The Republican nominee for Senate in Texas was impeached by his own party's state House in 2023 and acquitted by the Texas Senate on votes as close as 16-14. Kalshi has Ken Paxton and James Talarico dead even for November, 50.5 cents each, the closest thing to a coin flip on the whole 2026 map. Eight AI models, given the polling and the ratings but never shown a price, put him at 47.5.
That three-cent argument is only the second most interesting thing on this board. The first is Alaska, where those same eight models could not agree with each other about who is going to win.
The Quick Answer
Republicans are the favorite to keep the Senate, at 52.5 cents on Kalshi. Our eight-model panel, which never sees a price before it answers, puts Republican control at 44%, so it reads the chamber as slightly more likely to flip than the money does.
Across the 15 competitive races the panel and the market agree on ten. The tightest race by price is Texas. The tightest by argument is Alaska, where the market pays 34.5 cents on the Republican and the panel's middle number is 52.
Prices on this page are live Kalshi midpoints fetched September 11, 2026 at 09:40 UTC. The panel's numbers were generated August 23, and every one of them is graded in public against the certified result.
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New to these markets? How to bet on 2026 Senate elections on Kalshi covers the mechanics; a price in cents reads directly as a percentage chance.
The Board
Fifteen races, ordered by money traded. A seat is here when at least one of the 12 public handicappers who rate Senate races calls it competitive. "Market favorite" is the higher-priced of the two party contracts; "panel" is what our eight models give that same candidate.
| Race | Market favorite | Kalshi | Panel | Gap | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R), tied | 50.5¢ | 47.5% | −3.0 | $11.35M |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) | 66.5¢ | 65.5% | −1.0 | $5.32M |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 62.5¢ | 58% | −4.5 | $3.32M |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown (D) | 52.5¢ | 62% | +9.5 | $3.08M |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | 65.5¢ | 55% | −10.5 | $2.53M |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) | 91.0¢ | 89% | −2.0 | $2.02M |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | 86.5¢ | 83% | −3.5 | $1.27M |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | 92.7¢ | 82% | −10.7 | $1.24M |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | 70.5¢ | 68% | −2.5 | $0.86M |
| Alaska | Democratic party | 65.0¢ | 48% | −17.0 | $0.85M |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | 79.5¢ | 82% | +2.5 | $0.78M |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 90.2¢ | 90% | −0.2 | $0.57M |
| Florida (special) | Ashley Moody (R) | 91.3¢ | 86.5% | −4.8 | $0.56M |
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | 91.8¢ | 81% | −10.8 | $0.51M |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) | 83.5¢ | 86.5% | +3.0 | $0.39M |
| US Senate control | Republican Party | 52.5¢ | 44% | −8.5 | $8.11M |
Prices are midpoints as of September 11, 2026, 09:40 UTC, and no favorite's buy-sell gap is wider than two cents, so they sit close to prices you could actually transact at. Volume is Kalshi's dollar volume on both sides of each race. The illustration at the top of this page shows the September 4 board.
Contracts settle on who is sworn in for the 2027 term, so a Georgia runoff on December 1 would delay settlement rather than change it. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate.
Read the gap column as a disagreement that gets graded, never as a recommendation. Ten of the 15 races sit within six points of the panel, and the exceptions earn the rest of this page. Every other race board we score, Senate and otherwise, lives on the Kalshi picks hub.
What Moved Since September 8
This page's previous board was stamped September 4. Most of the moves since came on or after September 8, when New Hampshire voted; Iowa's started September 4, the day after Emerson's follow-up. Eight of the 16 lines are within a cent of where they were. These are the eight that are not, plus Texas, New Hampshire and the control contract, because the week's story runs through them.
