Kalshi Picks Today: Lions 7.5 Holds, Commanders a Cent Short

Slate: Friday, October 30 · Prices as of October 30, 2026, 12:43 p.m. ET

The Stokastic Sims ran Sunday's Vikings at Lions a seventh time at 9:18 p.m. CT Thursday, 10,000 games that have Detroit winning 61.3 percent of them by a median four points on 46, and the box below puts any question you have about the game to that run, free. It is the run behind the one listed row the board still clears this afternoon, and the Kalshi prices next to it are this afternoon's.

The Quick Answer

Nothing new to trade since the morning: no Stokastic Sims run has updated since Thursday night, and the Lions by more than 7.5 at 33 cents is still the one listed row that clears, the row I would take first. The 9:18 p.m. CT Thursday run reads 36.20 percent, 3.20 under the ask and 1.20 after Kalshi's two-cent fee, a first clear after three misses in a row. A rung on this page clears when its ask sits 2.5 points or more under a Sims run, and it lists as a row when it clears on two runs in a row. What moved between 10:12 a.m. and 12:43 p.m. is the prices, 85 of the 604 active week 8 contracts, 79 of them by a cent and none by more than two.

The other seven rows still miss, and only one of them moved its ask. The Commanders by more than 10.5 came back a cent, 34 to 33 on a 32-cent bid, and at 33 the run's 35.45 reads 2.45 under, a miss by five hundredths of a point, which is one cent of ask: at 32 it would read as a clear. The Raiders 4.5 at 32, the Bills 9.5 at 28, the Chiefs 6.5 at 31 and the Steelers 7.5 at 35 sit on the first misses the morning page gave them, the Steelers row still the one whose ask sits over its run, and the Buccaneers 6.5 and Patriots 10.5 sit on their fourth and fifth, the Patriots bid down a cent to 36. Every row keeps its slot until Sunday.

The market and the Sims still split on Pittsburgh from both ends, and that is where the widest reads are. The Browns by more than 1.5 at 33 reads 5.83 under, the widest rung on the board, and cannot list behind the Steelers row. The Browns to win got a cent dearer, to 37, and still reads 4.16 under with half the run's tie, from 5.16 this morning. One rung joined the clears on its ask alone, the Bills by more than 5.5 at 41 after 42, 2.69 under, count one, in a game whose row is the Bills 9.5. Tonight's three hockey favorites grade at the morning asks they were listed at, and Vegas has slipped a cent to 51 since.

The Picks

Eight rows are open, and the first table is those eight: the rung, the ask that listed it, the ask now, what the newest run reads against it and how many runs in a row it has cleared or missed, the Kalshi row and when it settles.

Game (ET)	Listed rung	Listed at (bid)	Ask now (bid)	Newest run	Kalshi row	Settles
Ravens at Bills, Sun 1:00	Bills by over 9.5	28¢ (27¢)	28¢ (26¢)	29.87%, 1.87 under, first miss after five clears (Thu 9:02 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01BALBUF-BUF10	Sunday, Highmark Stadium
Raiders at Jets, Sun 1:00	Raiders by over 4.5	32¢ (31¢)	32¢ (30¢)	33.18%, 1.18 under, first miss after six clears (Thu 9:13 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LVNYJ-LV5	Sunday, MetLife Stadium
Browns at Steelers, Sun 1:00	Steelers by over 7.5	34¢ (33¢)	35¢ (34¢)	33.56%, ask 1.44 over the run at 35 and 0.44 over at 34, first miss after two clears (Thu 9:06 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01CLEPIT-PIT8	Sunday, Acrisure Stadium
Falcons at Buccaneers, Sun 1:00	Buccaneers by over 6.5	32¢ (30¢)	34¢ (33¢)	34.57%, 0.57 under at 34 and 2.57 at 32, fourth miss (Thu 9:00 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01ATLTB-TB7	Sunday, Raymond James Stadium
Vikings at Lions, Sun 1:00	Lions by over 7.5	33¢ (32¢)	33¢ (32¢)	36.20%, 3.20 under, first clear after three misses (Thu 9:18 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01MINDET-DET8	Sunday, Ford Field
Chiefs at Broncos, Sun 4:25	Chiefs by over 6.5	30¢ (29¢)	31¢ (29¢)	32.70%, 1.70 under at 31 and 2.70 at 30, first miss after three clears (Thu 9:27 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01KCDEN-KC7	Sunday, Empower Field at Mile High
Patriots at Dolphins, Sun 4:25	Patriots by over 10.5	37¢ (36¢)	38¢ (36¢)	39.43%, 1.43 under at 38 and 2.43 at 37, fifth miss (Thu 9:30 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01NEMIA-NE11	Sunday, Hard Rock Stadium
Eagles at Commanders, Sun 8:20	Commanders by over 10.5	30¢ (29¢)	33¢ (32¢)	35.45%, 2.45 under at 33 after 34 this morning and 5.45 at 30, second miss (Thu 9:34 p.m. CT)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01PHIWAS-WAS11	Sunday, Northwest Stadium

The Lions row is the one that came back. Detroit by more than 7.5 read 34.54 percent on the 11:36 a.m. run the Thursday afternoon page carried, 1.54 under a 33-cent ask, and reads 36.20 on the 9:18 p.m. run at the same 33 on a 32-cent bid, 3.20 under, a clear by the run alone. The run moved the game to Detroit, 61.27 percent to win outright by a median four on 46 points after 59.38 by three, and the market held at 63 on a 62-cent bid, so the market sits 1.36 over the run with half the tie credited to each side, down from 3.13 Thursday afternoon. The ladder clears with it: the Lions 9.5 at 29, a cent dearer than Thursday, reads 31.86, 2.86 under, a second clear in a row on the run; the 6.5 at 39 reads 41.91, 2.91 under, and the 4.5 at 45 reads 47.60, 2.60 under, count one each; the 3.5 at 48 reads 50.3, 2.3, short. The Vikings to win at 38, which read 40.13 Thursday afternoon, reads 38.36 now, 0.36 under. The row is marked flat at the ask and minus a cent at the bid, and after three misses that cost it nothing, its count starts again at one.

