Amazon MGM has been formally searching for Daniel Craig's replacement since it confirmed the process in May, and Kalshi traders have changed their answer three times since we first scored this board. On August 3 the market said Callum Turner at 38.5 cents. On September 9 it says Jack Lowden at 44 cents bid and 45 cents ask. Gary Oldman telling a Canadian morning show that the studio has already made its choice, and that he hopes it is his Slow Horses co-star, is what took the contract from 27 cents to a 62-cent high on Monday and to 57 by 4:20 AM Tuesday. Tuesday's round trip, through a 90-cent print and a 44-cent print about ninety minutes apart, has no reporting behind it at all, and it left the price twelve cents below where it stood a day earlier. We asked six AI models to price the full field without letting any of them see a market price. They came back putting the most probability on a name nobody was trading, and a month of casting news has been a live test of that read.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's favorite is still Jack Lowden, now at 45 cents (a 44/45 book, midpoint 44.5, shown rounded), down from a 56/57 book at 4:20 AM ET on Tuesday and up from 3.5 cents when our panel scored the board on August 3. Callum Turner, the 38.5-cent favorite then, trades at 23 and is back to second. Our price-blind AI panel's single likeliest outcome, in its August 3 run, was an actor not listed at all at 27.7%, because the studio is reported to want a "fresh face." Five names Kalshi has listed since, led by 20-cent Jack Barton, came out of exactly that bucket.
- Market pick: Jack Lowden, 45¢, which works out closer to 29% once you re-scale for the spread across the whole board
- Panel pick (August 3 run): the field, meaning any actor not listed, including an unknown newcomer, at a 27.7% blend
- What moved it: Gary Oldman's line, reported September 7, that the studio has "made their choice," followed by a 25,000-contract overnight session that printed 70¢ and 1¢ thirteen minutes apart. Tuesday's slide from 57 to 45 has no sourced reason: no studio statement, no report, just a 90-cent print at 1:46 PM ET and a sell-off about ninety minutes later
- Sharpest single datapoint: the six-actor screen-test list Page Six reported on August 26. The market's top three, Lowden, Turner and Jack Barton, are all on it, and the other three names on it, Harris Dickinson, Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal, trade at 5 or 6 cents on the board below
The market is Kalshi's KXBOND-30: 30 separate yes/no contracts, one per actor, each paying out only if that actor is cast as 007 in the next official Bond film before January 1, 2030. Spin-offs and unauthorized productions do not count. The full board, Tuesday's round trip on the tape, and where the panel's August read now looks right and wrong are below.
The Board
"Sep 9" is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask at 2:43 AM ET on September 9, 2026, rounded to the cent. "Aug 3" is the read our panel was scored against: that day's Kalshi close where the contract traded, the bid/ask midpoint where it did not. "AI blend" is the August 3 average of the five seats that completed the revision round; the panel has not been re-run, so those numbers are frozen and dated. Five contracts listed after August 3 carry no blend because the panel never saw them.
| Outcome | Who they are | Sep 9 | Aug 3 | AI blend (Aug 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Field (Unlisted Actor) | Anyone not named below, incl. an unknown | — | — | 27.7% |
| Jack Lowden | Scottish; Slow Horses | 45¢ | 3.5¢ | 4.2% |
| Callum Turner | British; Masters of the Air | 23¢ | 38.5¢ | 7.6% |
| Jack Barton | British; Heartstopper, Poor Things (listed Aug 26) | 20¢ | not listed | not scored |
| Jack O'Connell | British; Sinners, Unbroken (listed Aug 26, evening) | 6¢ | not listed | not scored |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson | British; Kick-Ass, Bullet Train | 6¢ | 18.5¢ | 4.3% |
