2026 Midterm Election Odds: Every Race On One Board

Our panel had a split Congress at 55 percent and a Democratic sweep at 17.5; the sweep happened. The Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats at 11:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 3, in a wire story carried by PBS News, and by 1:52 a.m. Wednesday NPR's tally of AP race calls had Democrats in control of both chambers. NBC News projects a Democratic House, 242 seats to 151 with 42 races uncalled as of 7:27 p.m. ET on November 4. Kalshi's four-way board closed trading at 12:03 a.m. ET Wednesday and settled at 12:33 a.m. The Democratic sweep contract, 64 cents to buy at this page's October 26 update and 75 at Monday's close, paid $1; the other three paid zero.

The panel got the math right and the map wrong. It said a Democratic Senate needed every competitive Republican seat on its list, and Democrats won three of those four, with Alaska still counting, then added Texas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina, none of which the list counted. The board it was scored on, the seats it rated and the race-by-race record are below as they stood before the vote, with the result marked on each. Settlement prices and closing times are Kalshi's, fetched November 4, 2026, at 7:27 p.m. ET; the panel's estimates were generated August 8 and never re-run, so August 8 is what gets graded.

The Market

The contract this page tracked, and how it settled.

Venue	Kalshi (where prediction markets are legal)
The Event	"2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power" (ticker KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB), four mutually exclusive outcomes, one contract each
Settles	On which party controls each chamber as of February 1, 2027, decided by the November 3, 2026 elections
Settled	November 4, 2026, 12:33 a.m. ET, after trading closed at 12:03 a.m.: D-House/D-Senate paid $1 · D-House/R-Senate, R-House/R-Senate and R-House/D-Senate paid $0. Kalshi's separate House and Senate markets settled early under the media-call rule in their rules, the Senate at 12:46 a.m. ET and the House at 1:02 a.m.
Last Prices Before The Vote	October 26 (this page's last update): D-House/D-Senate 64¢ · D-House/R-Senate 27¢ · R-House/R-Senate 9.8¢ · R-House/D-Senate 0.6¢. Election Eve close, Monday, November 2: 75¢ · 20¢ · 6.8¢ · 0.9¢

This is a neutral, data-driven analysis. It presents both parties' paths identically, advocates for neither, and every electoral fact in it comes from the sources named on the page.

The Board, Graded

Six models returned verdicts on the August 8 run; the GPT and Gemini models were unavailable. None of them saw Kalshi's prices. Each priced all four outcomes in one pass, so no model could favor a Democratic House in one row and contradict itself in another. "Market" is the October 26 price this page carried into the vote; "Edge" is the panel blend against it; "Settled" is what each contract paid on November 4.

Outcome	Market (Oct 26)	Fable	Opus	Sonnet	GLM	Kimi	DeepSeek	Blend	Edge	Settled
D House / R Senate (Split)	27¢	58	55	61	44	58	55	55.2%	+28.2	$0
D House / D Senate (Sweep)	64¢	20	21	14	8	22	20	17.5%	−46.5	$1
R House / R Senate (R Hold)	9.8¢	20	21	21	41	18	20	23.5%	+13.7	$0
R House / D Senate (Reverse)	0.6¢	2	3	4	7	2	5	3.8%	+3.2	$0

The row that paid is the one the panel liked third-best. Every model on the panel had the sweep under a quarter, from Kimi's 22 down to GLM's 8, and the blend's 17.5 sat 46.5 points under the market the night this page was last updated. Scored as a Brier score across the four rows, the squared error summed, the blend finishes at 1.04, four of the six models beat it, Opus best at 0.97, GLM worst at 1.21, the October 26 market at 0.21 and the Election Eve market at 0.11. Lower is better, and zero means the winning row was priced at 100.

Read by chamber, Kalshi's separate House and Senate markets had Democrats taking the House at 90.4 cents on October 26, and the panel, from its August 8 run, had it at 72.7 percent. On the Senate the market sat at 64 cents and the panel at 21.3. The House market settled $1 for Democrats and the Senate market settled $1 for Democrats, so the panel was on the right side of the House and the wrong side of the Senate, and the market was on the right side of both.

