Slate: Tuesday, Sep 15 · Updated Sep 15, 9:58 a.m. ET · Prices as of September 15, 2026, 8:54 a.m. ET, movers tracked through the 8 a.m. candle
Jump to: The Morning Grade · Pick of the Day · The Gap · Biggest Swings · Resolves Today · New Listings · Full Scoreboard
The Quick Answer
The market spent Monday marking down the chance that the Fed holds rates on Wednesday, and it has not marked it back up overnight. The contract on no change at Wednesday's meeting printed a 21¢ midpoint on the 8 a.m. candle Monday and 12¢ on the 5 p.m. one, and it has printed between 12 and 14 on every hourly candle since, 12 at 8 a.m. today. At 12¢ the market reads a hold as a 12% chance, and a Yes bought there risks 12¢ to win 88¢ if the Fed stands pat, with about 29 hours to the decision. The Fed decision event carries $78,210,066 across every outcome at the meeting at the 6:26 a.m. pull. It carried $65,662,045 at Monday's 7:24 a.m. pull. The decision settles at 2:05 p.m. Wednesday. The hour-by-hour path, the graded Monday night board, and Tuesday's card are below.
Monday night's board settled while the Fed row sat still. Seven seats had read Broncos-Chiefs as close to even back on September 2; Kansas City won by more than 6.5 points, so the four rows that faded a Kansas City margin all lost, while the seven that faded a Denver margin, the three total rows and a Bo Nix touchdown fade all paid. On those 15 game rows, that netted 84¢ on $10.16 staked. There is still no Pick of the Day, the widest gap has not moved a cent, and the day's deepest money is in Spain: Elche against Real Madrid is $1,755,591 across four rows.
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Wednesday's Fed hold contract, hour by hour, as its hourly midpoints printed from 8 a.m. Monday to 8 a.m. Tuesday, ET. The contract pays $1.00 if the Fed leaves rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting, and the midpoint is halfway between the best bid and the best ask on each candle.
| Candle (ET) | Hold midpoint | What the hour did |
|---|---|---|
| 8 a.m. Monday | 21¢ | The first candle in the window |
| 11 a.m. Monday | 17¢ | Down 2 from 19, the first of three two-cent drops |
| 1 p.m. Monday | 16¢ | Down 2 from 18, the second |
| 5 p.m. Monday | 12¢ | Nine hours and nine cents after the first candle |
| 8 p.m. Monday | 14¢ | The highest print since 5 p.m. |
| 9 p.m. Monday | 12¢ | Down 2 from 14, the third |
| 3 a.m. Tuesday | 14¢ | Matched the 8 p.m. high |
| 8 a.m. Tuesday | 12¢ | Back at the window's low |
The whole slide happened in Monday's daylight: nine cents in nine hours, in steps of one and two cents, and the biggest single hour was two cents, twice during the slide and once more at 9 p.m. Since 5 p.m. the row has not printed outside 12 to 14 across 15 more candles, so the overnight market held Monday's price rather than extending it. The money moved faster than the price did. The event traded $12,676,589 in the day to 6:26 a.m., 3.3 times the $3,844,101 it traded in the day to Monday's 7:24 a.m. pull. The event's book grew by $12,548,021 between the two pulls. That is a steady repricing on heavy volume, in one- and two-cent steps, not a one-print shock. Our screen flags the row as settling inside 30 hours and matches it to chatter on X about September rate-hike odds; neither flag names a cause for the slide. This page tracks only the hold contract. The cut and hike rows, and what each would pay, are on Fed decision odds.
