Slate: Saturday, Sep 5 · Updated Sep 5, 10:00 a.m. ET · Prices as of September 5, 2026, 9:33 a.m. ET, movers tracked through 9 a.m.
Jump to: The Morning Grade · Pick of the Day · The Gap · Biggest Swings · Resolves Today · New Listings · Full Scoreboard
The Quick Answer
Onslaught was Friday night's story. The contract that pays if the film's Rotten Tomatoes score is above 55 at Monday's stamp was 79¢ on Friday's 9 a.m. candle and 16¢ on Saturday's, most of the drop on one candle at 6 p.m. The panel's latest graded batch is red, down $3.11, because the three US Open matches it priced for Friday all went to the player it was against. There is no Pick of the Day: nothing on the gap screen settles inside a week. The widest disagreement that is still a question is the far rung of the Tesla-SpaceX merger ladder, which jumped nineteen cents overnight while the two nearer rungs barely moved. Saturday's card is the week-two college football slate, and the one game on it with a price is Clemson against LSU.
Every day this page grades the AI panel's latest calls in public, names the widest market-vs-model gap on the sheet, and lists what settles before the close. The URL never changes.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, open to users 18+ in eligible states, and availability varies by state.
Saturday's card as quoted at the 9:33 a.m. ET pull, highest ask first. Three rows were in play at the pull and will have moved.
| Contract | Ask | Bid | Book | Settles (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich beat Schalke (Bundesliga) | 86¢ | 85¢ | $358,696 | 3:30 p.m. stamp |
| Manchester City beat Coventry (Premier League) | 83¢ | 82¢ | $1,452,764 | 1 p.m. stamp |
| LSU beat Clemson (college football) | 78¢ | 77¢ | $273,659 | 10:30 p.m. stamp |
| Bitcoin above $79,500 at 5 p.m. | 75¢ | 74¢ | $136,778 | 5:05 p.m. |
| Gustavo Heide beat Facundo Mena (Challenger, in play) | 60¢ | 59¢ | $303,531 | 10:05 a.m. stamp |
| Valerio Aboian beat Yanaki Milev (Challenger, in play) | 57¢ | 56¢ | $827,368 | 10 a.m. stamp |
| Flavio Cobolli beat Alexander Blockx (US Open, round of 32) | 51¢ | 50¢ | $311,682 | 2 p.m. stamp |
| Atlético beat Athletic Bilbao (La Liga) | 40¢ | 39¢ | $563,223 | 1:15 p.m. stamp |
| Tottenham beat Nottingham Forest (Premier League) | 36¢ | 35¢ | $296,271 | 1 p.m. stamp |
| Dortmund beat Hoffenheim (Bundesliga) | 35¢ | 34¢ | $247,750 | 12:30 p.m. stamp |
| Clemson beat LSU (college football) | 23¢ | 22¢ | $393,828 | 10:30 p.m. stamp |
| Daniel Hooker beat Parnasse (UFC Fight Night) | 20¢ | 19¢ | $1,050,544 | 9:40 p.m. stamp |
| Thriston Lawrence wins the Omega European Masters (in play) | 8¢ | 3¢ | $864,023 | 8 p.m. stamp |
| Boise State beat Oregon (college football) | 6¢ | 5¢ | $637,448 | 6:30 p.m. stamp |
| East Carolina beat Alabama (college football) | 4¢ | 3¢ | $710,686 | 3 p.m. stamp |
The card's deepest book is Manchester City over Coventry, and its second-deepest is an underdog: Daniel Hooker's contract at 19/20¢ has more than a million dollars on it, which on a price that low is mostly the other side being bought. Clemson against LSU is the one football game priced as a question, and the underdog's contract is the deeper of the two. The three in-play tennis rows are quoted where the last game left them, and the golf row is a contract that fell 21 points overnight, which is the story in Biggest Swings.
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The Morning Grade
The panel is a bank of AI models (Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GPT, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, GLM, and DeepSeek) that each put a probability on Kalshi markets without seeing the price. Every call is graded here against the real settlement.
The batch is red. The latest graded batch reads 122 calls, 87 paid and 35 did not at a 73.9¢ average price, a loss of $3.11 on $90.11 staked, down 3.5%. Positions are graded as one theoretical contract per call, bought on the panel's side at the ask. A Kalshi contract pays $1.00 when it settles your way, so a 78¢ Yes risks 78¢ to win 22¢. The profitable-day streak is back to zero.