The panel's estimates were generated August 8, 2026, price-blind, from the data card described below; the October 26 prices were the last this page carried before the vote, and settlement values were fetched November 4, 2026. Models are frequently wrong, and the market price reflects real traders' money. Our full graded record, including the events we have lost to the market, is public. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

Why Both Sides Expected A Democratic House (As Of August 8)

The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the 20 postwar midterms, an average of 25.6. The two exceptions, 1998 and 2002, each needed a dominant national event to flip the usual referendum dynamic, and nothing like that was on the board when the panel priced it. The panel's last firm polling read, from late June, had the generic ballot at Democrats +5.0 and presidential approval at a net of −17.8. Midterm losses run worse for presidents that far under water. The panel was more cautious than the market, 72.7 percent against 90.4 cents, because of the weeks that were still to run when it priced this, but the two readings point the same way. The gap had narrowed back at the October 26 update, 90.4 against the same 72.7, after four closes at 90.8 or higher, while the panel's number stood still.

Why The Panel Faded A Democratic Senate (As Of August 8)

Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, and only four Republican-held seats were rated competitive on the panel's August 8 read. Every other Republican seat, including the open ones in Alabama, Iowa, Kentucky, Montana and Wyoming, sits in a state the party wins by double digits. Three Democratic seats were competitive too, and Michigan was rated a true tossup. The result column is new; the rest of the table is the August 8 read.

Seat	Held by	Status	Rating (August 8)	Result
North Carolina	Republican	OPEN (Tillis retiring)	Lean D flip, the best target on the board	Roy Cooper (D) flipped it, AP, 8:24 p.m. ET
Maine	Republican	Collins, incumbent	Tossup	Troy Jackson (D) flipped it, AP, 1:02 a.m. ET
Alaska	Republican	Sullivan, incumbent	Tossup	Not called. AP, via the Anchorage Daily News: Peltola leads by 626 votes with about 74 percent counted
Ohio (Special)	Republican	Husted, appointed	Tossup	Sherrod Brown (D) flipped it, AP, 11:10 p.m. ET
Michigan	Democrat	OPEN (Peters retiring)	Tossup, a live Republican flip chance	Abdul El-Sayed (D) held it, AP, 2:28 a.m. ET
Georgia	Democrat	Ossoff, incumbent	Lean D	Jon Ossoff (D) held it, AP, 7:55 p.m. ET
New Hampshire	Democrat	OPEN (Shaheen retiring)	Lean D	Chris Pappas (D) held it, AP (via PBS)

So, on that read, a Democratic Senate meant winning essentially every competitive Republican seat in the country while holding all three defenses. Lose Michigan and the requirement becomes a fifth pickup from the safe-Republican tier. A House wave lifts a party's candidates a few points everywhere, which flips dozens of close districts, but a few points does not turn Alaska or a Maine incumbent into a safe seat. In 2018 Democrats gained 41 House seats and still lost two in the Senate, because the map decided the upper chamber. Every model on the panel made the split its single most likely outcome for that reason.

What the August map did not have was Texas, Iowa, Kansas or South Carolina as targets. Democrats flipped all four on November 3, along with three of the four Republican seats in the table, Alaska being the one still open, and held the three defenses. Six of the seven flips were in when the AP called the chamber at 11:40 p.m., North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, and Maine made it seven at 1:02 a.m. Four of the seven were outside the seven seats the panel did its Senate math on; Iowa and Texas had verdict pages of their own, rated Likely R and Lean R, and Kansas and South Carolina had none.

The Case For A Republican Hold (As Of August 8)

The market priced a Republican hold at 9.8 cents on October 26 and the panel blended it at 23.5. Three of the six models opened with the Republican hold as their most likely outcome, reasoning from midterm gravity and the map, then moved to the split after weighing the House base rate. GLM kept a unified Republican Congress as a loud second at 41 percent, arguing that low presidential approval could prove more decisive than the generic ballot. If the June generic-ballot lead had faded since the panel's last polling read, this was the outcome that would have benefited; it settled at zero. The reverse split, a Republican House with a Democratic Senate, was nobody's base case at 0.6 cents; the panel priced it like a lottery ticket at 3.8.