Tuesday's card, as quoted at the 8:54 a.m. ET build, highest ask first. The card carries the rows that stamp from 1 p.m. onward with an ask between 28¢ and 96¢ and at least $1,000 on the book, so each can still be bought. The in-range rows that stamp between 10:30 and 11:15 a.m. are on the resolves table below; the in-range rows that stamp between 9 and 10 a.m., and most rows priced outside the range, are in the resolves and swings prose.
| Contract | Ask | Bid | Book | Settles (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 at 7,570 or above at the close | 92¢ | 91¢ | $33,962 | 7 p.m. stamp |
| India beat Afghanistan (T20) | 89¢ | 88¢ | $134,723 | 2 p.m. stamp |
| Arsenal advance past Ipswich Town (EFL Cup) | 89¢ | 88¢ | $90,935 | 6 p.m. stamp |
| Real Madrid beat Elche (La Liga) | 83¢ | 82¢ | $1,348,218 | 6:30 p.m. stamp |
| Liverpool advance past Tottenham (EFL Cup) | 70¢ | 69¢ | $188,555 | 6 p.m. stamp |
| Dodgers beat the Reds (6:40 p.m. start) | 69¢ | 68¢ | $89,210 | 9:40 p.m. stamp |
| Toluca beat Puebla (Liga MX) | 65¢ | 64¢ | $119,328 | 12 a.m. stamp |
| Real Madrid by more than 1.5 goals | 63¢ | 62¢ | $125,971 | 7:30 p.m. stamp |
| Alavés beat Valencia (La Liga) | 58¢ | 57¢ | $174,286 | 5 p.m. stamp |
| Real Madrid by more than 2.5 goals | 41¢ | 40¢ | $92,739 | 7:30 p.m. stamp |
| Trump's RCP approval exactly 39.4 at 1 p.m. | 39¢ | 34¢ | $5,886 | 1 p.m. |
| WTI crude settles above $101.99 | 39¢ | 38¢ | $22,544 | 2:30 p.m. |
| Trump's RCP approval exactly 39.5 at 1 p.m. | 36¢ | 32¢ | $7,906 | 1 p.m. |
| Bitcoin at $77,500 or above at 5 p.m. | 36¢ | 35¢ | $89,518 | 5:05 p.m. |
| Espanyol beat Rayo Vallecano (La Liga) | 31¢ | 30¢ | $176,930 | 4 p.m. stamp |
The card carries $2,700,711 across its 15 rows, and Real Madrid's win row is $1,348,218 of it. With the two margin rows, Elche against Real Madrid is $1,566,928 on the card and $1,755,591 across its four rows on the screen, counting Elche's own row at 6/7¢, which sits under the card's range. The three Real Madrid rows price the shape of the match: 83¢ to win, 63¢ to win by two goals or more, 41¢ to win by three or more, so the market charges 20 cents for a one-goal Real Madrid win and 22 cents for a two-goal one. The two EFL Cup ties are $279,490 between them, and the two RealClearPolitics rows are its thinnest, $5,886 on a quote five cents wide and $7,906 on one four cents wide.
The Morning Grade
The panel is a bank of AI models (Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GPT, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, GLM, and DeepSeek) that each put a probability on Kalshi markets. Every call is graded here against the real settlement.
The graded batch finished Monday and the first hours of Tuesday in the black. Positions are graded as one theoretical contract per call, bought on the panel's side at the ask. A Kalshi contract pays $1.00 when it settles your way, so a 76¢ Yes risks 76¢ to win 24¢. The ledger buys whichever side of 50 the panel favors, whether or not the panel's number clears the price, so a row can be bought above the seats' own number and still count as their call. The batch graded since the start of Monday is 143 calls at a 76.3¢ average price, 110 paid and 33 did not, a gain of $0.95 on $109.06 staked, up 0.9%.
Monday night is the part of that batch this page can walk through. Seven seats were asked about Broncos-Chiefs on the afternoon of September 2 and read it as close to even: GPT made it "close to a true pick'em," and Claude Opus wrote that the two teams' records "collapse to near-parity." So the panel sat under 50 on all 11 margin rows this page shows, and the ledger faded every one. Kansas City won by more than 6.5 points. The four Kansas City margin fades lost: more than 1.5, No at 46.5¢; more than 4.5, No at 59.5¢; more than 5.5, No at 61.5¢; and more than 6.5, No at 65¢. The seven Denver margin fades, from more than 1.5 to more than 14.5, all paid, from 39.5¢ on the 1.5 row down to 8.5¢ on the 14.5 row. The totals went three for three: the seats' 55.5 on over 39.5 bought the Yes at 61¢ and collected 39¢, and their reads under 50 on 41.5 and 42.5 bought the No at 44.5¢ and 48.5¢ and collected 55.5¢ and 51.5¢. Claude Fable's 22 on Bo Nix scoring a touchdown himself, against a 14¢ price, bought the No at 86¢ and paid 14¢. That is 11 of the game's rows paid and four lost, the net in the summary above.
