16-year rule, TIME published a dedicated profile crediting him by name as the man who ended the era. Thirteen days later the contract trades at 5/6 cents, more than double its price at the panel's sitting, and still roughly four points under the frozen blend.
"The strongest challenger is Magyar: TIME's own April profile telegraphed editorial affection, and ousting a 16-year entrenched leader fits the Zelenskyy-2022 democracy arc that plays well on a December cover." (Kimi K3)
DeepSeek went furthest, to 18%, tied with its field number. Claude Opus omitted Magyar entirely in round one and reversed in round two, calling the April profile "the closest thing this card offers to an editorial tell." Trump at 13.1% is the top listed name, held near the market by every seat: the Iran war and three brokered ceasefires run through his administration, but he was the 2024 selection, and a third cover in the space of a decade, two years after the last one, is a repeat class TIME's editors have almost never indulged. The panel priced that discount as decisive, and the market has agreed for two straight weeks: Trump's 13.5-cent midpoint is unchanged since the panel sat, the one price at the top of this board that both sides endorse.
That leaves the Pope as the board's cleanest remaining dispute. Pope Leo XIV drifted from 19.5 cents to 17/18 while Mamdani ran, still the second choice and still nearly 13 points above the panel's 4.8% blend. The panel's logic was the Mamdani logic transplanted to Rome, a first-year story TIME's editors already told, and unlike the Mamdani side of the board, no wave of fresh money has arrived to argue otherwise: the Pope's contract traded 259 lots in the same 24 hours Mamdani traded 101,441.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
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Mojtaba Khamenei (6.2% Vs 6.5¢ Now, 4¢ At The Run): the precedent every seat reached for is 1979, when TIME made Ayatollah Khomeini Person of the Year. A wartime succession to Supreme Leader is exactly the "for better or worse" selection class; Gemini put 11.7% on it. Claude Sonnet added him in round two after peers surfaced the Khomeini precedent it had, in its own words, "only gestured at abstractly." The market has since walked from 4 cents up past the panel's blend, one of the clearest panel-ward moves on the board.
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The Artemis 2 Crew (About 3% Each, One Shared Outcome): Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen are four contracts but one scenario, and the rules pay all four if the crew is honored jointly, the Apollo 8 pattern from 1968. DeepSeek's whole round-two revision was discovering it had mis-assigned that scenario to the field. Here too the market drifted to the panel: Wiseman traded at 7.5 cents on August 7 and sits at a 3.5-cent midpoint today, nearly on top of the panel's 3.0%.
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Benjamin Netanyahu (6.9% Vs 5.5¢ Now, 4.5¢ At The Run): the war's Israeli principal; GLM's opening read ranked him above every other listed name before its revision. Claude Fable added him in round two after noticing it "had priced the war's Iranian side but not its Israeli principal."
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James Talarico (2.0% Vs 4¢): the longest-dated listed story; Kimi named a Texas upset in November as the one event that could crown an American-politics figure late.
Every Seat's Number
The full per-model table, post-revision, exactly as generated on August 7; the market column shows the prices the panel was scored against that day, not today's. Eight seats ran this board in round one; all eight also completed the revision round, and the table shows post-revision numbers.
| Outcome | Market (Aug 7) | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | GPT | Gemini | Kimi | GLM | DeepSeek | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Field (Unlisted Winner) | not offered | 25.7 | 26.3 | 26.8 | 23.8 | 28.8 | 19.5 | 23.1 | 18.0 | 24.0% |
| Donald Trump | 13.5¢ | 14.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 13.1% |
| Péter Magyar | 2.5¢ | 9.3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 18.0 | 9.8% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 4.5¢ | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 12.0 | 6.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4¢ | 4.1 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.2% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 19.5¢ | 5.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 12.0 | 4.8% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 28.5¢ | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 4.5% |
| Reid Wiseman | 7.5¢ | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 3.0% |
| Victor Glover | 7.5¢ | 2.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 2.9% |
| Christina Koch | 7.5¢ | 2.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 2.9% |
| Jeremy Hansen | 7¢ | 2.1 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 2.8% |
| James Talarico | 4¢ | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 2.0% |
| Xi Jinping | 4.5¢ | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.0% |
| Elon Musk | 12.5¢ | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.7% |
| AI | 4.5¢ | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.7% |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 3.5¢ | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.6% |
| Marco Rubio | 2.5¢ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5% |
| Sam Altman | 7.5¢ | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.5% |
| Bad Bunny | 5.5¢ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.3% |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 3¢ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2% |
| Dario Amodei | 8.5¢ | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.2% |
| ChatGPT | 4.5¢ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8% |
| Alysa Liu | 1.5¢ | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8% |
| Lionel Messi | 6.5¢ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8% |
| Taylor Swift | 1.5¢ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6% |
| Jerome Powell | 4.5¢ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5% |
Model estimates generated 2026-08-07. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 84% on 334 graded calls · Claude Opus 85% on 385 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 83% on 366 graded calls · GPT 83% on 2,013 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 2,062 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,099 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,138 graded calls · DeepSeek 79% on 2,145 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles; see how the series has scored on past boards in the full graded scoreboard. This page is the analysis layer, not a tout sheet; if you want graded human picks on the sports side, the free expert picks today hub is free and publicly scored.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The Delphi round moved real probability on this board, and the arcs are the best content on it.