| Contract | Sept 4 | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas, Roger Marshall (R) | 83.5¢ | 79.5¢ | −4.0 |
| Nebraska, Dan Osborn (I) | 29.5¢ | 26.5¢ | −3.0 |
| Alaska, Republican | 36.5¢ | 34.5¢ | −2.0 |
| Iowa, Ashley Hinson (R) | 63.5¢ | 65.5¢ | +2.0 |
| Maine, Troy Jackson (D) | 68.5¢ | 66.5¢ | −2.0 |
| Ohio, Jon Husted (R) | 46.5¢ | 48.5¢ | +2.0 |
| Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan (D) | 92.1¢ | 90.2¢ | −1.9 |
| Montana, Kurt Alme (R) | 90.6¢ | 91.8¢ | +1.2 |
| Texas, Ken Paxton (R) | 51.5¢ | 50.5¢ | −1.0 |
| New Hampshire, Democrat, now Chris Pappas | 82.5¢ | 83.5¢ | +1.0 |
| US Senate control, Republican | 52.5¢ | 52.5¢ | 0.0 |
The biggest move is the one with no poll behind it. Kansas opened September 8 at 82 cents on Roger Marshall and printed as low as 78 before closing at 80. It has closed 79 to 80 since, with one dip to 78 on September 10. Adam Hamilton's contract went from 16 to about 21 over the same days, and the largest print of the move was 33,070 contracts at 21 on September 10. Nothing new is on the public polling record: the newest surveys are still the two Democratic-sponsored August polls that had the race inside two points, and the Silver Bulletin average, updated September 9, has Marshall up 3.2. The result is the only one of the six long shots at the bottom of this page where the panel likes the favorite more than the market does. Marshall's 82 from the panel now sits above his 79.5-cent price, so Kansas leaves the long-shot pattern described further down.
New Hampshire did what the schedule said it would. Chris Pappas won the Democratic nomination 65 to 33 over Karishma Manzur and John E. Sununu the Republican one 68 to 27 over Scott Brown, per NBC News's count with 99% reporting, and Kalshi's contracts now carry their names. Pappas is 83.5 cents, one cent above the party line he replaced; Sununu is 16.5. The panel's stored 86.5 stays on the board until the first named-candidate run, which this event was the trigger for.
Maine got its first neutral September poll and moved two cents. CNN's survey with SSRS, taken August 31 to September 6 among 880 likely voters, has Jackson 48 and Collins 45, inside its 3.7-point margin, as the Portland Press Herald reported on September 9. That day Collins's contract traded as high as 38, with the session's largest print 14,445 contracts at 34, and closed at 33. She is 33.5 now, one point from the panel's 34.5.
September 9 was also the day the big money showed up. Prints of 125,000 contracts, the largest on the board this week, landed in Texas on Paxton at 53 cents at 9:16 a.m. Eastern, in Maine on Jackson at 66 at 1:50 p.m., in Ohio on Brown at 50 at 5:39 p.m., and in Iowa on Josh Turek at 36 at 8:52 p.m. The same size hitting four different races inside twelve hours reads like one participant sizing across the map rather than four separate views, though that is an inference from the price history, not a fact it states; at 53 cents the Texas print alone was about $66,000. Texas traded 49 to 54 in that one session on 319,000 Paxton contracts before settling at 51; Brown dipped to 50 and was back at 53 the next day. The day before, David Maxwell, the former director of law enforcement at Paxton's own office and one of the whistleblower plaintiffs in the $6.6 million case described below, endorsed Talarico, per the Texas Tribune.
Two quieter moves. Minnesota's Republican, Michele Tafoya, went from 9 cents to 12 on September 9 after a TIPP poll sponsored by the League of American Workers, a conservative group, put Flanagan up only 44 to 42 among 1,201 likely voters surveyed August 31 to September 2, as Newsweek reported; she is 10.5 now and Flanagan 90.2. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn slid from 30 to 25 on September 8 with a 17,382-contract print on Ricketts at 71 and no new poll since the Democratic-sponsored August tie; he has recovered to 26.5.
Alaska's Republican contract eased to 34.5 on thin volume, and the poll this page is waiting for, a neutral read from a firm other than Alaska Survey Research, still has not arrived. The control contract did not move at all: every close since the last stamp landed at 52 or 53 cents on the Republican side, which is the same thing the page said a week ago.
Every Seat's Number
Eight models, one pass each across the whole map, then a second round in which each read the other seven's anonymized reasoning and could revise. The numbers are each model's final estimate of the Republican's chance in that race, and of Republican Senate control.
| Model | Alaska | Ohio | Texas | Iowa | Maine | Michigan | Georgia | N. Carolina | Control |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 47 | 38 | 47 | 55 | 32 | 42 | 18 | 11 | 44 |
| Claude Opus | 52 | 38 | 47 | 56 | 35 | 42 | 17 | 11 | 46 |
| Claude Sonnet | 56 | 36 | 51 | 54 | 38 | 47 | 15 | 10 | 37 |
| GPT | 47 | 38 | 50 | 55 | 35 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 44 |
| Gemini | 58 | 44 | 47 | 53 | 33 | 42 | 20 | 10 | 47 |
| GLM | 50 | 42 | 47 | 55 | 33 | 40 | 20 | 10 | 42 |
| Kimi | 52 | 36 | 50 | 55 | 34 | 40 | 16 | 12 | 47 |
| DeepSeek | 55 | 40 | 48 | 52 | 35 | 42 | 18 | 12 | 42 |
Every seat is graded against real market settlements, recomputed daily on the public scoreboard. The headline number for each race is the seat median, which our own accuracy audit says tracks the market most closely.