The Emmys were graded just after midnight. DeepSeek was the only seat stored on the three rows, asked on August 1. It called The Pitt "the overwhelming favorite" for Outstanding Drama Series and still put 57 on it against an 89¢ price; the ledger bought the Yes at 89¢ and The Pitt won, a gain of 11¢. Its 24 on Pluribus bought the No at 93¢ and paid 7¢. Widow's Bay was 58¢ to win Outstanding Comedy Series and DeepSeek had it at 33; the No cost 42¢ and Widow's Bay won, a 42¢ loss that left the three Emmys rows at −24¢ on $2.24. The board is Emmys 2026 odds. Gemini's 96 on Brent crude closing above $101.50 on Monday, asked at 12:36 p.m. against a 74¢ price, paid 26¢. The five weather rows made 91¢ on $3.09, four of them paid: Chicago's 76-to-77 band, New York under 78 and Houston's rain all settled No against fades, Miami's 88-to-89 band for Monday paid 5¢ on a 95¢ No, and Miami's 91-to-92 band for Sunday hit for a 44¢ loss. The Al-Ittihad row from yesterday afternoon's page is the slice's last loss, 50¢. The 25 rows shown net $1.27 on $16.73 staked, 18 paid.
| Ledger | Calls | Avg price | Staked | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graded Since The Start Of Monday | 143 (110 paid, 33 did not) | 76.3¢ | $109.06 | +$0.95 | up 0.9% |
| Full 22-Day Window | 1,760 | — | $1,324.68 | +$24.32 | up 1.84% |
The rolling window reads 22 days, 1,760 calls at +$24.32, up 1.84%, from 1,655 calls at +$14.24, up 1.13%, on yesterday afternoon's page. The streak of profitable days is two, with Monday's closed row in the black on the ledger's daily count.
| Seat | Graded calls | Staked | Flat-stake return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 1,566 | $1,179.93 | up 2.04% |
| Claude Sonnet | 1,613 | $1,188.58 | up 1.38% |
| Grok | 4,409 | $3,373.82 | up 1.31% |
| Claude Opus | 1,620 | $1,219.78 | up 0.76% |
| DeepSeek | 2,232 | $1,662.04 | up 0.30% |
| Gemini | 4,869 | $3,755.09 | up 0.26% |
| GLM | 2,233 | $1,664.77 | up 0.01% |
| Kimi | 2,310 | $1,756.72 | down 0.10% |
| GPT | 5,211 | $3,951.36 | down 0.52% |
This table runs one contract per seat per call, so its rows are a longer and separate book from the batch above and are not meant to add up to it. Read it as nine books measured the same way. Between the two Monday pages no line rose; since yesterday afternoon's page the nine seats graded 810 seat-contracts and eight of the nine lines rose, with DeepSeek holding at up 0.30% on 27 new ones. Claude Opus moved most, from up 0.02% to up 0.76% on 89, GLM crossed zero from down 0.12% to up 0.01%, and Claude Fable leads at up 2.04%, from 1.43%. Kimi and GPT are the two seats still under zero, from three yesterday afternoon. This record grades whatever settles fast: temperature bands, rain contracts, fifteen-minute crypto candles, same-day soccer and tennis, and last night a football game. The complete history is public on the Model Verdict Scoreboard.
Marked to market, nine of the 12 open positions on the gap table below sit at a price further from the panel's number than the price the seats were shown. Two have come back toward it, the AP House-call row for 4 a.m. on November 4, two cents under where the seats saw it, and the Drake row, four cents under, and one, the AP House-call row for midnight on November 6, is quoted where it was asked.
