College Football Championship Odds: Texas Took Over Late

The Quick Answer

Texas trailed No. 1 Ohio State 23-3 midway through the third quarter on Saturday night, won 24-23 on a 1-yard Hollywood Smothers run with 25 seconds left, and the Kalshi college football championship odds changed favorites for the first time this season. As of 2:55 a.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, Texas is 14 cents bid, 15 asked, and Ohio State has given back the top price it had held or shared since the board listed. Oregon, a 24.5-point favorite at Oklahoma State, lost 39-31 to a team that went 1-11 last year and fell from 11 cents to 3 bid, the largest one-day drop this page has logged on the board. A week ago this page said the market had added LSU's 5.5 cents without taking them from anyone. This week it subtracted: the teams that lost or stumbled gave up nearly twice what the winners collected, and the board's sum fell back to where the eight-model panel found it in August. Which contracts paid for Texas, why the new favorite's bid is thinner than its price, and how a panel that scored Oregon second looks after Stillwater are below, with the full 50-team board and every seat's number.

The Favorite Changed With 25 Seconds Left

Start with the game, because the market did. Ohio State kicked a field goal on its first possession, added an 8-yard Ja'Kobi Jackson run, and led 10-0 after a quarter in front of 105,044 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas managed a 37-yard field goal in the second quarter and nothing else before the half. Connor Hawkins added a 30-yarder with 1:41 left to make it 13-3, and Julian Sayin found Jeremiah Smith for a 19-yard touchdown with 10 seconds left in the half to make it 20-3. A 48-yard Hawkins field goal with 8:09 left in the third made it 23-3. Then Texas scored 21 unanswered: a 3-yard Ryan Wingo touchdown catch from Arch Manning 41 seconds into the fourth, a 1-yard Smothers run with 7:14 to play, and a second 1-yard Smothers run with 25 seconds left. Manning finished 23 of 37 for 195 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Smothers carried 21 times for 74 yards and both scores. Ohio State outgained Texas 372 to 336 and Smith caught eight passes for 164 yards, but Texas converted 9 of 16 third downs, held the ball for 31 and a half minutes, and won a game the sportsbooks had priced as a near toss-up: DraftKings closed it Texas by 2.5.

Now the price history, because the market's read of this game started before it kicked off. At 6:54 p.m. ET, 36 minutes before kickoff, one buyer took 271,011 Texas contracts at 11 cents in 11 fills, 184,288 of them in a single print. That is the largest single order at a two-sided price this page has logged, bigger than the 100,000-contract Ohio State order at 13 cents that held that title a week ago. Texas printed 12 cents for the first time Saturday at 6:57 p.m., three minutes later, and stayed there into the game.

Then the game went Ohio State's way and the price history followed it. At 8:19 p.m., with the Buckeyes ahead early, one buyer took 78,173 Ohio State contracts at 13 cents in 27 fills. Fourteen cents printed at 8:21 p.m. and 15 at 9:16. Two minutes later, at 9:18, Ohio State printed 16 and then 17, a level this page had not logged for the Buckeyes before, in a game it led 20-3 at halftime and 23-3 midway through the third quarter. About 40,600 contracts changed hands at 17. On the other side Texas printed 9 cents at 9:50 p.m. and 8 cents at 11:00 p.m. Sellers took the bid on roughly 17,000 Texas contracts during the 9 o'clock hour alone.

The reversal has a timestamp. At 11:10:33 p.m. one buyer took 191,601 Texas contracts at 11 and 12 cents in 23 fills, 100,000 of them in one print. Thirteen cents printed at 11:11, 14 and 15 at 11:21, and 16 at 11:39 p.m. Ohio State went the other way on the same clock: 11 cents at 11:02, 10 cents at 11:11. By midnight Texas had traded 618,923 contracts on the day, the busiest day this page has logged for any contract on the board, ahead of the 351,451 SMU contracts that traded on September 8, 350,000 of them in one penny sweep, and the 344,910 LSU traded on the night it doubled, and 94 percent of it was a buyer taking the price. Just after midnight one seller put 29,750 contracts through the book at 13 and 14 cents in five fills, and the price shrugged: Texas closed the midnight hour at 16 and was 15 when the price history was pulled at 2:49 a.m.

Fifteen cents on a contract that pays a dollar reads as about one chance in seven, before the exchange's spread. Add the midpoint of all 50 contracts and you get 117 cents rather than 100, so Texas's 14.5-cent midpoint rescales to about 12.4 percent of the board. Eight AI models, scoring this board price-blind on August 22, put Texas at 8.4 percent, and every seat landed between 8.0 and 9.0. That four-point gap is wider than any gap on the board was on August 22, and it is the mirror image of the panel's Ohio State gap: there the panel is above the market, here it is below, and in both cases the market is paying for what it saw on Saturday while the panel paid for the roster.