The Raiders row lost its run. Las Vegas by more than 4.5 read 36.72 percent on the 11:33 a.m. CT run through two Thursday pages, 5.72 under at 31; the 9:13 p.m. run has the Jets at 53.35 percent to win outright by a median two on 46 points after 49.52 by zero, and the rung reads 33.18 against a 32-cent ask on a 30-cent bid, a cent dearer than Thursday afternoon, 1.18 under, its first miss after six clears in a row. The whole Raiders ladder went with it: the 5.5 at 31 after 29 reads 31.14, 0.14 under, after six clears of its own; the 3.5 at 35 reads 35.89, 0.89; the 2.5 at 43 after 42 reads 41.73, its ask 1.27 over the run, and the 1.5 at 46 after 45 reads 43.73, 2.27 over. The Jets rungs took their place, count one each: the Jets by more than 4.5 at 36 reads 39.02, 3.02 under; the 5.5 at 34 reads 36.96, 2.96; the 3.5 at 39 reads 41.93, 2.93; the 6.5 at 30 after 31 this morning reads 33.70, 3.70, the one Jets rung whose ask moved since the morning. The Jets to win at 53 reads 53.84 with half the 0.99 percent tie, so the market sits 0.84 under the run on New York, and the Raiders to win holds 47, unchanged since the morning after 48 Thursday afternoon, against a 46.16 read. The row marks flat at the ask and two cents under at the bid, and it grades at 32 on Sunday whatever the run says between now and then.

The Steelers row is the one where the market likes Pittsburgh more than the Sims do at every rung. Pittsburgh by more than 7.5 asked 33 Thursday afternoon and asks 35 on a 34-cent bid now, and the 9:06 p.m. run reads 33.56 after 36.64, so the ask sits 1.44 over the run and 0.44 over it at the 34 that listed the row, a first miss after two clears and the only row of the eight whose run reads under its ask. The run moved the game to Cleveland, Pittsburgh 58.49 percent to win outright by a median three on 39 points after 60.92 by four, and the market held at 65 on 64, so Pittsburgh to win sits 6.16 over the run with half the tie credited, the widest market-over-run on the board by 1.71 points over Cincinnati. That is where the Browns side comes from. The Browns to win at 37, back to Thursday afternoon's ask after 36 this morning, reads 41.16 with its half of the 0.71 percent tie, 4.16 under and 2.16 after the fee; the Browns by more than 1.5 at 33 after 34 reads 38.83, 5.83 under, the widest rung on the board; the Browns 2.5 at 32 reads 37.08, 5.08 under; the Browns 3.5 at 26 reads 31.2, 5.2 under, and sits under the floor. Each counts one, since the 11:25 a.m. run read them 1.59, 2.35 and 2.40 under Thursday afternoon, and none can list behind the Steelers row, which holds the game's slot until Sunday. The Steelers 9.5 at 31 after 29 reads 29.31 and fell off. The row sits a cent over its listing at the ask and level at the bid.

The Chiefs row missed on the price and the ladder behind it held. Kansas City by more than 6.5 read 34.30 percent on the 11:45 a.m. run against 30 and reads 32.70 on the 9:27 p.m. run against 31 on a 29-cent bid, 1.70 under at the ask and 2.70 at the 30 that listed it, a first miss after three clears in a row, made by a cent of ask and a point and a half of run together; at 30 the new run clears. The run has Kansas City at 53.21 percent to win outright by a median two on 40 points after 53.02 on 41, 53.84 with half the 1.27 percent tie, against a 53-cent ask on 52 unchanged since Wednesday, so the market sits 0.84 under the run on the favorite, and Kansas City and the Jets, at the same 0.84, are the two favorites the Sims like more than the market this afternoon. Behind the row the Chiefs 5.5 at 33 reads 36.10, 3.10 under, a second clear in a row after 4.71, and the Chiefs 3.5 at 39 after 38 reads 41.65, 2.65 under, a second clear in a row after 4.22; both sit in a game that already holds a row, so neither can list. The Chiefs 4.5 at 36 after 35 reads 38.31, 2.31 under, and fell off after two clears, since at 35 the new run reads 3.31. The row is marked plus a cent at the ask and minus a cent at the bid.

The Bills row missed by a cent and a point. Buffalo by more than 9.5 listed at 28, asked 27 Thursday afternoon and asks 28 on a 26-cent bid now; the 9:02 p.m. run reads 29.87 after 30.96, 1.87 under, a first miss after five clears, and neither half made it alone: at 27 the new run reads 2.87 and clears, and at 28 the old run read 2.96 and cleared. The run barely moved, Buffalo 60.00 percent to win outright by a median three on 55 after 60.31, and Buffalo to win asks 62 on 61 unchanged, 1.62 over the run with half the tie credited. The three Bills notes Thursday afternoon's page carried all fell: the 7.5 at 32 after 31 reads 34.00, 2.00 under; the 4.5 at 44 after 43 reads 46.04, 2.04; the 6.5 at 38 reads 39.95, 1.95; and the 3.5 at 47, never a note, reads 49.1, 2.1, short with them. One Bills rung went the other way this afternoon: the 5.5 asked 42 this morning and asks 41 on a 40-cent bid now, and the run's 43.69 reads 2.69 under at 41 after 1.69 at 42, an ask clear that counts one, in a game whose row is the 9.5. At the ask the row is flat; at the 26-cent bid it is two cents under water.