Look down the Alaska column and then down any other. Alaska runs from 47 to 58, straddling a coin flip in both directions. North Carolina, by contrast, runs from 10 to 12. Texas, the race most models named as the truest toss-up on the map, keeps all eight numbers inside a four-point band. The panel calls Texas a coin flip and agrees about it; Alaska is the race it argues about.
More live boards from the same panel: Texas Paxton 50.5¢ · Ohio Brown 52.5¢ · Maine Jackson 66.5¢.
Alaska: The One Race The Panel Cannot Agree On
Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan finished second in the state's August 18 top-four primary, behind Democratic former congresswoman Mary Peltola. The official count had Peltola at 49.5% and Sullivan at 41.4%. Peltola is the last Democrat to win any statewide election in Alaska, and the general election is decided by ranked-choice voting, so second preferences settle the seat.
Kalshi reads that result the obvious way and pays 65 cents on the Democratic contract and 34.5 on the Republican one. The panel's middle number on the Republican is 52. The reason is a single line in the data card, and it is the most useful thing on this page.
Four of the six public general-election polls in the panel's data card came from one firm, Alaska Survey Research. In the graded archive of pollster accuracy the panel was given, that firm carries an average miss of 6.52 points with a documented lean toward Democratic candidates. The only unrated, non-partisan poll in the set, from The New York Times and Siena College in late June, had Sullivan ahead by two. Every model saw the same facts and weighted them differently, and that is the entire spread.
"Alaska (52) is where I depart from the group: four of six polls are Alaska Survey Research, which the card grades at a 6.52-point average miss, D-leaning." — Claude Opus
"Alaska: Peltola leads 5 of 6, but ASR carries a documented 6.5-pt D lean, Sullivan has climbed 43 to 49 in that series, and the only neutral-unrated poll (NYT/Siena) had Sullivan +2; 47." — Claude Fable
Opus at 52 and Fable at 47 are looking at one identical page of evidence and disagreeing about how much to discount one pollster. Gemini, which moved further on this race than any model moved on any race, ended at 58. If the house effect is real, the panel's numbers say the 34.5-cent Republican contract is the most underpriced line on this board. If it has faded since that archive closed, the market is right and Alaska is the panel's worst call of the cycle. That is an open question, which is why it is the one worth reading about.
One poll has landed since the panel ran, and it came from the same firm. Its September 2 read, relayed by Political Wire, has Peltola ahead 51 to 49, inside the margin of error, so it settles nothing on either side. The Alaska ballot has its own complication no poll captures cleanly: our board on the two Dan Sullivans on Alaska's Senate ballot covers what happens when a challenger shares the incumbent's name.
Ohio: The Panel Called It Early, And The Market Has Drifted Its Way
At the panel's August 23 read, Ohio was the tightest market on this page. It has since drifted: appointed Republican Jon Husted trades at 48.5 cents against former senator Sherrod Brown at 52.5, and Husted took back two cents of that drift this week, in the race to complete the term JD Vance gave up to become vice president. Brown lost a different Ohio seat, to Bernie Moreno, in 2024.
The panel is not split on which way it goes. All eight models put Husted below 50, for a median of 38.
Nothing we can source explains the market's drift toward them. The only Ohio poll published since the panel ran, an August 28 Abacus Data survey that the Pollsmax aggregator labels Republican-affiliated, had Brown 52, Husted 46, and it came out after the price had already moved.
The models' case is the polling. Five of the six most recent public surveys have Brown ahead, including two conducted jointly by a Democratic and a Republican firm, the shape of poll least likely to carry a house lean. The only one with Husted in front, from The New York Times and Siena in late June, is the oldest of them.
Ohio's partisan lean is R+5, which is a hard backdrop for a 62% Democratic chance. The models gave it anyway, on the strength of a national environment the card measured at a 6.3-point Democratic generic-ballot lead and presidential approval 21.7 points under water. The full Ohio board has the price history behind the move.