The US Open board is why. The full panel was asked Thursday about Friday's round of 32, and the three matches that graded overnight all went against it: Alex Michelsen over Daniel Merida, Taylor Townsend over Diana Shnaider, Emma Navarro over Karolina Muchova. Six rows, $3.56 staked, none paid. The shape of the loss was different each time. On Michelsen-Merida the panel was on the underdog, reading Merida at 56.8% against a 40¢ price, and the favorite won. On Townsend-Shnaider it was on the favorite and surer than the price, 67.1% on Shnaider against 60¢, and Townsend won. On Navarro-Muchova it was on the favorite and less sure than the price, 71.1% against 78¢, and Navarro won at 22¢. The three matches that graded Friday afternoon, Kostyuk, Cirstea and Paul, had paid $2.04 between them, so the board's twelve rows on six matches finish $1.52 under water. Both women who beat the panel have Sunday contracts on the listings shelf below.
The single-seat rows were mostly green. The GPT seat faded Real Madrid by more than 2.5 goals at 28¢ and Austin rain at 46¢, and both paid; its New York thermometer, a fade of the 83-84° band at 54¢, was the one that did not. The Gemini seat's two ITF underdogs, Zakaria at 38¢ and Carle at 20¢, lost on a ranking read, and its one fade, Antoni Fabre below his price, paid. The Grok seat's Miami 91-92° band, bought at 63¢, lost.
| Ledger | Calls | Avg price | Staked | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest graded batch | 122 (87 paid, 35 did not) | 73.9¢ | $90.11 | −$3.11 | down 3.5% |
| Full 16-day window | 1,005 | — | $771.56 | −$8.56 | down 1.1% |
The 16-day window is at −$8.56 on $771.56 staked across 1,005 calls. The seat table below is a different and longer book: it runs one contract per seat per call, so its rows do not add up to the batch and are not meant to. Read it as nine separate books measured the same way.
| Seat | Graded calls | Staked | Flat-stake return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet | 712 | $516.46 | up 1.85% |
| Claude Fable | 688 | $513.40 | up 1.67% |
| Grok | 3,119 | $2,403.89 | up 0.38% |
| DeepSeek | 1,611 | $1,179.60 | up 0.37% |
| Claude Opus | 718 | $535.92 | up 0.20% |
| Kimi | 1,604 | $1,210.84 | up 0.18% |
| GLM | 1,601 | $1,193.11 | down 0.01% |
| Gemini | 3,390 | $2,629.21 | down 0.84% |
| GPT | 4,044 | $3,073.37 | down 1.28% |
Claude Sonnet keeps the lead row it took Friday afternoon, and its edge over Claude Fable widened to eighteen hundredths. Every seat on the table fell overnight; the eight seats that sat on the US Open rows took the six losses together, Claude Opus fell the furthest, from up 1.44% to up 0.20%, and GLM slipped to a hundredth under flat. GPT, the deepest book, is still last. This record grades whatever settles fast, temperature bands, rain contracts, Challenger tennis, a Grand Slam round, which is why its average price runs high. The complete history is public on the Model Verdict Scoreboard.
Pick of the Day
No call today. The flagship needs a market settling inside 48 hours where the panel disagrees with the price, and nothing on Saturday's gap screen stamps inside a week: the nearest is the goat-herder wage contract on October 7, and the exchange does not stamp the GPT-6 rungs until November 1. Saturday's card, the college football slate, the European soccer matches, the fight, carries no fresh panel number, and the US Open rows the panel did price are in the grade above. A months-out gap stretched into a Saturday pick would be a worse product than an honest blank.
The Gap
OpenAI releases a model called GPT-6 or greater before September 16. Market: 100¢. Panel: 23.2%, asked Wednesday afternoon, before the model shipped.
OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra on Thursday, so all four release rungs sit at par again and the panel's Wednesday reads are a settled argument waiting for a stamp. The row stays on top because the table sorts by the size of the gap, and it will report as graded when the exchange stamps it. The two-ladder board behind it is GPT-6 release date odds.
| Market | Price now | Panel | Gap | Spread | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 released before Sept. 16 | 100¢ | 23.2% | −76.8 pts | 1¢ | $54,950 |
| California goat-herder wage relief before Oct 1 | 100¢ | 29.4% | −70.6 pts | 1¢ | $633,749 |
| GPT-6 released before Oct. 1 | 100¢ | 32.0% | −68.0 pts | 1¢ | $252,923 |
| Tesla-SpaceX merger agreement before 2028 | 84¢ | 17.0% | −67.0 pts | 6¢ | $15,098 |
| GPT-6 released before Nov. 1 | 100¢ | 38.8% | −61.2 pts | 1¢ | $119,618 |
| More than 3 Central Pacific hurricanes in 2026 | 92¢ | 36.1% | −55.9 pts | 5¢ | $949 |
| GPT-6 released before Jan. 1, 2027 | 100¢ | 46.0% | −54.0 pts | 1¢ | $77,048 |
| Harry Kane, 2026 Ballon d'Or | 66¢ | 17.7% | −48.3 pts | 1¢ | $1,500,636 |
| Tesla-SpaceX merger agreement before May 1, 2027 | 56¢ | 8.8% | −47.2 pts | 4¢ | $75,827 |
| AP calls the House majority before 4 a.m. ET Nov. 4 | 74¢ | 26.9% | −47.1 pts | 5¢ | $987 |
| Tesla-SpaceX merger agreement before April 1, 2027 | 54¢ | 7.6% | −46.4 pts | 2¢ | $54,649 |
| Grand Theft Auto VI wins Game of the Year 2026 | 74¢ | 28.1% | −45.9 pts | 1¢ | $393,787 |
More live boards from the same panel: California goat-herder wage relief odds, the contract at a 100¢ midpoint for an eighth straight print · Tesla-SpaceX merger odds, the before-2028 rung at an 84¢ midpoint · 2026 Ballon d'Or, Harry Kane's contract at 66¢ for a tenth print.
The morning's gap story is the far rung of the Tesla-SpaceX ladder. The contract that pays if a definitive merger agreement is announced before January 1, 2028 was quoted at a 65¢ midpoint at Friday's 5:53 p.m. pull and 84¢ this morning, six cents wide on a $15,098 book, while the before-May-2027 and before-April-2027 rungs sat at 56¢ and 54¢, within two cents of Friday. The sheet carries no driver for the move and a search of Friday's news turns up none, so this page does not name one. The seven-seat panel, asked August 23, is at 17.0% on the far rung and under 10% on the two nearer ones. The lowest seat's case is that back-to-back No settlements on earlier rungs with no visible process movement is the strongest fact on the card; the highest seat answers that a public-public, conflicted, national-security-sensitive deal of this size would need visible process artifacts before a signed announcement. A ladder where the two-year rung moves nineteen cents and the eight-month rungs move two is pricing the same deal at two different speeds, and the far rung is the thin one.
The goat-herder row is at par for an eighth straight print against an eight-seat read of 29.4%. The lowest seat's case still stands: with no vehicle publicly identified after the August 21 floor-amendment deadline, a Yes needs leadership to open a trailer-bill or rule-waiver path in the session's final week, over the labor opposition that stopped earlier bills without a vote. Nothing on the sheet says that has happened, and the exchange stamps it October 7.
The rest of the table is where it was. The Central Pacific hurricane contract is a 92¢ midpoint on a book under a thousand dollars, so the spread is most of the story; it sits on Kalshi hurricane markets. Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or contract has not moved off 66¢ in ten prints against eight seats between 16 and 20. The AP House-call row is 74¢ on a $987 book. Grand Theft Auto VI's Game of the Year contract is back on the table at a 74¢ midpoint against a 28.1% read, with the lowest seat holding that the game's eligibility window is the largest uncertainty on the board.
Biggest Swings
The sheet flagged 18 movers and lists 15; this edition reads twelve. Candles run hourly from 9 a.m. Friday to 9 a.m. Saturday and the screen quotes are from the 9:33 pull; on the in-play rows the last candle and the screen are far apart.