Pick of the Day
No call today. The flagship needs a market settling inside 48 hours where the panel disagrees with the price, and the nearest expiration among the 12 rows on this morning's gap table is still October 7, 22 days out, on the goat-herder row at the top of it. Wednesday's Fed decision settles inside the window, but it is not among the rows the gap screen surfaces this morning, so the Fed board's panel run is not on this morning's sheet and this page has no panel number to set against the 12¢ price, and a flagship needs a full panel run behind it. The Fed's own board is linked above; the season-long football boards we track are on NFL 2026 on Kalshi.
The Gap
California authorizes an alternative wage or other relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before October 1. Market: 98¢. Panel: 29.4%, eight seats, asked the night of August 24.
The widest divergence on the pull is where it has sat for five mornings running: a 98¢ midpoint, a penny wide, on $649,565 of lifetime volume, flat since yesterday afternoon. Eight seats were asked on the night of August 24 against an 84¢ price and blended to 29.4, sitting between 18 and 40, and the lowest one, Claude Opus at 18, made the calendar its case: with no vehicle publicly identified after the August 21 floor-amendment deadline, a Yes needs leadership to open a trailer-bill or rule-waiver path in the session's final week over the labor opposition that stopped two earlier bills without a vote, plus a signature by September 30. The signature deadline that case named is 15 days out, and at 98¢ the market prices the relief as done. Our screen carries nothing on what moved the price to 98, and this page names no route beyond the one the seat's own case required. The stamp is October 7, and until then the row is a 68.6-point gap marked against the panel. The board is California goat-herder wage relief odds.
The table below is the 12 widest live divergences the morning pull surfaces, with the price now, the panel's blended number, the gap between them in points, the quoted spread and the lifetime book.
| Market | Price now | Panel | Gap | Spread | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California goat-herder wage relief before Oct 1 | 98¢ | 29.4% | −68.6 pts | 1¢ | $649,565 |
| More than 3 Central Pacific hurricanes in 2026 | 92¢ | 36.1% | −55.9 pts | 11¢ | $1,325 |
| More than 1 major Central Pacific hurricane in 2026 | 94¢ | 38.8% | −55.2 pts | 9¢ | $511 |
| Tesla-SpaceX merger agreement before 2028 | 71¢ | 17.0% | −54.0 pts | 4¢ | $18,259 |
| Jacob Misiorowski wins the NL Cy Young | 94¢ | 43.1% | −50.9 pts | 1¢ | $462,450 |
| AP calls the House majority before 4 a.m. ET Nov. 4 | 74¢ | 26.9% | −47.1 pts | 5¢ | $987 |
| Miami wins the 2026 ACC championship | 64¢ | 21.4% | −42.6 pts | 1¢ | $85,063 |
| New England wins at least 11 games in 2026 | 34¢ | 75.6% | +41.6 pts | 5¢ | $48,006 |
| Grand Theft Auto VI wins Game of the Year 2026 | 69¢ | 28.1% | −40.9 pts | 2¢ | $410,104 |
| AP calls the House majority before midnight ET Nov. 6 | 84¢ | 44.4% | −39.6 pts | 4¢ | $2,830 |
| More than 2 major Central Pacific hurricanes in 2026 | 51¢ | 13.1% | −37.9 pts | 6¢ | $876 |
| Drake is Spotify's 2026 U.S. Wrapped No. 1 artist | 78¢ | 40.9% | −37.1 pts | 1¢ | $230,171 |
More live boards from the same panel: Tesla-SpaceX merger odds, the biggest mover on the table overnight · NL Cy Young odds, Jacob Misiorowski's contract at a 94¢ midpoint · Kalshi hurricane markets, where three of the 12 rows on this table live.