What Moved Since October 26

The vote. Kalshi's Senate-control market closed at 11:46 p.m. ET Tuesday, six minutes after PBS carried the AP call, and settled for Democrats at 12:46 a.m.; the House market closed at 12:02 a.m. and settled at 1:02 a.m., and the four-way board on this page followed, the sweep at $1. The Democratic sweep contract was 64 cents to buy at the October 26 update, closed 66 on Thursday the 29th, 70 on Friday, 71 on Saturday, 70 on Sunday, 75 on Monday, Election Eve, and 99.9 on election night. The split the panel favored went the other way, 27 at the last update, 20 at Monday's close, a tenth of a cent by midnight. The Republican hold closed Monday at 6.8 and the reverse split at 0.9. Kalshi's separate Senate market closed Monday at 76 cents for Democrats, from 64 at the last update, and the House market at 93.5, from 90.4.

Nine of the ten seats on this page moved toward the Democrat in the same week; Alaska went the other way, 76 to 71. The biggest mover, Kansas, was one the panel never counted as competitive; Maine and Michigan, both tossups on its list, came next.

Race	Oct 26 (this page)	Election Eve close	Called	Kalshi settled
North Carolina	Cooper 96.9¢	Cooper 97.4¢	Roy Cooper (D), AP, 8:24 p.m. ET	Cooper $1
Georgia	Ossoff 94.7¢	Ossoff 96.5¢	Jon Ossoff (D), AP, 7:55 p.m. ET	Ossoff $1
New Hampshire	Pappas 90¢	Pappas 94.4¢	Chris Pappas (D), AP (via PBS)	Pappas $1
Alaska	Peltola 76¢	Peltola 71¢	Not called, AP via ADN; NBC: too early to call	Still trading: Peltola 93¢, Sullivan 7.2¢
Ohio (special)	Brown 68¢	Brown 71¢	Sherrod Brown (D), AP, 11:10 p.m. ET	Brown $1
Michigan	El-Sayed 67¢	El-Sayed 79¢	Abdul El-Sayed (D), AP, 2:28 a.m. ET	El-Sayed $1
Texas	Talarico 65¢	Talarico 74¢	James Talarico (D), AP, 11:04 p.m. ET	Talarico $1
Maine	Jackson 60¢	Jackson 73¢	Troy Jackson (D), AP, 1:02 a.m. ET	Jackson $1
Iowa	Hinson 60¢	Hinson 48¢, Turek 53¢	Josh Turek (D), AP, 11:37 p.m. ET	Hinson $0
Kansas	Marshall 61¢	Marshall 39¢, Hamilton 62¢	Adam Hamilton (D), AP, 11:25 p.m. ET	Marshall $0

The AP times are when NPR published each call. The October 26 column is the ask this page quoted that morning; Election Eve is the close of the Monday, November 2 session; the Alaska quote is the live ask at 7:27 p.m. ET on November 4. Each called race stopped trading on Kalshi within about ten minutes of the call and settled 30 minutes after that; Georgia was the first to close, at 7:58 p.m. Tuesday, and Michigan the last, at 2:34 a.m. Wednesday.

Iowa and Kansas are the rows to read. On October 26 this page had Ashley Hinson at 60 cents and Roger Marshall at 61, both Republican favorites. By Monday's close both had crossed: Turek 53 to Hinson 48 in Iowa, Hamilton 62 to Marshall 39 in Kansas. Marshall's slide ran 61, 53, 50, 50, 41, 39 from Wednesday the 28th through Monday, and both Democrats won. The panel's August list rated neither state competitive. Maine, the seat the last update called "a coin flip in the polls and a 60-40 favorite on the board," closed 60 for Jackson on October 26 and 27, then 62, 64, 68, 69, 73 and 73 through Election Eve, and Jackson won it. Michigan, the one Democratic seat the panel had as a true tossup, closed Election Eve at 79 for El-Sayed and he held it.