| Market | Path (hourly midpoints) | Now | Expiry stamp (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onslaught Rotten Tomatoes score above 55 | 79¢ → 16¢ | 16¢ midpoint | 10 a.m. Monday |
| Angelica Raggi beat Lopatetska (ITF, in play) | 38¢ → 88¢ | 88¢ on the 9 a.m. candle | In play, 11 a.m. stamp |
| Newcastle beat Bournemouth (Premier League, in play) | 46¢ → 7¢ | 7¢ on the 9 a.m. candle | In play, 10:30 a.m. stamp |
| Newcastle-Bournemouth over 3.5 goals (in play) | 37¢ → 63¢ | 99/100¢ on the screen | In play, 11:30 a.m. stamp |
| Thriston Lawrence wins the Omega European Masters | 27¢ → 6¢ | 3/8¢ on the screen | 8 p.m. today |
| Gustavo Heide beat Facundo Mena (Challenger, in play) | 77¢ → 54¢ | 59/60¢ on the screen | In play, 10:05 a.m. stamp |
| Valerio Aboian beat Yanaki Milev (Challenger, in play) | 61¢ → 41¢ | 56/57¢ on the screen | In play, 10 a.m. stamp |
| Anthropic officially announces an IPO before Oct. 1 | 25¢ → 5¢ | 5¢ midpoint | 10 a.m. April 1, 2027 |
| Best AI at the end of 2026: Claude | 48¢ → 62¢ | 62¢ midpoint | 10 a.m. Dec. 31 |
| Bitcoin above $79,500 at 5 p.m. | 62¢ → 72¢ | 74/75¢ on the screen | 5:05 p.m. today |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the Sept. 16 meeting | 56¢ → 51¢ | 51¢ midpoint | 2:05 p.m. Sept. 16 |
| Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West | 44¢ → 51¢ | 51¢ midpoint | 10 a.m. Jan. 11 |
Onslaught is the sheet's biggest hop, and the why is on the film's own board. The contract pays if the Tomatometer reads above 55 at 10 a.m. Monday. The film opened wide on Friday, and our board page had the score at 56% on 89 reviews by Friday afternoon, one review from the strike, with the above-55 contract at 59¢ on a 4:20 p.m. pull. The contract printed 54¢ on the 5 p.m. candle, 21¢ at 6 p.m., its biggest hop, and sat between 11 and 20¢ overnight on a board that has traded $600,054, $99,492 of it in the last 24 hours. The sheet flags no mechanical signal and the score's Saturday number is not on it, so this page does not print one; what the price says is that the market went from a coin flip to 16¢ on the score holding above 55 through two more days of reviews. The board, with the full ladder and the settlement rule, is Onslaught Rotten Tomatoes odds.
The Newcastle rows are one match in play at the pull. Newcastle's contract against Bournemouth sat at 46 or 47¢ for a day of candles, printed 20¢ at 8 a.m. and 7¢ at 9, while the over-3.5-goals contract went from 40¢ to 63¢ on the 9 a.m. candle and was 99/100¢ on the screen at 9:33. The sheet does not carry the score and this page does not guess it. What the two prices say together is that at least four goals had gone in before the last candle and the market did not think many of them were Newcastle's; the 10:30 stamp will say the rest.
The tennis rows are three matches in play. Raggi's contract against Lopatetska sat near 40¢ for a day of candles and printed 88¢ at 9 a.m., a 52-point candle on a match that has traded $339,060. Heide's contract against Mena fell 23 points on the same candle and had recovered most of it on the screen; Aboian's against Milev fell across two candles and was back above a coin flip at the pull, on the morning's deepest tennis book at $827,368. None of these rows has a reason beyond the score, and on an in-play contract the score is the reason.
The golf row is a contract falling while play is under way. Thriston Lawrence's contract to win the Omega European Masters held between 22 and 29¢ for a day of candles, printed 20¢ at 8 a.m. and 6¢ at 9, and was quoted 3/8¢ on the screen, on $864,023 traded. The sheet lists the fallers on this board and not the leader, so this page does not name one; the standing page is Omega European Masters odds, and the contract stamps at 8 p.m. ET on the sheet.
The Anthropic row went up before it went down, and the second leg has a source. The contract that pays if Anthropic officially announces an IPO before October 1 sat at 25¢ through Friday morning, doubled to 50¢ on the 4 p.m. candle, and was 5¢ by 8 p.m. The 4 p.m. spike has no signal on the sheet. The drop lines up with a Reuters report published Friday evening that the company's prospectus, which had been expected as early as next week, is now not expected until late September, with the offering to be marketed in mid-October at the earliest and completed days before the November midterms. A contract on an announcement before October 1 repriced to a single digit within two hours of that. The board is Anthropic IPO odds.