| Tom Francis | British; Broadway's Sunset Blvd. | 6¢ | 9.5¢ | 2.9% |
| Harris Dickinson | British; Babygirl, The King's Man | 6¢ | 4.5¢ | 8.6% |
| Paul Mescal | Irish; Gladiator II (listed Aug 26) | 5¢ | not listed | not scored |
| Jacob Elordi | Australian; Saltburn, Frankenstein | 5¢ | 10.5¢ | 2.2% |
| Theo James | British; The White Lotus | 5¢ | 6.5¢ | 1.5% |
| George MacKay | British; 1917 | 4¢ | Untraded | 1.3% |
| Tom Blyth | British; Hunger Games prequel | 3¢ | 5.5¢ | 4.0% |
| Damson Idris | British; Snowfall, F1 | 3¢ | 6.5¢ | 2.0% |
| Nicholas Hoult | British; Nosferatu | 2¢ | 4.0¢ | 1.7% |
| Robert Pattinson | British; The Batman (listed Aug 24) | 2¢ | not listed | not scored |
| Regé-Jean Page | British; Bridgerton | 2¢ | 5.5¢ | 1.8% |
| Jonathan Bailey | British; Wicked, Bridgerton | 2¢ | 3.5¢ | 1.4% |
| James Norton | British; Happy Valley | 2¢ | 6.5¢ | 1.9% |
| Henry Cavill | British; Superman, The Witcher | 2¢ | 4.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Cillian Murphy | Irish; Oppenheimer | 2¢ | 1.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Aaron Pierre | British; Lanterns, Rebel Ridge | 2¢ | 8.5¢ | 6.0% |
| Nicholas Galitzine | British; Red, White & Royal Blue (listed Aug 25) | 1¢ | not listed | not scored |
| Josh O'Connor | British; The Crown, Challengers | 1¢ | 8.0¢ | 6.1% |
| Henry Ashton | Rising British actor | 1¢ | 4.5¢ | 4.4% |
| Tom Holland | British; Spider-Man | <1¢ | 8.5¢ | 2.3% |
| Tom Hardy | British; Venom | <1¢ | 2.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Scott Rose-Marsh | Little-known British actor | <1¢ | 1.5¢ | 3.3% |
| Richard Madden | Scottish; Bodyguard | <1¢ | 3.5¢ | 1.4% |
| Idris Elba | British; Luther | <1¢ | 4.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Charlie Hunnam | British; Sons of Anarchy | <1¢ | 2.5¢ | 0.8% |
The AI blend sums to about 100 across the field, give or take rounding. The unrounded September 9 midpoints sum to about 152 cents (159 as rounded in the column above, counting each "<1¢" row as half a cent) because each contract trades in its own book with a spread, so every raw price overstates a true probability (a primer on reading Kalshi prices). A contract shown at "<1¢" has no bid and a 1-cent ask. Nicholas Galitzine's last trade printed 4 cents, but his book is no bid and a 2-cent ask, so the 1-cent midpoint is the honest number.
The row to stare at is the one the panel could not score. Jack Barton was not on Kalshi when the models ran; he was listed on August 26 and trades at 20 cents two weeks later. Add the five names listed after August 3 together and their midpoints come to about 33 cents of the board, down from 43 on Monday as Barton and Jack O'Connell were sold alongside Lowden. That is the panel's "unlisted actor" bucket resolving in real time. The names came from outside the board, exactly as the models said they would; Kalshi just had to write the contracts after the fact.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state, and availability varies by state and can change.
What Moved: Oldman's Clip, The Overnight Sweep, And Tuesday's Round Trip
The sourced reason for the jump is a single interview. Speaking on Global's The Morning Show in Canada the previous Friday, in remarks reported by Variety on September 7, Gary Oldman said of Lowden: "It's been rumored that he's on the shortlist. We're going to find out pretty soon, aren't we? Because they have picked him. They have made their choice, but they have not announced it yet. So my fingers are crossed for Jack." Amazon MGM has not commented, and Oldman is Lowden's Slow Horses co-star, not a party to the casting.
Read the two halves of that quote separately, because the market did not. "They have made their choice" is a claim that a decision exists. "My fingers are crossed for Jack" is what you say when you do not know whose. The tape priced the first sentence as if it were the second.