The Buccaneers row missed a fourth time, and the price did it. Tampa Bay by more than 6.5 asked 33 Thursday afternoon and asks 34 on a 33-cent bid now, two cents over the 32 that listed it; the 9:00 p.m. run reads 34.57 after 34.73, so the rung reads 0.57 under at the ask and 2.57 at the listing. The run has Tampa Bay at 54.79 percent to win outright by a median three on 44 points after 54.48 on 45, and Tampa Bay to win asks 56 on 55 unchanged, 0.73 over the run. The Falcons rungs that sat behind the slot fell on their asks, not their runs: the Falcons 4.5 at 30 after 28 reads 30.90 after 30.78, 0.90 under, off after three clears in a row, and the Falcons 3.5 at 33 after 31 reads 33.68, the same figure to the hundredth as Thursday afternoon, 0.68 under after 2.68, off after two. The Buccaneers 3.5 at 42 after 41 this morning reads 43.2, 1.2 under, short. The row is marked plus two cents at the ask and plus one at the bid.

The Patriots row missed a fifth time and the overs went with it. New England by more than 10.5 asked 37 Thursday afternoon and asks 38 on a 36-cent bid now, the bid a cent lower than this morning; the 9:30 p.m. run reads 39.43 after 38.00, 1.43 under at 38 and 2.43 at the 37 that listed it, the run coming a point and a half toward the rung and the ask taking a cent of it back. The run has New England at 74.60 percent to win outright by a median seven on 44 points after 73.23, 74.95 with half the tie, against a 77-cent ask on 76 unchanged, so the market sits 2.05 over the run after 3.31. The six Patriots-Dolphins overs that cleared on Thursday's two- and three-cent ask cuts all fell on the new run at unchanged asks: over 42.5 at 52 reads 54.10, 2.10 under after 4.07; over 43.5 at 48 reads 50.11, 2.11 after 3.65; over 41.5 at 54 reads 55.83, 1.83 after 3.71; over 46.5 at 39 reads 40.84, 1.84 after 3.27; over 35.5 at 74 reads 75.51, 1.51 after 3.05; over 45.5 at 42 reads 43.26, 1.26 after 2.85. The median total held at 44; the run took 1.43 to 1.97 points off every over. At the ask the row is up a cent; at the bid it is a cent under its listing.

The Commanders row missed a second time and is the row most in the black. Washington by more than 10.5 listed at 30, asked 31 at noon Thursday, 32 that afternoon, 34 at 10:12 this morning and asks 33 on a 32-cent bid now, the one listed row whose ask moved since the morning; the 9:34 p.m. run reads 35.45 after 33.97, 2.45 under at the ask, five hundredths short of a clear, and 5.45 at the 30 that listed it, so the run came toward the rung Thursday night and the ask gave back one of the four cents it had climbed since the listing. The run has Washington at 67.95 percent to win outright by a median six on 40 points after 67.83, and Washington to win asks 71 on a 69-cent bid after 70, 2.62 over the run with half the tie credited, third widest on the board. The one clear in the game is a total: over 32.5 at 74 after 75 reads 76.95, 2.95 under, a clear the run and the cut made together, since Thursday afternoon's run at 74 read 1.81 and Thursday night's run at 75 reads 1.95, and it counts one. The row is marked plus three cents at the ask after four this morning and plus two at the bid.

Take the eight rows together and the read since Thursday afternoon is that the winners barely changed and the margins did, and the afternoon's prices do not change it. The market priced the favorite to win more often than the Sims do in twelve of fourteen games Thursday afternoon and does in eleven of thirteen now; what changed overnight is who the exceptions are and how wide the widest is, and what changed since the morning is a cent on Cincinnati. The Jets joined the Chiefs under the run because the 9:13 p.m. run moved 3.8 points to New York, the Chiefs were already there Thursday, and Pittsburgh went from 3.59 over the run to 6.16, at 65 against 58.84, with Cincinnati next at 4.45 after a cent more to 87. Where the market is over the run on the winner and over it on the margin too, as it is at Pittsburgh, the other side's rungs clear top to bottom, and that is why the widest reads on the board are Browns rungs and not a favorite's margin.

Kalshi board.