Texas: The Biggest Market, And A Coin Flip
Texas carries more money than any other race on the exchange, and it is the race the panel most often named as a true toss-up. Most of the models pointed at Texas when asked which seat was the real coin flip, and their numbers run only from 47 to 51.
The contest exists in its current form because Ken Paxton beat four-term incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff, after a late endorsement from President Trump, as NPR reported at the time. Democratic state representative James Talarico is the opponent.
Paxton's record is documented and unusually long. He was indicted on felony securities-fraud charges in 2015 and resolved the case through a pretrial agreement involving community service, legal-ethics courses and roughly $300,000 in restitution, according to ABC News. The Texas House impeached him in 2023 on articles alleging preferential treatment for a donor, misapplication of public resources, false statements against whistleblowers and obstruction of justice; the Texas Senate acquitted him on every article that September. The whistleblower litigation brought by his own former senior aides cost Texas taxpayers $6.6 million in settlements, per PBS NewsHour.
In June, Dan Cogdell, an attorney who worked on Paxton's own impeachment defense team, endorsed Talarico, who has built his campaign around that record, as the Texas Tribune has reported. Every allegation above is stated as the charging documents and the reporting state it; Paxton was acquitted, and none of it is offered here as anything but the public record the market has had to price.
The market has priced all of it as a tie, literally: Paxton and Talarico both sit at 50.5 cents in a state whose partisan lean is R+6.
The contract dipped to 49 on August 25, the day after the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project put Talarico ahead 42 to 39, and climbed back within two sessions.
The polling is a tie as well. Emerson College, the only graded-neutral pollster in the Texas set, had Paxton narrowly ahead in mid-August, and The New York Times and Siena had it 47-47 in June. The newest survey, Overton Insights for the Texas Public Policy Foundation, taken August 24 to 26, has Talarico at 44 and Paxton at 43.6.
"Texas — R+6 fundamentals and Emerson Paxton +1 cancel a broader polling record narrowly favoring Talarico." — GPT
The panel's read is that the state's lean and the candidate's record cancel almost exactly, and that the market gives the lean slightly too much credit. On a market this deep, three cents is a rounding argument between two views of the same tie. Our full Texas board walks the polling series in detail.
Iowa, Maine And Michigan: Three Tossups, Three Different Arguments
All 12 handicappers call each of these three competitive. The panel lands close to the market on two of them, and Iowa is the exception, for a reason the polling explains.
Iowa is an open seat, with Joni Ernst retiring, between congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democratic state representative Josh Turek. Kalshi pays 65.5 cents on Hinson; the panel's median is 55, with all eight models inside a four-point band.
Emerson had Hinson narrowly ahead in early August, and its follow-up, published September 3, has her up five, 50 to 45. Earlier summer polls had Turek ahead, and the Cook Political Report moved the race to Toss Up on August 20, yet the price has moved Hinson's way since. The market has moved on a poll the panel never saw, which is exactly the kind of gap the grading exists to settle.
Maine is where the market, the raters and the panel agree most tightly. Susan Collins, five terms in and chairing Appropriations, trades at 33.5 cents against former state Senate president Troy Jackson at 66.5.
Eleven of the 12 raters call it a tossup or better for Democrats, and Jackson leads most head-to-head polls taken since July. The panel puts Collins at 34.5, one point from the market. The raters, the money and the models all agree a long-serving Republican in a state that leans Democratic is an underdog. Maine votes by ranked choice, which our Maine board covers.
Michigan is the only race the ratings put at a dead-even partisan lean, an open seat with Gary Peters retiring, and it produced the strangest polling picture on the map. Republican-aligned firms have shown Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead by as much as seven; a joint Democratic-Republican poll had Republican Mike Rogers up four. Gemini flagged exactly that when asked where it was most likely to be wrong: house effects running backwards suggest unstable numbers rather than a real lead either way.
The newest read, an EPIC-MRA poll taken August 22 to 28, has El-Sayed up 47 to 43. The market pays 36.5 cents on Rogers and the panel says 42; the Michigan board has each seat's reasoning.
Georgia And North Carolina: Where 93 Cents Looks Expensive
These are the two seats the market treats as nearly finished, and the panel agrees with one of them.