| ET window (Sep 7–8) | Lowden contracts traded | Taker side | Price range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 8–9 AM | 303 | all buyers | 28¢ to 31¢ |
| Sep 7, 10–11 AM | 1,957 | all buyers | 31¢ to 62¢ |
| Sep 7, 4–5 PM | 1,059 | 866 sellers | 41¢ down to 32¢ |
| Sep 7, 9–11 PM | 3,481 | mostly buyers | 38¢ to 49¢ |
| Sep 8, 2–3 AM | 25,391 | 16,247 buyers / 9,144 sellers | 70¢ high, 1¢ low |
| Sep 8, 3–4 AM | 964 | all buyers | 57¢ to 63¢ |
The contract crossed 30 cents at 8:52 AM ET on September 7 and printed 53 to 62 cents in a single second at 10:53 AM, the first time it had traded above 40 since August 13. It gave most of that back by late afternoon and closed the day in the low 40s. Then, starting with a 1,779-contract buy at 2:25 AM ET on September 8 and running through three larger bursts of 3,875, 3,357 and 4,511 contracts between 2:34 and 2:43, buyers walked the price from 42 to 70 cents. At 2:55:41 AM a seller hit every bid on the book: 8,844 contracts in 42 fills, from 55 cents all the way down to a 1,846-contract fill at 1 cent, the largest single fill anywhere in the Lowden tape we pulled, which starts August 25. Fifty seconds later buyers took 1,730 contracts back between 34 and 67 cents, and the book settled at 56/57, where an 850-contract buy printed at 57 at 3:40 AM.
That 1-cent fill is not a price. It is what happens when a sell order is bigger than every bid on the book and keeps going. Lowden's open interest rose from 48,277 contracts at Sunday's close to 65,366 by 4:20 AM ET on Tuesday. Real money was added on the way up. The sweep at the bottom was one exit.
The session since that pull, the one that took the contract from 57 to 45, ran the same shape in daylight.
| ET window (Sep 8) | Lowden contracts traded | Taker side | Price range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5–6 AM | 1,365 | 1,053 sellers | 56¢ down to 42¢ |
| 6–9 AM | 1,210 | all but 4 buyers | 52¢ up to 63¢ |
| 11 AM–12 PM | 1,103 | 927 buyers | 61¢ to 66¢ |
| 1–2 PM | 4,610 | 4,590 buyers | 58¢ to 90¢ |
| 3–5 PM | 3,959 | 3,494 sellers | 78¢ down to 44¢ |
| 7 PM–midnight | 682 | 474 buyers / 208 sellers | 51¢ down to 44¢ |
Buyers spent the morning walking the price back up from a 5:25 AM sell-off, and at 1:46:28 PM a single burst of 3,707 contracts in 55 fills lifted every offer from 63 cents to 90, with a 1,000-contract fill at 74 and an 841-contract fill at 69 inside it. Only 29 of those 3,707 contracts printed at 90; the burst's weight sat at 74 and 75. Ninety cents is still the highest print in the contract's history bar one, a lone 95-cent fill on September 24, 2025, on a day the contract traded 1,136 contracts with about 1,200 open. The price held the high 60s and 70s for about ninety minutes. At 3:13:09 PM a seller hit 2,205 contracts in 25 fills from 70 cents down to 44, a 450-contract fill at 44 the largest, and a second 705-contract sweep at 4:23 PM printed 59 down to 44 again. After the 7 PM hour slid from 51, the book spent the night between 44 and 46, and at our pull it sat at 44/45, where the last trade, 21 contracts at 45 cents, printed at 2:12 AM ET Wednesday.
We looked for a reason and did not find one. Nothing was published on Tuesday that would move this contract either way: Amazon MGM has not commented on Oldman's remark, and the only on-record additions to the story were a non-answer and a hint. Steven Knight, the film's screenwriter, was asked about Oldman's claim on BBC Radio 4's Today programme and said, "I cannot speak about this subject. Much as I would dearly love to." James Callis, another Slow Horses cast member, posted a photo of Lowden on Instagram captioned "He doesn't need my blessing – but he's got it in spades. (Saved my life! – in the park.)" and signed off "My word is my bond." Neither is a denial, and neither is a leak. A 90-cent print with nothing new on the wire since a morning Instagram caption, and a 44-cent print on nothing at all, is a market trading its own positioning, not new information, and we are not going to invent a narrative for it.
A worked example of what the current price implies: a Yes contract bought at the 45-cent ask pays $1 if Lowden is cast, so it risks 45 cents to win 55, plus Kalshi's trading fee of about 1.7 cents a contract at that price, so call it 46.7 cents risked to win 53.3, and only pays if the name Amazon MGM eventually announces is his, however long that takes before the January 1, 2030 expiry. Kalshi's 24-hour counter on the contract read 33,115 contracts at our pull, out of 61,691 across the whole board, and Lowden's open interest finished Tuesday at 68,709, higher than it was at the 57-cent top. The round trip did not shake the August money out; it added to it at lower prices.