The Claude row on the best-AI board reversed. After slipping two editions running, the contract on which AI is best at the end of 2026 printed 48¢ on Friday's 9 a.m. candle, was back at 60¢ two candles later, and held near there through the window, 62¢ on Saturday's 9 a.m. candle, on a $10,330,514 book. The sheet flags no mechanical signal, so the only thing this page can say about the reason is that it does not see one. The board is Best AI 2026 odds.
Bitcoin's 5 p.m. rung at $79,500 went from 62¢ to 72¢ across the window, most of it on the 9 a.m. candle, and was 74/75¢ on the screen. The 9:30 fifteen-minute contract set its bar at $79,762.76, so the index was about $260 above the strike at the half hour with seven and a half hours to the stamp. The standing page on the ladder is Kalshi Bitcoin price markets.
The rest of the table is drift. The contract on the funds rate's upper bound staying above 3.75% after the September 16 meeting slipped from 56¢ to 51¢, most of it on Friday's 10 a.m. candle, and held there. The Rams' NFC West contract moved from 44¢ to 51¢ across Friday's midday candles and has sat between 47 and 51¢ since; the board is NFC West odds.
Resolves Today
The sheet carries 52 contracts stamping today or on Sunday's small-hours prints, and Saturday's shape is the week-two college football card, five European soccer matches between 12:30 and 3:30 p.m., a Challenger morning and one US Open round-of-32 match, a UFC main event, a golf contract, a Bitcoin ladder at 5:05, and the approval bands at 1 p.m. The sheet flags no event boards whose event is today.
The football card's money is in the formalities. North Texas's contract against Indiana is the deepest book on the whole sheet, $2,381,299 traded and $1,729,135 of it in the last 24 hours, with no bid and a penny ask; Bryant against Army has $1,248,739 at 1/2¢, East Carolina against Alabama $710,686 at 3/4¢, and Boise State against Oregon $637,448 at 5/6¢. That is the No side being bought at 98 and 99¢ for a Saturday receipt, a trade that risks nearly a dollar to win a cent or two, and the same shape ran the Friday card. Ball State against Ohio State, Texas State against Texas, Tennessee State against Georgia, Furman against Tennessee, New Hampshire against Syracuse and Norfolk State against Old Dominion are all a penny or two on the same side. The one game with a price in it is Clemson against LSU: LSU 77/78¢ on $273,659 and Clemson 22/23¢ on $393,828, the underdog's contract the deeper of the two, stamping 10:30 p.m. Friday's shelf had LSU by more than 10.5 near a coin flip, so the market's read is a two-score LSU win with a live question about the margin. The machines' read on the card is on college football week 2 predictions.
The soccer money is in Manchester. Manchester City at 82/83¢ over Coventry is the deepest book stamping today outside the football formalities, $1,452,764, with Coventry at 5/6¢, which leaves about twelve cents for the draw that neither contract pays. Tottenham at 35/36¢ against Nottingham Forest and Atlético at 39/40¢ against Athletic Bilbao are the two afternoon matches priced closest to a three-way split; Bayern at 85/86¢ against Schalke and Dortmund at 34/35¢ against Hoffenheim are the Bundesliga pair, and the Newcastle-Bournemouth match in the swings table stamps at 10:30. Every soccer contract on the card pays on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a draw pays neither side.
The fight, the golf and the tennis. Daniel Hooker's contract against Parnasse is 19/20¢ on $1,050,544, the deepest book on the card with a real price in it, priced like a moneyline with no draw contract; the standing page is Hooker vs Parnasse Kalshi odds. Thriston Lawrence's Omega European Masters contract is in the swings. Flavio Cobolli against Alexander Blockx at 50/51¢ is the one US Open round-of-32 match on the sheet, stamping 2 p.m., and it pays after a ball has been played; the two Challenger matches and the ITF match in play at the pull stamp between 10 and 11 a.m. and will be settled by the time this page loads.
The 1 p.m. column and the rest. Trump's RealClearPolitics approval bands stamp at 1 p.m.: the exactly-39.9% contract is 61/87¢ on $3,293 and the exactly-39.8% contract is 5/11¢ on $3,354, both opened in the last 24 hours. The weekly Senate-nominations row, at least one nomination sent from August 30 through today, has no bid and a 26¢ ask, with five dollars traded in the last 24 hours. Two first-week album contracts stamp Sunday at 10 a.m. with a 97¢ bid and no ask under par, and the higher Rod Wave rung, above 140,000 units, has no bid and a 3¢ ask. For anyone comparing the exchange's prices against the sportsbook side of the same weekend, the live home run prop odds screen carries the prop market's read on the baseball slate, and the Saturday totals on the listings shelf below are the exchange's version of the same question.