The table turned over by one row and mostly held still. The newcomer is a third Central Pacific hurricane threshold: more than two major hurricanes, category 3 or above, is a 51¢ midpoint, six cents wide, on $876, against an eight-seat 13.1 taken August 23 at a 42¢ ask, with the seats between 10 and 17. All three Central Pacific rows on the table now sit more than 37 points above the panel, on books of $511 to $1,325. The new row replaced Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or contract, which is not on this morning's table.
Of the 11 rows carried over from yesterday afternoon's table, seven held their midpoint, three moved away from the panel and one came toward it. The mover is Tesla-SpaceX before 2028, from 62 to 71 against a seven-seat 17.0, its spread from three cents to four, on a book that went from $16,855 to $18,259; the row now carries the fourth-widest gap on the table, from sixth. New England to win at least 11 games, the one row where the panel sits above the price, went from 36 to 34 against an eight-seat 75.6 taken September 2, and Grand Theft Auto VI's Game of the Year row went from 68 to 69. Drake's Spotify row came back three cents, from 81 to 78, and its spread tightened from four cents to one. On the seats' graded disagreements with the price, the seat's side has settled its way between 28.8% of the time for Grok and 41.4% for DeepSeek among the nine seats, so a gap this size is a fact about the two numbers, not an argument for either.
Biggest Swings
The swings screen surfaces its 15 biggest movers this morning, in four groups: the Fed's hold row from the top of this page, a Bitcoin strike for 5 p.m., nine rows on seven matches that moved on the 6, 7 and 8 a.m. candles, and four slower rows, the Clarity Act, Buffalo's division, Aaron Glenn's Coach of the Year contract and a press-briefing mention row. Candles run hourly through 8 a.m., and each row's path starts at its first candle in the 24-hour window, so the paths open at different hours. The books beside the Bitcoin, Clarity Act, Buffalo, Coach of the Year and Fed rows are their whole events', and the last-day volumes on those rows are measured to the 6:26 a.m. coverage pull. The screen's flags on these rows describe timing and volume, never a cause, and this page attaches no cause to any of them. The table carries the eight rows with the cleanest shape; the rest are in the prose.
| Market | Path (hourly midpoints, through the 8 a.m. candle) | Biggest hop | Book | Expiry stamp (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin at $77,500 or above at 5 p.m. | 83¢ → 33¢ | −13 at 3 a.m. | $865,948 (event) | 5:05 p.m. |
| Crypto market-structure bill law before 2027 | 35¢ → 21¢ | −9 at 6 p.m. Mon. | $4,364,725 (event) | 10 a.m. Jan. 1 |
| Buffalo wins the AFC East | 68¢ → 57¢ | −6 at 6 p.m. Mon. | $424,911 (event) | 10 a.m. Jan. 11 |
| Aaron Glenn wins Coach of the Year | 19¢ → 8¢ | −15 at 11 a.m. Mon. | $1,724,267 (event) | 11 a.m. Mar. 30 |
| Press secretary says oil, gas or gasoline | 7¢ → 21¢ | +17 at 2 a.m. | $74,155 | 10 a.m. |
| Fed leaves rates unchanged Wednesday | 21¢ → 12¢ | −2, three times | $78,210,066 (event) | 2:05 p.m. Wed. |
| Beijing Guoan beat Pohang Steelers | 50¢ → 67¢ | +8 at 7 a.m. | $106,856 | 11:15 a.m. |
| Kylie Collins beats Ariana Arseneault | 76¢ → 46¢ | −30 at 8 a.m. | $278,306 | 9:10 a.m. |
The Bitcoin strike is the overnight story in one row. The 5 p.m. contract on the coin finishing at $77,500 or above printed 83 on its first candle at 5 p.m. Monday and slid through the night: 68 at 8 p.m., 58 at midnight, 43 at 3 a.m. on the row's biggest hop, 30 at 5 and 33 at 8. The 8:54 build quoted it at 35/36¢ on $89,518 of its own book. The 9 a.m. ladder puts the coin between $77,000 and $77,100 at the build, with $77,000 or above at 61/62¢ and $77,100 at 16/17¢, where Monday's 3:56 p.m. ladder had it between $79,000 and $79,100; the coin sits $1,900 to $2,100 lower than it did at yesterday afternoon's page, and the 5 p.m. line is $400 to $500 above it. The 5 p.m. event traded $862,960 in the last day on its $865,948 book. Our screen flags the row as settling inside 30 hours with its volume concentrated in the last day, and nothing more. The standing page on how these strikes settle is Kalshi Bitcoin price markets.