North Carolina is an open seat with Thom Tillis retiring, former governor Roy Cooper against former RNC chair Michael Whatley. Cooper trades at 91 cents and the panel puts him at 89, one of the tightest agreements on the board and the only one with no poll arguing the other way. Every public head-to-head poll since April has Cooper ahead, the newest being High Point University's August 18 read at 50 to 45. There is no argument here, and the price reflects that.
Georgia is different. Jon Ossoff trades at 92.7 cents against congressman Mike Collins, 93 at the offer; the panel puts him at 82, the third-largest gap on the board. Georgia leans R+1, the only seat Democrats are defending in a state that leans Republican at all, and a race without a majority winner goes to a December 1 runoff.
The polling is strong for Ossoff: the Pollsmax average has him up seven and a half across ten polls, and the newest, InsiderAdvantage on August 17, has him 50 to 43.
But five of the 12 raters still class the seat as merely leaning, and the panel prices leaning like leaning. The market prices it closer to done, and a Democratic loss here would turn the party's path from a four-seat gain into a five-seat one. Our Georgia board carries the runoff mechanics in full.
The Long Shots The Board Still Prices
Six races at the quieter end of the battleground lists still carry real money, and they share one shape: the panel sits under the market on five of them. Kansas, as the section under the board explains, crossed over this week.
Nebraska is the most interesting because the challenger is not a Democrat. Independent Dan Osborn trades at 26.5 cents against Republican Pete Ricketts at 70.5, while the Democrat on the ballot, Cindy Burbank, prices at 0.25. Several models named Nebraska as the seat they were most likely to be wrong about, for the same reason: the only head-to-head poll in the panel's record was three months old and sponsored by one side, and the one since, a Democratic-sponsored August survey, has the race tied.
Montana shows the same shape. Republican Kurt Alme trades at 91.8 cents, with independent Seth Bodnar's contract at 6.2 to 7.9. The panel puts Alme at 81, the second-largest gap on the board, in an R+10 open seat.
South Carolina settled its open question. Appointed senator Darline Graham won the August 25 Republican runoff over Ralph Norman, roughly 52 to 48, and the contract that traded as a bare party line at the panel's read now carries her name at 86.5 cents. The panel's 83 was priced against the party line, and the seat gets re-scored now that it has a named candidate. Our runoff board tracked that race to the wire.
Florida's special, Kansas and Minnesota fill out the quiet end. Ashley Moody and Peggy Flanagan are priced as heavy favorites with the panel under each, and Roger Marshall, at 79.5 cents after this week's slide, is now the one favorite among these six the panel rates higher than the market does; the board above has the exact numbers.
Put them side by side and the pattern is the point: a price-blind panel systematically discounts near-certainties, the same habit that produces the Georgia gap on the other side of the map. Our own graded ledger says the habit has not paid so far: where a seat sat five to ten points under a favorite priced at 85 cents or more, the favorite settled Yes on 367 of 368 calls. Most of those were short-dated markets rather than elections, which is why these seats are worth grading on their own.
New Hampshire: The Biggest Move Came From The Smallest Book
The largest slide since the panel ran came from a race this page had not been arguing about. New Hampshire's Democratic contract, 90 cents at the August 23 read, pays 83.5 now, in the open seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving. The September 8 primary put names on it: Chris Pappas for the Democrats, John E. Sununu for the Republicans, and Kalshi's contracts now carry both.
The sequence is sourced. On August 26 the University of New Hampshire Survey Center released a Granite State Poll that put Republican John E. Sununu at 45 percent and Democrat Chris Pappas at 43, inside the margin of error, a result UNH itself called a statistical tie and still its first read of the cycle with Sununu in front. The contract had already slipped before the release and kept sliding after it. The same poll has Sununu well ahead for the Republican nomination and Pappas ahead of Karishma Manzur on the Democratic side, with Manzur closing.
What makes it worth watching is the book it happened in. New Hampshire is the thinnest market of the 15, and the panel's stored 86.5 sat under the market at the August 23 read. The slide has now carried the price below the panel, one of two races on this board, with Kansas this week, where the market crossed from above the panel's number to below it. Our New Hampshire board re-scores the seat on its first named-candidate run.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The second round is where this exercise earns its keep. On chamber control, the first round produced estimates from 18 to 64, a spread that would have made the headline number meaningless. After one revision round the same models sat between 37 and 47.