The rest of the board did not simply mirror Lowden. Callum Turner, who had drifted from 27 cents to a 19/21 book on Monday's story, was the one name bought back. 5,107 contracts traded in the 11 AM hour Tuesday, 4,576 of them buyer-initiated, lifting him from a 7-cent print to 25; a 3,668-contract sell sweep at 2:54 PM printed him from 20 cents down to 3, and he closed Tuesday on an 18/19 book. Then, in the hour after midnight, buyers took 1,256 of 1,280 contracts between 18 and 24 cents, and he sits at 22/24 at our pull, back in second. Jack Barton absorbed 838 contracts of selling in one second at 5:24 AM Tuesday, 18 to 23 cents, and eased from 23/24 to 19/20. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, still 18.5 cents on August 3, is 5 cents bid and 7 ask, a 6-cent midpoint. Harris Dickinson, whom we will come back to, was bought as high as 14 cents on Monday afternoon and sold back to a 5/6 book by Tuesday night, 278 contracts at 7 cents the last of it. Outside the top three the moves were a cent or two either way, with one exception: Jack O'Connell, listed two weeks ago, printed as low as 2 cents at 4:40 PM ET Tuesday and closed on a 5/7 book, half of Monday's 11.
Jack Lowden: From 3.5 Cents To Favorite In A Month
When the panel ran, Lowden was a 3.5-cent afterthought with a 4.2% blend, which made him one of the few names the models rated above his price. The models' reasoning was the brief: a working actor, Scottish and therefore British for the brief's purposes, with a prestige series and no franchise baggage. They did not have any reporting to hang it on. The reporting arrived in three steps.
| Date (ET) | What happened | Lowden's Kalshi close |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3 | Our panel scores the 25-name board | 3.5¢ (no trades) |
| Aug 9 | Lowden's contract jumps from 4 cents; Kalshi's own August 17 recap traces the move to Richard Osman saying on The Rest Is Entertainment that Lowden is "definitely being strongly considered" | 37¢ |
| Aug 12 | Lowden passes Turner for the top of the board | 30¢ |
| Aug 26 | Page Six reports six September screen tests, with Lowden on the list and Barton called "The One" (relayed by World of Reel) | 26¢ |
| Sep 7 | Gary Oldman: "they have made their choice" | 43¢ |
| Sep 8 | Steven Knight, asked about Oldman's claim on BBC radio: "I cannot speak about this subject"; the contract prints 90 and 44 in one afternoon | 45¢ |
The pattern in the closes is the story. Two of Lowden's three jumps came from a person talking, not from the studio, and the mid-August run to 62 cents had no reporting attached to it at all, which is its own answer about what this board trades on. Each of the first two faded within days: the Osman spike from 37 to 7 cents in a day, the mid-August high of 62 cents back to 26 by the time the screen-test list landed. The third has started the same way, 57 at our Tuesday-morning pull to 45 by Tuesday night with a 90-cent print in between, though a 45-cent contract is still a different animal from the 7-cent one Osman left behind. The Oldman move is bigger in volume than either, and it is the first one with an actual mechanism attached, since a co-star could plausibly know a decision has been made. But Oldman never separated the two: "they have picked him" sits one sentence from "fingers crossed for Jack," and only one of those is something you say about a decision you know. The market has taken "fingers crossed" as a leak, and until Amazon MGM says a name, 45 cents is a price on a hope with a famous voice behind it.
The panel's frozen 4.2% is stale in the obvious direction; a seat scoring this board today would have to weigh a screen test and a co-star's endorsement it never saw. What has not changed is the structure the models built the number on: the studio's brief, the group making the decision, and a January 2030 horizon that leaves years for a name none of us has typed.
Why The Panel Bets On A Name Nobody Is Trading
Every model keyed on the same fact. Amazon MGM's search has been widely reported to target a "British male actor" described as a fresh face, meaning a relatively unknown performer rather than an established star. Variety, reporting an actual audition, framed it the same way: Villeneuve "may be looking for a lesser-known British actor to play 007." No Amazon MGM job spec has been published, but this is the closest thing to a structural signal the process has produced, and the August 26 shortlist confirmed it: insiders told Page Six that the actor they called "The One" was found by casting director Nina Gold while she scoured the UK for unknowns.