Open rows: KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01MINDET (DET8 at 33, a first clear after three misses at 3.2, count one, run moved to Detroit 61.27; DET10 at 29 after 28 a second clear in a row at 2.9; DET7 at 39 and DET5 at 45 clear, count one each; KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET-MIN at 38 reads 38.36 with half the tie, no clear), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LVNYJ (LV5 listed at 32, asking 32, a FIRST MISS after six clears at 1.18, slot kept; run flipped to the Jets 53.35; LV6, LV4, LV3 and LV2 all fall off; NYJ5 at 36, NYJ6 at 34, NYJ4 at 39 and NYJ7 at 30 after 31 clear, count one each; KXNFLGAME-26NOV01LVNYJ-NYJ at 53 reads 53.84, market 0.84 under the run), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01CLEPIT (PIT8 listed at 34, asking 35, a FIRST MISS after two clears with the run at 33.56 UNDER the ask, slot kept; PIT10 at 31 after 29 falls off; KXNFLGAME-26NOV01CLEPIT-CLE at 37 after 36 this morning reads 41.16 with half the tie, 4.16 under, count one; CLE2 at 33 reads 5.83, the widest rung on the board, count one; CLE3 at 32 reads 5.08, count one; KXNFLGAME-26NOV01CLEPIT-PIT at 65 reads 58.84, market 6.16 over, the widest), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01KCDEN (KC7 listed at 30, asking 31, a FIRST MISS after three clears at 1.70, 2.70 at the listing, slot kept; KC6 at 33 a second clear in a row at 3.1; KC4 at 39 after 38 a second clear in a row at 2.65; KC5 at 36 after 35 falls off at 2.31), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01BALBUF (BUF10 listed at 28, asking 28, a FIRST MISS after five clears at 1.87, slot kept; BUF6 at 41 after 42 clears at 2.69 on the cent, count one, NEW this afternoon; BUF8, BUF5, BUF7 and BUF4 all read 1.95 to 2.1, none clears), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01ATLTB (TB7 listed at 32, asking 34, a fourth miss at 0.57, 2.57 at the listing, slot kept; ATL5 at 30 after 28 falls off after three clears at 0.90; ATL4 at 33 after 31 falls off at 0.68), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01NEMIA (NE11 at 38 after 37 on a bid down to 36, a fifth miss at 1.43, 2.43 at the listing, slot kept; KXNFLTOTAL-26NOV01NEMIA-36, -42, -43, -44, -46 and -47 all fall off on the run at unchanged asks), KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01PHIWAS (WAS11 listed at 30, asking 33 after 34 this morning, a second miss at 2.45, five hundredths short, 5.45 at the listing, slot kept, marked plus three; KXNFLTOTAL-26NOV01PHIWAS-33 at 74 after 75 clears at 2.95, count one). Clears without a row elsewhere: KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01ARIDAL-DAL11 at 38 (3.94), DAL8 at 46 after 47 (3.71) and DAL10 at 42 (3.29), count one each; KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LACLAR-LAR8 at 44 (2.62), count one. Nothing new lists: every rung with two clears in a row sits in a game that already holds a row.

Sunday's Vikings at Lions run, the one from 9:18 p.m. CT Thursday, is loaded in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, which prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, on your phone, free, no login. It is the game's seventh run; the asks beside it are this afternoon's.

Week 8: No Run Since Thursday Night, and One Row Moved Its Ask

With no new run to read, the useful number for each missing row is the ask at which the run already on the page would clear it again, 2.5 under before rounding: the Bills 9.5 clears at 27, the Raiders 4.5 at 30, the Chiefs 6.5 at 30, the Steelers 7.5 at 31, the Buccaneers 6.5 at 32, the Commanders 10.5 at 32 and the Patriots 10.5 at 36. Three of the seven sit a cent from it, the Bills at 28, the Commanders at 33 and the Chiefs at 31, and the Steelers at 35 sit four away, the farthest of the seven; a row that reaches its re-entry ask reads as an ask clear, count one, and keeps its slot either way; none of these is a price this page expects, only the price at which the row would read as a clear again.

The table is every week 8 game still to play with a Kalshi board at the 12:43 p.m. pull, in kickoff order, the favorite by the higher ask with the other side's ask, and the newest run beside it, labeled by how many runs this page has read for the game; the favorite's read is its outright wins from the run, and the market-over-run figures add half the run's ties to each side. Thursday night's Panthers at Packers is settled and sits in its own section below.