Nine rows on seven matches moved on the early candles, and all seven stamp between 9 and 11:15 a.m., so most will have stamped by the time this page is read. What they leave behind is that a candle is not the price. Kylie Collins printed 46 on the 8 a.m. candle in her WTA Challenger match with Ariana Arseneault and was 82/83¢ at the 8:54 build, and Lorenzo Carboni printed 81 at 8 a.m. in an ITF match and was no bid under a 1¢ ask at the build. The Chiba Lotte Marines printed 13 on the 6 a.m. candle, 70 at 7 and 52 at 8 in an NPB game and were 93/96¢ at the build with a 9 a.m. stamp, and the Lotte Giants printed 45 on the 8 a.m. candle in a KBO game and were 5/10¢ at the build. On six of the seven matches the build read the match more than 27 points away from the 8 a.m. candle; Beijing Guoan, 67 on the candle and 78/79¢ at the build in the AFC Champions League, is the one where the candle and the build sat within 12 points of each other. The deepest of the nine rows is Sebastiano Cocola's ITF match row at $469,260, 49/58¢ at the build. Our screen carries no scores, so these are quotes, not results.
The crypto market-structure bill is the one legislation row on the screen. The contract on it becoming law before 2027 printed 35 on the 8 a.m. candle Monday, 32 on the 3 p.m. candle yesterday afternoon's page quoted, 30 at 5, then 21 on the 6 p.m. candle, the row's biggest hop, and it has printed between 17 and 21 on every candle since, 21 at 8 a.m. The event's book is $4,364,725, $472,115 of it traded in the last day. Our Clarity Act page, last updated Monday, has the Senate's cloture vote on the bill set for today, September 15; this page does not tie the 6 p.m. drop to it. The bill's board is Clarity Act odds. Buffalo's AFC East contract fell on two six-cent candles, 65 to 59 at 6 p.m. Monday and 64 to 58 at 2 a.m., and has printed 57 or 58 since, on an event book of $424,911 that traded $37,948 in the last day; the board is AFC East odds. Aaron Glenn's Coach of the Year contract printed 19 through 10 a.m. Monday, 4 on the 11 a.m. candle, 14 from noon to 8 p.m., and 8 on every candle from 9 p.m. through 8 a.m.; the event's book is $1,724,267, $79,573 traded in the last day, and the board is NFL Coach of the Year odds.
The press-briefing row is the one slow mover that stamps this morning, at 10 a.m. The contract on the White House press secretary saying oil, gas or gasoline at her next briefing printed between 3 and 15 through 1 a.m., jumped from 15 to 32 on the 2 a.m. candle, and has printed between 16 and 24 since; the build quoted 25/30¢ on $74,155, with a 10 a.m. stamp. A separate board on Todd Blanche's White House briefing today prices the same three words at 47/51¢. The Fed's hold row, the last of the 15, is the story at the top of this page.
Resolves Today
The morning pull carries 53 contracts expiring on Tuesday's clocks, $9,210,053 between them: 51 on stamps through 9:40 p.m., worth $9,009,522, and two after midnight, Toluca at 12 a.m. and a Contender Series fight at 12:40, worth $200,531. The day runs in four waves. The morning wave is 33 rows and $6,096,609 stamped between 9 and 11:30 a.m., 18 of them overseas tennis, cricket and Asian baseball, and 15 of those 33 rows, $2,640,490, stamp before 10 a.m. and the other 18 by 11:30, so most of the wave will have stamped by the time this page is read. The midday wave is seven rows and $313,926 from 1 to 2:30 p.m.: the RealClearPolitics rows, India against Afghanistan and the two WTI rows. The evening wave is 10 rows and $2,509,777 from 4 to 7:30 p.m., the Spanish and English soccer, the 5 p.m. Bitcoin strike and the S&P row. The night is three rows and $289,741. The rows a reader can still buy that stamp from 1 p.m. onward are on the card at the top; the table below carries the six in-range rows the card left off that stamp from 10:30 to 11:15 a.m., in stamp order, as quoted at 8:54. The press-briefing row, which stamps at 10, is in the swings section above, and the first four rows here stamp at 10:30, so read them as the morning's last quotes rather than a buy list.