Gemini moved further than anyone, on Alaska, and said why:
"Iowa (R+6) and Alaska (R+6) sit just above the waterline; Hinson leads neutral polls like Emerson, and Sullivan's apparent deficits disappear once Alaska Survey Research's 6.5-point D-bias is corrected." — Gemini
That argument, which began as one model's observation, pulled six of the eight models toward it. Alaska's panel median moved from 44.5 to 52 between rounds, the biggest shift on any race.
Texas went the other way, from disagreement to consensus. In round one the models spread 19 points across Texas; in round two they spread four. Nothing new was fetched between the rounds; the models persuaded each other that the state's lean and the polling record cancel.
Opus held its ground on Alaska and flagged its own exposure rather than softening it:
"Alaska at 52 — I am 5-14 points above six of seven other forecasters because I apply ASR's documented D-lean. If that house effect has shrunk since the graded archive closed, or if ranked-choice second preferences consolidate behind Peltola as they did for Democratic-aligned candidates in prior Alaska cycles, I am wrong." — Claude Opus
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Three checkable events, each with the direction it pushes.
- A non-partisan Alaska poll from a firm other than Alaska Survey Research. The whole Alaska disagreement rests on how much to discount one pollster. One clean read from a graded-neutral firm settles it, and the September 2 read was that pollster again, so it does not count.
- The first named-candidate run in New Hampshire. Kalshi now lists Pappas and Sununu after the September 8 primary, so the next pass prices a matchup rather than a label, and it decides whether the market's 83.5 or the panel's stored 86.5 was closer.
- Post-Labor Day polling in Ohio. The panel's case rests on five of the last six surveys. Two clean September reads with Husted ahead would move the panel back toward the market faster than any other input on this board.
Each of those triggers a re-score on this same URL, with the change logged and the as-of stamp updated.
The Map: Why Four Seats Is The Whole Story
Thirty-five seats are up, 22 of them held by Republicans. Democrats defend the other 13 and need a net gain of four. That defense ratio is why the chamber is in play at all, and the threshold is why in play is different from even.
The chamber is decided inside the ten races that three or more raters call live. Seven are Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Three are Democratic-held: Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. Every Democratic loss adds a required pickup from the Republican column.
Opus walked the arithmetic, and its version is representative of how the panel got from race numbers to a control number. Read "R-held losses" as seats Republicans are expected to lose and "D-held pickups" as Democratic seats Republicans are expected to take:
"Control: expected R-held losses total 4.52, expected D-held pickups 0.82, net -3.70 against a 4-seat threshold (50-50 keeps R control)." — Claude Opus
That is the mechanism behind a 44% control number sitting beside race estimates that mostly track the market. The expected net is a hair short of the threshold, which means the chamber turns on whichever tossup breaks last. The environment points one way: a 6.3-point Democratic generic-ballot lead, presidential approval 21.7 points under water, and a base rate in which the president's party lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 postwar midterms.
The map points the other way, and 2018 is why the panel takes it seriously: that November, Democrats flipped 41 House seats and still lost two Senate seats, because they were defending most of the seats up. Same night, same voters, opposite chambers.
The control contract has barely moved while the races under it did: every daily close since August 17 has landed between 52 and 54 cents. The chamber-control board prices that question on its own.
The Bottom Line
Ten of the 15 races are settled arguments, with the money and the machines at the same answer. Ohio has drifted toward the panel's read, and the panel still thinks the market is behind the polling there. Georgia is priced like a finished race by a market looking at ratings that still say leaning. New Hampshire, the thinnest book, produced the biggest move on a poll that called itself a tie. And Alaska comes down to how much you trust one pollster with a measured lean, which is why eight independent models could not talk each other into agreeing.
The single most price-moving thing this board can experience before November is one clean, neutral survey out of Anchorage.
Verdicts generated August 23, 2026, after a revision round in which each model read the others' anonymized reasoning. Prices as of September 11, 2026, 09:40 UTC. Panel: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GPT, Gemini, GLM, Kimi and DeepSeek, all price-blind. This is a neutral, data-driven analysis of market prices, ratings, polling and historical patterns, and it does not advocate for any party, candidate or outcome.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
More on this: 2026 Senate Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track · How To Bet On 2026 Senate Elections: Kalshi Odds · Ohio Senate 2026 Odds: Brown Retakes The Lead At 52 Cents · Michigan Senate Race 2026: Five Polls, One Outlier, Odds That Won't Move · South Carolina Senate Runoff Odds: Graham Vs Norman, Kalshi