Game (ET)	Favorite	Price (bid)	Other side	Newest run: favorite wins, median margin, median total	Reads
Ravens at Bills, Sun 1:00	Buffalo	62¢ (61¢)	Baltimore 39¢	Sixth: 60.0%, by 3, 55 (Thu 9:02 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Bills 9.5 at 28, a first miss after five clears at 1.87; Bills 5.5 at 41 after 42 clears at 2.69 on the cent, count one; Bills 7.5 at 32 after 31, 4.5 at 44 after 43, 6.5 at 38 and 3.5 at 47 all read 1.95 to 2.1 under and fall off; market 1.6 over
Titans at Bengals, Sun 1:00	Cincinnati	87¢ (86¢)	Tennessee 14¢	Seventh: 82.3%, by 11, 47 (Thu 9:21 p.m. CT)	Cincinnati 86 to 87 since the morning after 84 to 86 overnight, Tennessee 15 to 14, on a run that moved a tenth of a point; market 4.5 over after 3.5, second widest; Titans to win at 14 reads 17.45 but sits under the floor; nothing clears
Cardinals at Cowboys, Sun 1:00	Dallas	75¢ (74¢)	Arizona 26¢	Seventh: 74.5%, by 7, 55 (Thu 8:57 p.m. CT)	Overnight: run up a point and a half toward Dallas; market 0.2 over, the closest on the board; Cowboys 10.5 at 38 clears at 3.9, 7.5 at 46 after 47 at 3.7 and 9.5 at 42 at 3.3, count one each; Cowboys 6.5 at 54 reads 2.1
Vikings at Lions, Sun 1:00	Detroit	63¢ (62¢)	Minnesota 38¢	Seventh: 61.3%, by 4, 46 (Thu 9:18 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Lions 7.5 at 33 clears at 3.2 after three misses; Lions 9.5 at 29 a second clear in a row at 2.9; Lions 6.5 at 39 and 4.5 at 45 clear, count one; Vikings to win at 38 reads 38.36, no clear; market 1.4 over after 3.1
Raiders at Jets, Sun 1:00	New York	53¢ (52¢)	Las Vegas 47¢	Seventh: Jets 53.4%, by 2, 46 (Thu 9:13 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Raiders 4.5 at 32, a FIRST MISS after six clears at 1.18; the Raiders 5.5, 3.5, 2.5 and 1.5 all fall off; Jets 4.5 at 36, 5.5 at 34, 3.5 at 39 and 6.5 at 30 after 31 clear, count one each; Jets to win at 53 reads 53.84, market 0.8 under the run
Browns at Steelers, Sun 1:00	Pittsburgh	65¢ (64¢)	Cleveland 37¢	Sixth: 58.5%, by 3, 39 (Thu 9:06 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Steelers 7.5 at 35 after 33 Thursday afternoon, a FIRST MISS after two clears, the run 1.44 under the ask; Browns to win at 37 after 36 reads 41.16 with half the tie, 4.2 under; Browns 1.5 at 33 reads 5.8, the widest rung on the board; Browns 2.5 at 32 reads 5.1; count one each; market 6.2 over, the widest
Falcons at Buccaneers, Sun 1:00	Tampa Bay	56¢ (55¢)	Atlanta 45¢	Seventh: 54.8%, by 3, 44 (Thu 9:00 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Buccaneers 6.5 at 34 after 33, a fourth miss at 0.57, 2.57 at the listing; Falcons 4.5 at 30 after 28 and Falcons 3.5 at 33 after 31 fall off on two-cent rises; market 0.7 over; nothing clears
Colts at Jaguars, Sun 1:00	Jacksonville	81¢ (80¢)	Indianapolis 20¢	Seventh: 79.5%, by 10, 47 (Thu 9:10 p.m. CT)	Overnight: run up a point on the margin and the total; market 1.2 over; over 46.5 at 50 after 49 reads 50.4, 0.4 under; Colts to win at 20 sits under the floor; nothing clears
Chargers at Rams, Sun 4:05	Los Angeles Rams	74¢ (73¢)	Los Angeles Chargers 27¢	Seventh: 71.2%, by 7, 45 (Thu 9:24 p.m. CT)	Rams 7.5 at 44 clears at 2.6 on the run, count one, after falling off Thursday afternoon; Rams 6.5 at 50 reads 2.4 and 9.5 at 40 reads 2.1; market 2.4 over
Chiefs at Broncos, Sun 4:25	Kansas City	53¢ (52¢)	Denver 48¢	Seventh: 53.2%, by 2, 40 (Thu 9:27 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Chiefs 6.5 at 31 after 30, a FIRST MISS after three clears at 1.70, 2.70 at the listing; Chiefs 5.5 at 33 a second clear in a row at 3.1; Chiefs 3.5 at 39 after 38 a second clear in a row at 2.65; Chiefs 4.5 at 36 after 35 falls off at 2.31; market 0.8 under the run
Patriots at Dolphins, Sun 4:25	New England	77¢ (76¢)	Miami 24¢	Seventh: 74.6%, by 7, 44 (Thu 9:30 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Patriots 10.5 at 38 after 37, a fifth miss at 1.43, 2.43 at the listing; all six overs fall off on the run at unchanged asks, the 42.5 at 52 and 43.5 at 48 closest at 2.1; market 2.1 over after 3.3
Eagles at Commanders, Sun 8:20	Washington	71¢ (69¢)	Philadelphia 30¢	Seventh: 68.0%, by 6, 40 (Thu 9:34 p.m. CT)	LISTED: Commanders 10.5 listed at 30, asking 33 after 34 this morning, a second miss at 2.45, five hundredths short, 5.45 at the listing; over 32.5 at 74 after 75 clears at 2.95, count one; Washington 71 on a bid down to 69, market 2.6 over, third widest
Bears at Seahawks, Mon 8:15	Seattle	62¢ (61¢)	Chicago 40¢	Seventh: 59.4%, by 3, 47 (Fri 12:21 a.m. CT)	Seattle 62 on a bid up to 61, the run unchanged; market 2.2 over; Seahawks 3.5 at 47 reads 48.1, 1.1 under; Bears 4.5 at 26 after 24 reads 27.0, 1.0 under, and sits under the 28-cent floor; nothing clears

Overnight the runs moved most in the three games where rows sat, Raiders at Jets 3.8 points to New York, Browns at Steelers 2.4 to Cleveland and Vikings at Lions 1.9 to Detroit, and nothing has run since. The prices did most of their moving between Thursday afternoon and this morning, when seven of the eight rows got dearer, the Steelers 7.5 and the Commanders 10.5 by two cents each and the Buccaneers 6.5, Chiefs 6.5, Patriots 10.5, Bills 9.5 and Raiders 4.5 by one, with only the Lions 7.5 holding at 33; since 10:12 a.m. the asks moved on 85 of the 604 active week 8 contracts, eighteen of forty-six in Bears at Seahawks at one end and two of forty-eight in Chargers at Rams at the other, and the one listed row among them is the Commanders 10.5, back a cent to 33. On the winners, with half the run's tie credited to each side, Pittsburgh at 65 against 58.84 is the one disagreement that matters, 6.16 over the run, with Cincinnati next at 4.45 after a cent more to 87 on top of the overnight rise to 86, and it is why the Browns rungs clear; the Jets and Kansas City, at 53 against 53.84 apiece, are the two favorites priced under their runs, and Dallas at 75 against 74.84 is the favorite the market and the Sims agree on most closely.

The second table is every rung that clears at 12:43 p.m. and is not a row, each with its ask, how far under it reads, how many runs in a row it has cleared and which run the newest clear came on, and the Kalshi row; three sit behind a listed row in their game with two clears, and the fifteen with one clear are notes, one of them new since the morning.