The fine print for today: the two approval contracts stamping at 1 p.m. pay on the RealClearPolitics average being exactly 39.9% or exactly 39.8% at exactly 1:00 p.m. ET, a band one tenth of a point wide read at one minute. The 39.9 contract is quoted 61/87¢, a 26-cent room on a $3,293 book, two sides that have not met on a question with one answer. A reading of 40.0 or 39.7 at 1:00 pays neither contract, and an average that moves at 1:01 does not count.
New Listings
Twenty-five contracts opened since Friday afternoon's shelf, and this is Sunday's shelf: the US Open round of 16 with two of Friday's upset winners on it, Saturday's baseball totals and run lines, a Sunday cricket match, Saturday's thermometers, and a Bitcoin rung for next Friday. Rated on structure only.
- Sunday's US Open round of 16, five contracts. Worth a look as a set, and two are callbacks. Emma Navarro at 50/51¢ against Kalinskaya opened at 11:45 p.m. Friday, hours after she beat Muchova at 22¢ and cost the panel two rows; the market has her at a coin flip now. Taylor Townsend, the other woman who beat the panel, is 18/19¢ against Sabalenka. Tommy Paul, the favorite the panel had right on Friday, is 16/17¢ against Carlos Alcaraz, with the contract on Alcaraz winning by more than 6.5 games at 43/44¢. Daniil Medvedev is 57/58¢ against Tiafoe. All stamp 2 p.m. Sunday and pay after a ball has been played. The board on the men's draw is US Open 2026 men's odds.
- Saturday's baseball totals and run lines. Worth a look for the deepest one. Washington against the Dodgers over 7.5 runs at 45/46¢ is the deepest new contract on the shelf at $161,550, with the Dodgers by more than 1.5 runs at 46/47¢ beside it; Milwaukee-Cincinnati over 8.5 is 55/56¢ with its first-five-innings over 5.5 at 43/44¢; San Francisco against the Mets over 7.5 is 53/54¢ and the first to stamp, at 7:10 p.m.; Tampa Bay-Texas over 6.5 is 53/54¢; St. Louis-Colorado over 10.5 is 52/53¢; and the run lines on Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Seattle sit between 40 and 51¢. A total opens near a coin flip because the number is set to make it one. None is on the standing Kalshi MLB panel-vs-market board.
- Saturday's thermometers. Worth a look for the callback. Los Angeles above 80° is 58/59¢ on $37,287, Chicago below 83° is 29/32¢, and New York in the 81-82° band is 17/19¢; all stamp 3 p.m. Sunday. These are the contracts the single seats get asked about, and the New York bands are where the GPT seat lost 46 cents this batch.
- Bitcoin above $82,000 next Friday at 5 p.m., 23/24¢. Worth a look. Opened Friday afternoon, $30,697 traded, penny wide, stamps 5:05 p.m. September 11. The strike sits about $2,200 above the 9:30 print, and the price gives it one in four across six days.
- South Africa beat Zimbabwe, T20, 80/81¢. Skip. A Sunday match priced as a formality on $5,848, stamping noon Sunday; the only question is the other side, and it is not on the sheet.
- Barrett Pfeiffer eliminated from Big Brother before September 11, 0/1¢. Trap. Opened Friday, $10,583 traded, no bid, a penny ask, stamps 10 a.m. September 11. A contract that lists at a zero bid is a contract the market has answered, and the money on it is the No side being collected.
- The rest of the shelf. Skip. A national gas-price contract above $4.122 at 99/100¢ that has decided, and the smaller run lines.
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How this page works. The prices above come from Kalshi's public API, pulled the morning of September 5, 2026 (quotes as of 9:33 a.m. ET, candles tracked through 9 a.m., sheet compiled 9:33 a.m. ET); the grades come from our public verdict ledger, where every AI-panel call is stored with its ask-time price and graded against the real settlement. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, open to users 18+ in eligible states, and availability varies by state. Event contracts involve risk.