Alaska is what is left. The Associated Press had not called it as of Wednesday afternoon, with Mary Peltola leading Senator Dan S. Sullivan by 626 votes and about 74 percent counted, per the AP via the Anchorage Daily News; NBC News had Peltola at 48.2 percent to Sullivan's 47.9 with 74.4 percent of the expected vote in at 7:26 p.m. ET and lists the race as too early to call. Gerald Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan hold the rest of the first choices between them, so no one is near 50 percent, and if that holds Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation decides it, scheduled for November 18 per the ADN, with certification set for November 25. The Justice Department's October suit, which asked that certification be blocked if Senator Sullivan loses by fewer votes than Dan J. Sullivan receives, was filed before a ballot was counted; where it stands now is not in our record, and a 626-vote margin is inside the condition it named. The Democratic contract is 93 cents to buy and the Republican 7.2, from 71 and 31 at Monday's close. That is the market's read of a count that is a quarter unfinished; it is not a call, and this page will not make one from a price. The panel had Alaska a tossup on August 8, and that grade waits for the state.

The grade, then. The panel's favorite, the split, paid zero; the market's favorite, the sweep, paid $1, and the market had the sweep as its favorite on August 8, 44 cents to the split's 39, and at every October update. The panel lost the Senate on the map rather than the math: its August 8 case said a Democratic Senate required "essentially every competitive Republican seat," and that was true of the seats on its August list, North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio. Democrats won three of those four with Alaska open, and then four more outside that list, for "at least 54 of 100 seats" and a House "well past the 218 needed" in the AP's Wednesday wire via PBS. The October 26 update ended by saying the market "still has five Republican-held seats more likely than not to go Democratic" and that the panel's August call "gets graded against the result on the public scoreboard either way." Four of those five went, with Alaska still counting, and so did Iowa and Kansas, which that board had at 42 and 40 for the Democrat, and South Carolina. This is the grade. The six models' four-way calls are stored on the public model scoreboard and will be scored there against the settlement; the Election Eve market, which scores at 0.11 against the blend's 1.04, is the number any re-run of this panel has to beat.

The Update Before This One (October 26)

The October 26 edition belonged to Maine and to the board giving a week back. Kalshi's Senate market was 64 cents to buy, from 69 at the October 23 update, after a 69 close on Thursday the 22nd that was its highest on this page's record; the sweep was 64, from 68, and the split 27, from 23. Troy Jackson went from 65 to 60 and Susan Collins from 37 to 41 after Fox News published a 49-49 Maine poll at 6 p.m. Thursday the 22nd, with Collins contracts bought in size 51 minutes later, then a tariff order lifting duties on Canadian imports Maine farms rely on, which Collins took credit for while Jackson said she "enabled this chaos," and a Trafalgar 47-47 on Sunday. Texas was the control: James Talarico 65, from 66, through ten polls in ten days per Chris Cillizza on Kalshi's desk, two tied and eight with Talarico ahead by two to five. Sherrod Brown gave back two cents to 68 and Abdul El-Sayed two to 67, the weekend former President Obama rallied with both and the Associated Press reported President Trump calling El-Sayed "a 'jihadist'" in Port Huron, adding that "there is no evidence that El-Sayed has any affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood." Alaska did not move on the Justice Department's suit to block certification of a Peltola win, Peltola 76 where she was. That edition's finding was that the board moved when a poll landed outside the band the price had already assumed, and the seat where it had assumed the most, Maine, was the one that gave back the most; a week later Maine closed Election Eve at 73 for Jackson, and he won it.

The two updates before this one ran in opposite directions. The October 23 edition belonged to the chamber: five cents in three sessions to 69, its highest close on this page's record, with Kalshi's news desk calling 66 "a new high" on the way up. Ohio carried it, two of its five cents in the hour after Fox News published Brown 52 to 47 at 6 p.m. Wednesday the 21st, after the market had done nothing with Marist's Brown 48 to 44 the day before; Texas went to 68 on Harris County's early-voting records, Michael Bloomberg's $2.5 million and Neil Bush's vote, then held 67 through a Fox News tie and Emerson's 48 to 46; Kansas ended where it started after Trump's Park City rally and the last debate; and Maine was the seat that edition misread, filing Manchin's endorsement of Collins as the week's news and the Thursday volume as noise. The October 20 edition belonged to Maine the other way, Jackson 57 to 64 without a poll, in the weekend the two candidates spent relitigating his "Oh, shut up" at the Bangor debate, which the Portland Press Herald reported alongside his "I'm not going to apologize for that," while Kansas went 65 to 61 after Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Toss-up on October 14 and NPR reported that both parties "have redirected tens of millions of dollars in recent weeks," and Texas moved a cent on CBS News/YouGov's 51 to 49 and a Hobby School 48 to 46 via Kalshi's desk; that edition's finding was that polls arriving did nothing while seats without one moved.