Rung	Ask (bid)	Run read	Under	Clears in a row (newest run)	Kalshi row
Browns by over 1.5	33¢ (32¢)	38.83%	5.83	1 (sixth; ask 34 to 33)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01CLEPIT-CLE2
Browns by over 2.5	32¢ (31¢)	37.08%	5.08	1 (sixth, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01CLEPIT-CLE3
Browns to win	37¢ (35¢)	41.16%	4.16	1 (sixth; half the tie credited; ask 36 to 37 since the morning)	KXNFLGAME-26NOV01CLEPIT-CLE
Cowboys by over 10.5	38¢ (37¢)	41.94%	3.94	1 (seventh; ask 39 to 38)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01ARIDAL-DAL11
Cowboys by over 7.5	46¢ (45¢)	49.71%	3.71	1 (seventh; ask 47 to 46 since the morning)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01ARIDAL-DAL8
Jets by over 6.5	30¢ (29¢)	33.70%	3.70	1 (seventh; ask 31 to 30 since the morning)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LVNYJ-NYJ7
Cowboys by over 9.5	42¢ (41¢)	45.29%	3.29	1 (seventh; ask 43 to 42)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01ARIDAL-DAL10
Chiefs by over 5.5	33¢ (32¢)	36.10%	3.10	2 (seventh, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01KCDEN-KC6
Jets by over 4.5	36¢ (35¢)	39.02%	3.02	1 (seventh; ask 37 to 36)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LVNYJ-NYJ5
Jets by over 5.5	34¢ (32¢)	36.96%	2.96	1 (seventh, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LVNYJ-NYJ6
Eagles-Commanders over 32.5	74¢ (73¢)	76.95%	2.95	1 (seventh; ask 75 to 74)	KXNFLTOTAL-26NOV01PHIWAS-33
Jets by over 3.5	39¢ (38¢)	41.93%	2.93	1 (seventh, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LVNYJ-NYJ4
Lions by over 6.5	39¢ (38¢)	41.91%	2.91	1 (seventh, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01MINDET-DET7
Lions by over 9.5	29¢ (28¢)	31.86%	2.86	2 (seventh; ask 28 to 29)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01MINDET-DET10
Bills by over 5.5	41¢ (40¢)	43.69%	2.69	1 (sixth; ask 42 to 41 since the morning, an ask clear)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01BALBUF-BUF6
Chiefs by over 3.5	39¢ (38¢)	41.65%	2.65	2 (seventh; ask 38 to 39)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01KCDEN-KC4
Rams by over 7.5	44¢ (43¢)	46.62%	2.62	1 (seventh, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01LACLAR-LAR8
Lions by over 4.5	45¢ (43¢)	47.60%	2.60	1 (seventh, unchanged ask)	KXNFLSPREAD-26NOV01MINDET-DET5

Seventeen of the Thursday afternoon page's twenty unsettled notes fell, and the three Packers notes settled instead. The runs killed the Raiders ladder, the Raiders 5.5 going from six clears in a row at 5.38 under to 0.14, and the six Patriots-Dolphins overs at unchanged asks; the asks killed the Falcons 4.5 and 3.5 on two-cent rises, the Chiefs 4.5 on one, where the run still reads 3.31 at the old price, and the Bills 4.5, where the run came toward it; the run alone killed the Bills 6.5 at an unchanged 38; the Bills 7.5 and the Steelers 9.5 fell on a little of both. The three that held are the three with two clears in a row, the Chiefs 5.5 and 3.5 and the Lions 9.5, and each sits in a game that already holds a row, so none can list; every one-clear note from Thursday afternoon got its second run, the Packers rungs included, and three of nineteen cleared again, which puts the pooled second-run rate at twenty of seventy-nine. Of the fourteen one-clear notes new this morning, eleven clear on the run alone at Thursday afternoon's ask, and three needed the ask cut with the run, the Cowboys 9.5, the Jets 4.5 and the Eagles-Commanders over 32.5; the afternoon added a fifteenth on the ask alone, the Bills 5.5 at 41 after 42, 2.69 under on a run that read it 1.69 under this morning, and widened two others the same way, the Cowboys 7.5 to 3.71 at 46 and the Jets 6.5 to 3.70 at 30. The Browns 1.5 at 33 is the note to read: 5.83 under, 3.83 after the fee, the clearest sign on the board that the Sims and the market split on Pittsburgh from both ends, with the listed Steelers 7.5 asking 35 against a 33.56 read in the same game, and it cannot list while the Steelers row holds the slot.

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The Ledger

The ledger carries minus $0.82 on $14.82 settled across the rows listed since Tuesday, October 6, before fees, on one theoretical contract per row at the ask that listed it, a Kalshi contract paying $1.00 when it settles your way, and $2.56 open across eight rows, the Bills 9.5 at 28, the Raiders 4.5 at 32, the Steelers 7.5 at 34, the Buccaneers 6.5 at 32, the Lions 7.5 at 33, the Chiefs 6.5 at 30, the Patriots 10.5 at 37 and the Commanders 10.5 at 30, each listed at that ask and marked at this afternoon's asks. Five rows ask over their listing, the Commanders 10.5 by three at 33 after four at 34 this morning, the Buccaneers 6.5 by two at 34, and the Steelers 7.5, Chiefs 6.5 and Patriots 10.5 by a cent each; the Bills, Raiders and Lions rows sit where they listed. The open mark is plus eight cents at the asks after nine this morning, and minus four at the bids after two, the Commanders bid down to 32 and the Patriots bid down to 36. Nothing has settled since Monday night, when the Cowboys 7.5 at 37 paid 63 cents and closed week 7's eight rows at four for eight, plus $1.04 on $2.96; the eight open rows settle Sunday, and the Packers notes that paid Thursday night were never rows, since the second run missed them, so nothing from Lambeau enters this count. The hockey favorites are a separate count: Thursday's eleven, graded at the noon asks the Thursday pages listed, went seven for eleven, plus 45 cents on $6.55, and open a new week after the Thursday-to-Wednesday week closed twenty-seven for forty-six, plus $0.25 on $26.75.