| Market | Category | Settles (ET) | Price | What decides it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriele Maria Noce beats Niccolo Ciavarella (ITF) | Tennis | 10:30 a.m. stamp | 71/72¢ | The match result |
| Niccolo Ciavarella beats Gabriele Maria Noce | Tennis | 10:30 a.m. stamp | 28/29¢ | Same match, other side |
| Sebastiano Cocola beats Louis Wessels (ITF) | Tennis | 10:30 a.m. stamp | 49/58¢ | The match result |
| Louis Wessels beats Sebastiano Cocola | Tennis | 10:30 a.m. stamp | 42/47¢ | Same match, other side |
| Gaia Maduzzi beats Amelia Paszun (ITF) | Tennis | 11 a.m. stamp | 82/83¢ | The match result |
| Beijing Guoan beat Pohang Steelers (AFC Champions League) | Soccer | 11:15 a.m. stamp | 78/79¢ | The match result |
The morning wave's deepest rows are off the table. The fifteen-minute Bitcoin candle for 9:05 was 90/91¢ on $848,494, the deepest single row on the screen after Real Madrid's, to finish at or above its $76,908.62 reference, and the 9 a.m. ladder beside it had $76,800 at 98/99¢, $76,900 at 93/94¢, $77,000 at 61/62¢ and $77,100 at 16/17¢, $688,704 across the four, and Miami's 9 a.m. temperature rows, 83° or above at 82/93¢ and 84° or above at 5/40¢, carry $2,781 between them. Australia is 97/98¢ against Zimbabwe in a one-day international, $887,068 across the two rows; Amsterdam is 99/100¢ against Dublin in a T20 match, with Dublin at no bid under a 1¢ ask; and in ATP Challenger tennis Marco Trungelliti is 99/100¢ against Sean Cuenin, and Johan Nikles is 30/31¢ against Djere at 9:50. The hottest-August row is 99/100¢ on $146,427 for a 10 a.m. stamp, and the row on Zohran Mamdani endorsing a candidate in a 2026 primary outside New York before September 15 is 3/6¢ on $23,121; its November 3 sibling is 30/33¢ on $360.
The midday rows are mostly numbers. The three RealClearPolitics rows for Trump's approval average at 1 p.m. are exactly 39.5 at 32/36¢, exactly 39.4 at 34/39¢ and below 39.2 at 2/5¢, $21,029 between them; yesterday afternoon's screen carried rows at 39.7 and 39.8 for the same reading. WTI's two rows for the 2:30 p.m. settlement are above $101.99 at 38/39¢ on the card and above $102.99 at 19/21¢, and Afghanistan is 10/11¢ against India on $112,054. In the evening, Elche is 6/7¢ against Real Madrid on $188,663, and the night's out-of-range row is Ednilson Santos at 7/8¢ in his Contender Series fight.
The fine print for today: the S&P row stamps at 7 p.m. but pays on the index's end-of-day value at the 4 p.m. close. The two RealClearPolitics exactly rows need the Approve figure in the RCP Average row to read exactly 39.4 or 39.5 at 1 p.m. The two EFL Cup rows pay on which side advances past the tie, and the rules text says nothing about extra time or penalties; the La Liga and Liga MX rows, including the two Real Madrid margin rows, pay on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded. WTI settles on the October contract's daily settlement price. The press-briefing row pays on the exact word or its plural or possessive, and gaggles do not count. The three cricket matches pay 50¢ on every row if there is no official winner.