What Saturday proved is narrower than the price. Texas beat the consensus No. 1 with Ohio State's starting quarterback on the field, at home, after trailing by 20, and that is the resume line a win over Texas State was never going to provide. But the two big orders on the price history bought two different games. The 271,011 contracts taken at 11 cents before kickoff spent the whole 9 o'clock hour underwater, with Texas down 17 and then 20 and the sellers in charge of the book. The 191,601 taken at 11 and 12 at 11:10 p.m. bought the final score, seconds after it went final, and everything above 12 was printed by smaller buyers chasing it. The first order paid for a roster; the second paid for a result; only the second one is up. Texas hosts UTSA on September 19 and then goes to Tennessee on September 26, and Knoxville decides whether 14 cents was a price or a mood.

What Oregon's Loss Cost

The other half of the board's story happened six hours earlier and 400 miles north. Oregon, ranked sixth, went to Stillwater as a 24.5-point favorite against an Oklahoma State team that finished 1-11 last season, and lost 39-31. Devon Jackson's 96-yard interception return gave the Ducks a 7-3 lead in the first quarter and it was the last time Oregon led until Evan Stewart's 38-yard touchdown catch from Dante Moore made it 31-30 nine seconds into the fourth. Drew Mestemaker answered with a 10-yard run, Sam Keltner kicked his fourth field goal with 3:11 to play, and Oklahoma State finished with 554 yards of offense to Oregon's 281. Moore went 14 of 29 for 191 yards. Oregon had 12 first downs and held the ball for 23 minutes.

The contract read the game in real time. From 1:17 p.m., 13 minutes before kickoff, every Oregon print was a seller hitting the 10-cent bid, and at 2:42 p.m. one seller put 26,529 contracts through that bid in eight fills. Nine cents printed at 2:48, 8 at 2:59, 7 at 3:27, 6 at 4:05, 5 at 4:32, 4 at 5:01, 3 at 5:10 and 2 cents at 5:14 p.m. Over the afternoon and evening about 221,000 Oregon contracts traded, and the seller was the aggressor on two-thirds of them. The buyers who showed up did so late and low: 22,957 contracts taken at 4 cents at 5:36 p.m., another 22,427 at 4 and 5 cents just before midnight. Oregon closed the night at 4 and sits at 3 bid, 4 asked, with 22,139 contracts bid at 3 and 91,016 offered at 4.

Eleven cents to 3 is the largest one-day move this page has logged in either direction since the August 22 panel run, and what it prices deserves a careful reading. Oregon is not eliminated. The 12-team era was built for one-loss teams, and Oregon's contract to reach the playoff field still trades at 39 cents bid, 41 asked on the playoff qualifiers board. What the title contract says is that a one-loss Oregon has to get back into the field, most likely as an at-large, and then win three or four playoff games, and the crowd will not pay more than a nickel for that path a week after paying 10.

The panel is where this loss lands hardest. Eight models scored Oregon at 10.5 percent on August 22, second on the whole board, and every seat put it between 10.0 and 11.6. Five of the eight named a quarterback injury at Ohio State or Oregon as the single largest risk to their board. The risk they named was an injury; the loss came with the quarterback on the field. Oregon's road back runs through Los Angeles on September 26 and Columbus on November 7. Against a 3.0 percent rescaled market price, Oregon is now the widest gap on all 50 contracts at 7.5 points, wider than LSU's 6.4 was a week ago, and it is a gap the panel cannot close by being right about the roster. The verdict was scored price-blind and gets graded as written.

Oklahoma's row moved the same afternoon for the same reason. The Sooners, ranked 11th, lost 17-10 at Michigan at noon, with Bryce Underwood running 38 yards for the game's first touchdown and John Mateer throwing for 189 yards and an interception. Oklahoma printed 3 cents at 12:56 p.m., 2 cents at 1:47, took a 47,484-contract seller at 2 cents at 3:14 p.m. and printed a penny at 3:32. It is 1 bid, 2 asked, down from 3 and 4, with 1,960 contracts bid at a penny and 367,160 offered at 2. A contract that carries the second-most open interest on the board, about 2.25 million contracts, is now a penny team.

Who Paid For It

On a tight board, a move up should come with money leaving other teams, because at most one of these 50 contracts pays. A week ago this board did not behave that cleanly: LSU took 5.5 cents and the rest of the board, net, gave back nothing, so the sum of midpoints rose from 117.5 to 123. This week it behaved exactly that cleanly, and then some.

Since the September 6 read, five contracts moved up by the midpoint: Texas by 3 cents, Miami by 1.5, and Indiana, Georgia and Michigan by a cent each. Five moved down: Oregon by 6, LSU by 2.5, Ohio State and Oklahoma by 2 each, and Texas Tech by 1. Add it up and the board gained 7.5 cents and gave back 13.5, and the sum of midpoints fell from 123 to 117, which is within half a cent of where it stood on August 22 when the panel scored it. Forty of the 50 rows did not move at all. The week's whole story is ten rows.