Thursday Night: Packers 27-19, and Three Notes That Paid Without a Row

Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19 at Lambeau Field, by ESPN's scoreboard: 6, 14, 7 and 0 by quarter for the Packers, 3, 7, 3 and 6 for the Panthers, Green Bay to 5-3 and Carolina to 3-4. The table is the three Packers rungs the Thursday afternoon page carried as count-one notes, what each asked at 5:20 p.m. and how it settled.

Market	Thu 5:20 p.m. (bid)	Settled	Kalshi row
Packers by over 5.5	44¢ (43¢)	Yes, $1.00	KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT29CARGB-GB6
Packers by over 7.5	35¢ (34¢)	Yes, $1.00	KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT29CARGB-GB8
Packers by over 4.5	47¢ (46¢)	Yes, $1.00	KXNFLSPREAD-26OCT29CARGB-GB5

An eight-point win cleared the 7.5 by half a point, and the three notes would have paid 56, 65 and 53 cents on 44, 35 and 47 before fees. None was a row, because each cleared on one run and the second run missed all three: the Sims ran the game once more before kickoff, at 6:32 p.m. CT, with Green Bay at 61.45 percent outright after 64.12 on the 4:04 p.m. run, and on that run the 7.5 at 35 read 35.71, the 5.5 at 44 read 44.79 and the 4.5 at 47 read 46.98, 0.71 and 0.79 under and 0.02 over, so none of the three still cleared when the game kicked off. Green Bay to win asked 64 at the 5:20 p.m. pull against that run's 61.92 with half the tie, and the game's total, 46 points, settled over 45.5 and under 46.5.

Season Boards: BYU Slips a Cent, Twelve Asks Hold

These rows carry no run and never will on this page. The table is the same thirteen rows the morning page carried, 10:12 a.m. against 12:43 p.m. Friday, with none of these teams playing tonight and eight of them playing Saturday; Ohio State held 82 on a bid that rose from 80 to 81, Notre Dame held 82 on 80, and neither is in the table.

Market	Fri 10:12 a.m. (bid)	Fri 12:43 p.m. (bid)	Kalshi row
Georgia makes the playoff	85¢ (83¢)	85¢ (83¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UGA
Miami makes the playoff	94¢ (93¢)	94¢ (93¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MIA
Indiana makes the playoff	89¢ (87¢)	89¢ (88¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IND
BYU makes the playoff	39¢ (38¢)	38¢ (37¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-BYU
UCLA makes the playoff	59¢ (57¢)	59¢ (58¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UCLA
LSU makes the playoff	56¢ (54¢)	56¢ (54¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-LSU
Utah makes the playoff	59¢ (57¢)	59¢ (58¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UTAH
Alabama makes the playoff	65¢ (63¢)	65¢ (63¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-ALA
Tennessee makes the playoff	25¢ (22¢)	25¢ (23¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TENN
Kentucky makes the playoff	36¢ (35¢)	36¢ (34¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UK
Iowa makes the playoff	7¢ (6¢)	7¢ (6¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IOWA
Texas Tech makes the playoff	24¢ (23¢)	24¢ (23¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-TTU
SMU makes the playoff	16¢ (15¢)	16¢ (15¢)	KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-SMU

BYU is the one ask in the table that moved, 39 to 38 on a bid that went 38 to 37, and the Cougars host Arizona State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Utah is still the row to watch, because it has the hardest game on the Saturday card: the ask held 59 and the bid rose again, 56 Thursday afternoon, 57 this morning, 58 now, and the 7-0 Utes are at 5-2 Cincinnati on Saturday at 3:45 p.m. ET by ESPN's schedule, with Georgia against Florida at 3:30, UCLA hosting Nevada at 4:15, Miami at North Carolina at 7:30, and Iowa, Texas Tech and SMU all at noon; the Sunday page will carry the results. Kentucky gave back the cent of bid it gained overnight, 35 to 34 under an unchanged 36, so the ask sits two over the bid after one this morning. Indiana, UCLA and Tennessee each gained a cent of bid under an unchanged ask, and Georgia held 85 on 83 for a fourth pull since Wednesday afternoon's drop from 91, a price that has stopped moving.

Hockey: Seven of Eleven Paid, and Three Favorites Tonight

Thursday's eleven favorites graded at the noon asks the Thursday pages listed them at and went seven for eleven: Tampa Bay at 69 beat Winnipeg 6-4, Utah at 55 won 4-3 in overtime in Pittsburgh, Carolina at 71 beat Columbus 3-2, Detroit at 59 beat Chicago 4-1, St. Louis at 51 beat Boston 4-1, Buffalo at 58 won 7-6 in Anaheim and San Jose at 62 beat Vancouver 3-2, while Nashville at 51 lost the Capitals-Predators coin flip 4-3, Dallas at 61 lost 5-2 to Montreal, Minnesota at 65 lost 4-3 to the Islanders in overtime and Ottawa at 53 lost 6-5 in Los Angeles in overtime. The seven winners paid $2.75 and the four losers cost $2.30, plus 45 cents on $6.55 staked before fees, with two of the four losses in overtime and the two coin flips splitting, St. Louis paying and Nashville not. The table is tonight's three games, every one pregame at the pull, with ESPN's records, the favorite by the higher ask, the 10:12 a.m. ask the morning page listed it at, which is the ask it grades at on tomorrow's page, and the ask now.