The people in the room cut the same direction. The confirmed team is director Denis Villeneuve, screenwriter Steven Knight, and producers Amy Pascal and David Heyman, a group that has historically prized acting over marquee wattage. Amazon MGM said on May 14, 2026 that the search was officially underway and that it would not comment on specifics. Pascal has since said the end of 2026 "is a good bet" for an announcement, and the market runs to January 1, 2030.
Put those together and you get the panel's thesis. If the studio is hunting an unknown, the universe of unknown British actors auditioning dwarfs any 25-name board, and a large slice of probability belongs to someone the market cannot price. Kalshi had no contract for "somebody we have not heard of yet" on August 3. It has since written five, and the one the shortlist reporting favors is a 31-year-old with supporting credits in Poor Things and Heartstopper. The panel made that bucket the largest single outcome, and the market has spent a month agreeing with it one listing at a time.
"The field remains the single largest bucket. The reported fresh-face, relatively-unknown-British-male criterion is the spine of the board: the universe of unknown auditioning Brits dwarfs any 25-name list, Amazon MGM has cast no one, the studio explicitly refuses to comment during the process, and the January 2030 horizon keeps the field wide open." — Claude Opus, August 3 run
Callum Turner: The Fade That Landed
On August 3 the market's favorite was Callum Turner, the 36-year-old British star of Masters of the Air and The Boys in the Boat, at 38.5 cents. His case was real. Deadline reported in September 2025, as relayed by freebets.com, that he fit the producers' fresh-face preference, British papers reported he had told friends the job was his, and he was the most persistently named contender across a year of coverage.
The panel did not doubt he was a live candidate. It doubted the price, and put him at 7.6%, the widest gap on the August board. The models read his run of headlines as the reason the market had over-committed, not as evidence he was four times more likely than the next name.
"Callum Turner is the most persistently linked name in 2025 coverage, and that persistence is a real signal even if press lists are speculation. I bumped him up on that. But he is now a reported frontrunner rather than an unknown, which is in tension with the exact brief the studio is said to be casting to." — GLM, August 3 run
Five weeks later Turner is a 23-cent contract, second on the board again after Tuesday, and still on the screen-test list. The fade landed, though not for the reason a scoreboard would credit: nothing negative was reported about Turner. He simply stopped being the only name with reporting behind him. His open interest of 247,598 contracts is still the largest on the board by a wide margin, which is why his price has drifted rather than collapsed; a lot of August money is sitting in him waiting for a name.
Harris Dickinson: Out, Or On The Shortlist
Among actors who had a contract on August 3, the panel's favorite was Harris Dickinson at 8.6%, a hair ahead of Turner. He was the cleanest fit for the brief: British, the right age, acclaimed for Babygirl and The King's Man, and not yet a household name. Five seats converged on him independently in the revision round.
"Harris Dickinson now tops my named-actor board. He is the single actor five of the other seven forecasters independently placed at or near the top of theirs, each reaching him through the same fresh-face logic." — Claude Sonnet, August 3 run
The reporting on him points two ways. Multiple outlets reported that Dickinson removed himself from consideration on or around July 18, 2026, with scooper Jeff Sneider saying on The Hot Mic podcast that Dickinson contacted producers to withdraw, citing exhaustion after playing John Lennon in Sam Mendes's Beatles films. Then Page Six's August 26 shortlist named him among the six actors set to screen-test in September. Neither report has been confirmed on the record by any party. The market has split the difference: Dickinson's book is 5 cents bid and 6 ask, up from 4.5 on August 3, after Monday's buying took him as high as 14 cents and Tuesday sold him back down. If the withdrawal held, the panel's top named number is on an actor who took himself out. If the shortlist is right, the panel's best-fit pick is back in the room at a fraction of Lowden's price.
Who Else Fits The Brief
- Jack Barton (not scored, 20¢). Not on the board when the panel ran; listed August 26, the same day Page Six's insiders called him "The One." Thirty-one, found by Nina Gold, with supporting turns in Poor Things, Heartstopper and SAS: Rogue Heroes. He is the literal shape of the panel's "unlisted actor" bucket, and he led the board from August 26 through September 1 by daily close, then slid back behind Lowden by September 3, days before Oldman's clip widened a three-cent gap to twenty-five.