The three updates before that were Ohio, the slide and the stop. Brown went from 60 to 65 on the October wave of the Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll, reported by Political Wire at Brown 48 to Jon Husted's 42, in the week Politico's tally had Democratic campaigns in the ten competitive Senate races outraising the Republican campaigns more than five to one. Before that, between the October 7 and October 10 updates, the Senate market went from 65 to 61 and the sweep from 65 to 60 in the week of the first Maine and Michigan debates: the desk put Michigan's post-debate drop at six points, priced Collins at 44 the day after her first debate and had Marshall at 62 in Kansas, down from 82.8 on September 5, after Cook moved the race to Toss Up and Cook's Jessica Taylor wrote, "At this point, the question isn't whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many." By the October 13 update the slide had stopped at 62.

Those weeks sat on top of September's run, which was the bigger move until the final week. The sweep, 44 cents when this page opened on August 8, closed between 46 and 48 cents every day from August 18 through September 13, then went from 48 to 59 in four trading days, September 14 through 17, when Kalshi's separate Senate market flipped to Democrats. Kalshi's news desk marked that flip at 52 to 48 on September 14, pointing to an Associated Press report in which Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota's KELO-TV, "I'm a realist. I don't ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it's a competitive environment right now," and quoting Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, "We found new states – Iowa, Texas – which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to." Time's Philip Elliott, quoted by Kalshi's news desk on September 29, reported that the Senate Republicans' campaign chairman, Tim Scott, told senators the committee's priority was "saving GOP-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine, and Alaska," according to a person who listened to the briefing.

The panel's numbers stayed frozen where August 8 left them through every one of those updates, so the sweep gap it faded, 26.5 points when this page opened on August 8, 50.5 at the October 23 update and 46.5 at the last one, ended at 82.5 points when the sweep settled at $1 against the panel's 17.5. The sections above are kept as the record of what the page said before the vote; the grade is in the section before this one.

The Senate Races We Scored, Graded

Each row links to that race's full model verdict; the result column is the November 3 call. Ohio and Kansas have no verdict page of their own and sit in the tables above; South Carolina, the seventh flip (Annie Andrews over Darline Graham, AP, 10:39 p.m. ET), was never on this page's board.

Race	Seat	Cook / Sabato rating (August 8)	Our verdict	Result
North Carolina Senate	OPEN, Tillis retiring	Lean D flip	Cooper vs. Whatley	Cooper (D), AP
Maine Senate	Collins (R) incumbent	Tossup	Collins vs. Jackson	Jackson (D), AP
Georgia Senate	Ossoff (D) incumbent	Lean D	Ossoff vs. the field	Ossoff (D), AP
Michigan Senate	OPEN, Peters retiring	Tossup	El-Sayed vs. Rogers	El-Sayed (D), AP
Minnesota Senate	OPEN, Smith retiring	Likely D	Flanagan vs. the field	Flanagan (D), NBC News projection
New Hampshire Senate	OPEN, Shaheen retiring	Lean D (Sabato)	Pappas vs. Sununu	Pappas (D), AP
Iowa Senate	OPEN, Ernst retiring	Likely R	Hinson vs. Turek	Turek (D), AP
Texas Senate	R-held (Paxton primary)	Lean R	Paxton vs. Talarico	Talarico (D), AP

The chamber-level boards from the same panel: House Control 2026, 2026 Senate control and the full Balance of Power four-way breakdown. New to election contracts? Start with how election prediction markets work.

Every verdict above is stored as a graded row on our public model scoreboard, and each model's four-way call will be scored against the result now that this market has settled, win or lose.

This analysis advocates for no party and no outcome.

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