Game (ET)	Favorite	Graded at, 10:12 a.m. (bid)	Price now (bid)	Other side	Kalshi row
New Jersey at Vegas, 6:00	Vegas (9-4-1)	52¢ (51¢)	51¢ (50¢)	New Jersey (8-5-0) 49¢	KXNHLGAME-26OCT30NJVGK
Winnipeg at Florida, 7:00	Florida (7-4-2)	68¢ (67¢)	68¢ (67¢)	Winnipeg (4-6-3) 34¢	KXNHLGAME-26OCT30WPGFLA
Seattle at Calgary, 8:00	Seattle (8-4-1)	52¢ (51¢)	52¢ (51¢)	Calgary (5-7-0) 49¢	KXNHLGAME-26OCT30SEACGY

Three contracts on the favorites stake $1.72 at the morning asks they grade at and would cost $1.71 now, since Vegas slipped a cent to 51 on a 50-cent bid while New Jersey held 49, the closest the three get to a dead heat, and Calgary fell a cent to 49 under an unchanged Seattle 52. Florida held 68, a cent over Thursday afternoon, over a Winnipeg side playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing 6-4 in Tampa, the Golden Knights are at T-Mobile Arena over an 8-5-0 New Jersey side, and the Kraken are at the Saddledome over a 5-7-0 Calgary side. Saturday's board has ten games at the pull and moved more than tonight's did: Colorado at 76 over Calgary, now 25 after 26, the Flames on the second night of their own back-to-back, is still the most expensive favorite; Boston fell two cents to 67 over Chicago in a 1:00 start, Toronto fell three to 59 in Vancouver, Edmonton rose two to 55 at the Islanders and Tampa Bay a cent to 62 in Nashville, with Dallas at 64 over Columbus and Montreal at 59 over Pittsburgh unchanged, Ottawa at 56 in San Jose and Buffalo at 53 in Los Angeles down a cent each, and Blues at Red Wings no longer a dead heat, St. Louis at 51 on a 50-cent bid and Detroit at 50 on 49.

How I Pick

Every row on this page is a price against a second price, and the second price is the Stokastic Sims. The rule is the same every day: a Yes contract with an ask between 28 and 96 cents at the pull that lists it, at least 2.5 points under the run before the fee on two consecutive runs that agree on the direction, and one row per game. The row is the rung with the largest gap among the rungs that qualify. Where the largest gap and the headline contract are different contracts, the page takes the largest gap and names the headline contract beside it, and where a wider rung has only one clear, the page lists the rung with two and names the wider one, which is how the Steelers 7.5 took its row at noon Thursday over the 6.5. Consecutive means consecutive, and a run means a run: a rung that clears, misses, then clears again starts over at one, which is where the Lions 7.5 and the Rams 7.5 sit this afternoon, and a rung that misses and then clears on the same run because its ask fell is an ask clear that counts one. Before rounding means before rounding: a rung that reads 2.49 under does not clear and one that reads 2.50 does, and the Packers 4.5 at 47 read 46.98 on its last pregame run, two hundredths over, a miss by two hundredths. A Kalshi game contract pays 50 cents on a tie, so a side's read on this page is its outright wins plus half the ties from the run; the Browns to win at 37 reads 41.16 that way, not the 41.51 a reader would get by handing Cleveland every tie, and every winner read on this edition is counted the same way. A listed row keeps its slot until its game settles, whatever later runs or prices say, which is why the Raiders 4.5 stays a row after its first miss and the Browns 1.5 cannot list behind the Steelers 7.5, and the 28-cent floor applies at the pull that lists a rung, which is why the Bills 9.5 stood at a 27-cent ask on Thursday. A note that pays without ever listing, as the three Packers rungs did after a second run missed them, pays nothing in the ledger, because it was never a row. The fee is Kalshi's, seven percent of price times one minus price per contract, rounded up to the cent. When this page says a rung reads so many points under, it means the ask sits that many points under the run; when it says the ask sits over the run, the market thinks more of that side than the Sims do.

Prices come from Kalshi's public API, pulled at 12:43 p.m. ET on October 30, 2026, with the Friday morning page's prices from the 10:12 a.m. ET pull the same day, the Thursday afternoon page's from the 5:20 p.m. ET pull, the Thursday noon page's from 12:38 p.m. ET, both October 29, and the Wednesday pages' from 3:37 p.m., 1:09 p.m. and 8:47 a.m. ET, October 28. Settlements are Kalshi's market results at the same pull. Sims numbers are the Stokastic Sims runs, 10,000 games per matchup, labeled by the time each run was created in Central time: no week 8 game has a run newer than the one the Friday morning page read, so every read here is that run's, created 6:32 p.m. Thursday for Panthers at Packers, before kickoff, 8:57 p.m. for Cardinals at Cowboys, 9:00 for Falcons at Buccaneers, 9:02 for Ravens at Bills, 9:06 for Browns at Steelers, 9:10 for Colts at Jaguars, 9:13 for Raiders at Jets, 9:18 for Vikings at Lions, 9:21 for Titans at Bengals, 9:24 for Chargers at Rams, 9:27 for Chiefs at Broncos, 9:30 for Patriots at Dolphins, 9:34 for Eagles at Commanders and 12:21 a.m. Friday for Bears at Seahawks. Each game carries only its newest run, so each game's earlier runs are carried from the earlier pages, and a run counts as sixth or seventh by the runs this page has read. The Packers-Panthers score, quarters and records are ESPN's Thursday scoreboard; hockey finals, records, venues and start times are ESPN's Thursday, Friday and Saturday scoreboards.

These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Availability varies by state.

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