TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Jacob Misiorowski (61%), Cristopher Sanchez (13%), Chris Sale (10%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
A rookie at 76 cents for the Cy Young is the boldest single price on any award board we cover. The fetched leaderboards back the enthusiasm: Misiorowski's rate numbers lead the league — and the panel's job was to weigh a rookie's workload management and two remaining months against that dominance. Their blend agrees he is the favorite and argues about how big the gap to the field really is.
What The Models Were Given
Each model saw the live NL pitching leaderboards (ERA, strikeouts, wins, WHIP) fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Jacob Misiorowski: market 76¢, AI blend 61% (15 points below the crowd). Claude Opus: "Misiorowski leads NL in both strikeouts (185) and ERA (1.58) by wide margins, but two months of injury/regression risk remain."
Zack Wheeler: market 9¢, AI blend 1.3% (8 points below the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Wheeler absent from all leaderboards (K, ERA, W) in late July makes him an extreme longshot; Cy Young requires top-tier stats." [Editor's note: our leaders card cut each table at eight names and Wheeler's 10 wins sat just below the cut — this premise reflects the card's coverage window, not Wheeler's actual season. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
Cristopher Sanchez: market 9¢, AI blend 13% (4 points above the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Sanchez leads wins, strong ERA/K's, but Misiorowski's dominant ERA/K lead makes him the likelier favorite in a crowded field."
Chase Burns: market 3¢, AI blend 7% (4 points above the crowd). GLM 5.2: "Burns is competitive in ERA (3rd) and wins (T-2nd) but trails Misiorowski significantly in ERA and strikeouts, with two months for regression."
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 76¢ | 61% | 64% | 62% | 55% | 55% | 72% | 58% | 55% | 70% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 9¢ | 13% | — | 12% | 13% | 22% | 11% | 8% | 16% | 12% |
| Chris Sale | 6¢ | 10% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 3% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 9% |
| Paul Skenes | 1¢ | 8% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 25% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 3% |
| Chase Burns | 3¢ | 7% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 4% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 2¢ | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 1.5% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Jesus Luzardo | 1¢ | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| Nolan McLean | 1¢ | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Zack Wheeler | 9¢ | 1.3% | 0.4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Logan Webb | 1¢ | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Freddy Peralta | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Blake Snell | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Aaron Nola | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Roki Sasaki | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hunter Greene | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Strider | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Schwellenbach | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Shota Imanaga | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Bubba Chandler | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Abbott | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Brandon Woodruff | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Eury Perez | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Cade Horton | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| …plus 21 more names, all under 2% blended — every name was scored; the table shows the top of the field |
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Why do the blend percentages sum past 100% on an exclusive award?
Each model scores every candidate independently, so small overshoots accumulate across a large field. The relative order and the gaps matter more than the raw sum; the scoreboard grades each contract on its own settlement.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
Each model saw the live NL pitching leaderboards (ERA, strikeouts, wins, WHIP) fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time.