What else to watch. Six mention boards have their events today and will not appear on any resolves table, because their expiration stamps are not on today's resolves screen. The deepest is Kash Patel's Senate FBI hearing, 18 markets and $17,572: the word fentanyl is 70/72¢, the tightest quote among its top rows, and the word Trump three or more times is 78/88¢. The deepest single row, at $3,021, is whether he says the word Epstein, 52/59¢. Melania Trump's North Carolina remarks are 12 markets and $12,757, and the deepest row there, at $3,096, is the one that pays if the event does not qualify, 0/21¢; safe or safety is 60/61¢ and hurricane 61/68¢. The Walmart CEO at Goldman Sachs's retailing conference is 15 markets and $12,022: rollback 45/48¢, inflation 38/39¢, Apple Pay 29/31¢ and delivery 92/95¢. Zohran Mamdani's announcement is 13 markets and $7,883, with afford or affordability at 52/63¢ and five borough at 50/61¢. Marc Benioff's Dreamforce keynote is 15 markets and $4,993: Agentforce 90/93¢, agentic 88/91¢, SaaSpocalypse 51/52¢ and OpenAI or ChatGPT 47/51¢. Todd Blanche's briefing is 20 markets and $4,083, with the word Vance at 44/55¢. The wide quotes on the smaller boards say how few contracts have traded.
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New Listings
Twenty-five contracts are on the listings screen since Monday morning, $626,087 between them, and 13 are baseball rows for Tuesday night, $281,451 of it, nine of which opened together at 2:30 p.m. Monday. The other 12 are four index and crypto rows that opened at 4 p.m. for the 4 p.m. close and the 5 p.m. crypto reads, two golf winners and a NASCAR winner for the weekend, a Thursday football row, an MVP row, a WTA match, a Los Angeles temperature row and a TV mention row. The Nasdaq-100 row for 29,100 or above at the 4 p.m. close is 64/67¢ on $20,490, three cents wide. Prices are quoted bid and ask, the best price a buyer is offering and the best a seller will take. Rated on structure only.
- White Sox-Guardians over 8.5 runs, 51/52¢. Worth a look for the depth. Opened at 2:30 p.m. Monday and carries $54,675, the deepest baseball row on the shelf, a penny wide, and stamps at 9:40 p.m.
- Dodgers-Reds, three rows. Worth a look as a set. The Dodgers by more than 1.5 runs is 56/57¢ on $46,998, the first five innings 59/60¢ on $13,178 and the over 8.5 50/51¢ on $14,507, all a penny wide, beside the side on the card at 68/69¢. The run line and the side together price a one-run Dodgers win at 12 cents: 69 on the side, 57 on the margin.
- Jared Goff to score a touchdown in Detroit-Buffalo on Thursday, 4/5¢. Trap on the wording. Opened at 7:15 p.m. Monday and carries $45,263. The row counts touchdowns Goff scores himself, not the ones he throws.
- Diane Parry against Stearns, 47/48¢. Worth a look. The one tennis row on the shelf, $17,113 on it, a penny wide, with a 5 p.m. stamp.
- Kenneth Walker for MVP, a bid of zero under a 1¢ ask, and two golf winners with no quote at all. Skip. The Walker row opened at 11:50 p.m. Monday and carries $18,491; Keller Harper to win the Biltmore Championship Asheville carries $36,638 and Maximilian Steinlechner to win the BMW PGA Championship $14,257, both quoted with nothing on either side, and a row with a book and no quote is not a price.
How this page works. The prices above come from Kalshi's public API, pulled the morning of September 15, 2026: the card, resolves and listings screens were quoted at the 8:54 a.m. ET build, the candle paths run through the 8 a.m. candle, and the event books and last-day volumes beside the swings come from the 6:26 a.m. coverage pull. The grades come from our public verdict ledger, where every AI-panel call is stored with its ask-time price and graded against the real settlement. Availability varies by state. Event contracts involve risk.