- Jack O'Connell (not scored, 6¢). Listed at 8 PM ET on August 26, hours after the shortlist story, which did not name him. He printed 11 on Monday and was sold to 2 cents on Tuesday afternoon before settling on a 5/7 book; his price says traders think the list of six is not closed, and that he is not the name Oldman meant.
- Tom Francis (2.9% blend, 6¢). Still the only name with an actual reported audition rather than bookmaker chatter. He was not on Page Six's screen-test list, and the market has cut him from 9.5 cents to 6 accordingly.
- Josh O'Connor (6.1% blend, 1¢). The Crown and Challengers actor was the panel's idea of a Villeneuve pick: prestigious, actorly, not mainstream-saturated. Down from 8 cents to a no-bid, 2-cent-ask book; not on the shortlist.
- Aaron Pierre (6.0% blend, 2¢). The panel's fourth-best named actor has lost 6.5 cents, from 8.5 to 2. He is headlining DC's Lanterns, and the shortlist skipped him.
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson (4.3% blend, 6¢). The August board's second-biggest fade. He was heavily reported as an offer target under the previous regime, before Amazon took control and Villeneuve came aboard. The panel treated those older reports as largely superseded, and the market has now agreed, 18.5 cents to 6.
Three more names show what the models got wrong in the other direction. Tom Blyth (4.0% blend, now 3¢), Scott Rose-Marsh (3.3%, no bid) and Henry Ashton (4.4%, 1¢) were rewarded for fitting the unknown-British profile with no reporting behind them. Rose-Marsh's original screen-test story was later reported by Deadline to have been a hoax, and we could not verify any credible report linking Ashton to the casting. The shortlist skipped all three, and the board has priced them down. Fitting the profile turned out to be necessary and nowhere near sufficient; the panel's field bucket was right, and its guesses at which unknowns would fill it were not.
The Famous Names, And The Rule The Shortlist Broke
On August 3 Tom Holland (8.5¢), Jacob Elordi (10.5¢), Henry Cavill (4.5¢) and Idris Elba (4.5¢) all traded well above the panel's estimate for them, and the reason was the brief itself. Holland, Cavill, Elba and Tom Hardy are British but the opposite of unknown, and the models faded them for it. The market has since done that fading for the panel: Holland, Cavill and Elba are 2 cents or less, Hardy has no bid, and Robert Pattinson, listed August 24 and the biggest star among the new listings, trades at 1/2. On fame, the panel's rule held.
On nationality it did not. Every model also cut Elordi for being Australian and Cillian Murphy for being Irish, reading "British male actor" as a hard filter. Then Page Six's six included Elordi and Paul Mescal, who is Irish. Whatever the studio told the trades, the room that made the shortlist was willing to test two non-Brits, which means "British" was a preference rather than a rule, and the panel priced it as a rule. The market has quietly kept both alive, Elordi and Mescal each on a 4/6 book, while pricing the famous Brits to nothing. That is the one premise on this page the last month has falsified, and it is worth more to a reader than any single price: the shortlist says the studio's filter is fame, not passport.
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The Bottom Line
Kalshi has paid for name recognition twice on this board, first Turner's and now Lowden's, and both times the name came from someone talking rather than from the studio. The panel paid for the casting brief, and a fresh-face brief pointed at an actor nobody was famous enough to have been bet on yet. A month later the brief has produced a shortlist, the shortlist produced five new contracts, and the contract insiders like most belongs to a 31-year-old the panel could not name. Lowden at 45 cents may be right, and Tuesday showed how little it takes to move him twelve cents in either direction on no news. Oldman's "fingers crossed" is not the sentence that would make him right. When Amazon MGM names its 007, every estimate on this page is graded against settlement on the full graded scoreboard, so you will be able to see whether the panel or the market called it better.
Verdicts generated August 3, 2026. Prices as of September 9, 2026, 2:43 AM ET; the panel has not been re-run since August 3 and its numbers are shown as published. Panel: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek, scored price-blind, with a second revision round completed by five of the six. The GPT and Gemini seats were unavailable on this run and are disclosed here rather than hidden; the run seated eight, which is why a seat quoted above counts "seven other forecasters."
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