DeepSeek (field 31.5% → 18.0%): the panel's round-one field maximalist discovered a mechanical error in its own read: "In round 1 I mistakenly assumed the Artemis 2 crew selection would pay FIELD; the rules show it pays the named astronauts. This misallocation inflated FIELD to 32% and neglected the astronaut bloc." It moved the mass onto Magyar (18%), Netanyahu (12%), and the crew.
Claude Opus (Magyar 0 → 6.6%): "TIME publishing a dedicated April profile crediting him by name is the closest thing this card offers to an editorial tell, and I now price him at 7, funded mostly out of FIELD." The stored figure lands at 6.6% once its full board renormalizes.
GLM (added three astronauts): "I had only priced one astronaut when a crew selection pays all four contracts simultaneously — this was a mechanical error, not a judgment call."
Kimi (held Trump at 12.7%): the round's clearest statement of independence, refusing both directions at once: "I did NOT converge to the panel's sub-12 Trump pricing or its 30%+ FIELD cluster — the former underrates wartime-president gravity, the latter double-counts group scenarios." A hold with stated reasons is exactly what the revision round is for.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Four concrete, checkable events would move this board most, in the panel's own accounting. Worth noting: the August 20 repricing arrived before any of them, which is exactly why the panel's blend column has not moved with the price.
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The November 3 Midterms. A Democratic wave re-validates the Mamdani-Talarico affordability story and pushes both up; a Republican hold strengthens Trump's year-defining claim. The full national picture is on our 2026 midterm election odds board.
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The Iran War's Endgame. A named December settlement elevates the peacemaker cluster (Trump, Netanyahu, Sharif, possibly jointly); a major escalation pushes mass toward the war's principals and toward an unlisted "Iranian people" style group, which is field territory.
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TIME's Shortlist, Typically Days Before The Reveal. The first hard editorial signal; any listed name on it reprices immediately.
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A Late-Year Unlisted Newsmaker. The standing field scenario; more than four months are unwritten, and the 2014 and 2018 winners did not exist as candidates in August.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| August 20, 2026 | 101,441 Mamdani contracts trade in 24 hours, repricing the favorite from 28¢ to the mid-30s |
| November 3, 2026 | U.S. midterm elections, the biggest scheduled event left on the 2026 calendar and a known input to the December choice |
| Early December 2026 | TIME's shortlist has typically dropped days before the reveal in recent cycles |
| Mid-December 2026 | The announcement (December 11 in 2025, December 12 in 2024); the board settles on it |
This page re-scores when the story moves, a shortlist, a December surprise, a new war headline, with the as-of stamp above as evidence.
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The Bottom Line
Two weeks ago this page said the market and the panel agreed on almost nothing, and that someone was badly wrong. The fortnight since has been kinder to the machines than the price of the favorite suggests: Magyar doubled toward the panel's number, Khamenei crossed it, the astronaut bloc deflated toward it, and Trump's price never moved off the one blend the panel endorsed. Then a single overnight session put 101,441 contracts through Zohran Mamdani and stretched the one gap the panel already called its widest to 31 points. Either the flow knows what December looks like, or the market just paid six figures of contracts to be earlier and wronger at the top while conceding the rest of the board. The announcement is in December, the falsifiers start firing November 3, and this page gets graded either way.
To be explicit: nothing here is a prediction of fact or financial advice, and the political facts on this page are stated neutrally from sourced reporting, not advocacy. It is a market price and a set of model estimates with a public graded record. The board gets graded the day the cover drops.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