The winners' moves were quieter than Texas's and worth reading for what they cost. Miami beat Florida A&M 77-7 on Thursday night, and during that game, at 9:23 p.m., one buyer took 60,000 Miami contracts at 10 cents in 11 fills; another 42,789 went at 11 cents on Friday afternoon. Miami is 10 bid, 12 asked, up from 9 and 10, with a 10-cent bid that is 50,921 contracts deep, and it has the most open interest of any contract in the top six. Indiana beat Howard 55-0 and took a 42,789-contract buyer at 11 cents at 5:08 p.m. Saturday; it is 10 bid, 11 asked, up a cent, and now shares Ohio State's midpoint. Georgia beat Western Kentucky 70-20 and went from 8 and 9 to 9 and 10, with 21,936 bought at 9 cents at 10:09 a.m., before kickoff. Notre Dame beat Rice 52-0 and did not move by the midpoint, though at 5:12 p.m. one buyer took 98,649 Irish contracts at 12 cents in eight fills, the largest order of the weekend on any contract but Texas's and Alabama's, and the price still closed at 11 bid, 13 asked.

Then there is Michigan, which a week ago was the strangest contract on the board and this week is the one the panel would most like to claim. Michigan beat 11th-ranked Oklahoma 17-10 in front of 111,240 at Michigan Stadium, Underwood ran 18 times for 87 yards and a touchdown, and the Wolverines did not turn the ball over. The contract, which had been sold through the penny bid on 144,790 contracts during a 13-12 win over Western Michigan the week before, went from 1 bid, 2 asked to 2 bid, 3 asked on about 58,000 contracts Saturday, nearly all of it a buyer taking the price. The 2-cent bid is 99,622 contracts deep. The panel had Michigan at 1.5 percent in August and cut it during the revision round specifically because Kyle Whittingham's staff was in its first year. Two games in, that staff has an escape and a ranked win, and the market has moved a cent.

The Board

Every listed program, with Kalshi's bid and ask, the change in the midpoint since September 6, and the eight-model panel's blended number from August 22. Prices as of Sunday, September 13, 2026, 2:55 a.m. ET, with every Saturday game final. AP ranks are from the September 7 poll, the last one published before this weekend's games; a new poll lands Sunday afternoon. Records are 2025 results including the postseason. The panel column is frozen on purpose: it was scored price-blind on August 22 and gets graded as written.

Team	2025	Kalshi bid / ask	Since Sept 6	Panel (Aug 22)
Texas (AP 4)	10-3	14¢ / 15¢	+3¢	8.4%
Notre Dame (AP 3)	10-2	11¢ / 13¢	unch.	7.1%
Miami (FL) (AP 7)	13-3	10¢ / 12¢	+1.5¢	4.9%
Ohio St. (AP 1)	12-2	10¢ / 11¢	−2¢	13.9%
Indiana (AP 5)	16-0	10¢ / 11¢	+1¢	6.0%
Georgia (AP 2)	12-2	9¢ / 10¢	+1¢	10.3%
LSU (AP 8)	7-6	8¢ / 9¢	−2.5¢	2.5%
Oregon (AP 6)	13-2	3¢ / 4¢	−6¢	10.5%
Texas A&M (AP 10)	11-2	2¢ / 3¢	unch.	4.3%
Alabama (AP 12)	11-4	2¢ / 3¢	unch.	3.2%
Ole Miss (AP 9)	13-2	2¢ / 3¢	unch.	3.0%
Texas Tech (AP 13)	12-2	2¢ / 3¢	−1¢	2.1%
USC (AP 14)	9-4	2¢ / 3¢	unch.	1.7%
Michigan	9-4	2¢ / 3¢	+1¢	1.5%
Oklahoma (AP 11)	10-3	1¢ / 2¢	−2¢	3.0%
Tennessee (AP 18)	8-5	1¢ / 2¢	unch.	1.3%
Penn St. (AP 16)	7-6	1¢ / 2¢	unch.	1.1%
Florida	4-8	1¢ / 2¢	unch.	0.4%
BYU (AP 15)	12-2	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	1.5%
Washington (AP 19)	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	1.1%
Utah (AP 20)	11-2	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	1.0%
Clemson	7-6	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.9%
SMU (AP 17)	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.9%
Iowa (AP 21)	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.7%
Houston (AP 22)	10-3	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.6%
Louisville (AP 24)	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.6%
Missouri (AP 23)	8-5	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.6%
TCU	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.4%
Illinois	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.4%
Arizona	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.4%
Pittsburgh	8-5	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.3%
Virginia (AP 25)	11-3	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.3%
South Carolina	4-8	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.3%
Vanderbilt	10-3	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.3%
Georgia Tech	9-4	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.3%
Auburn	5-7	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.3%
North Carolina St.	8-5	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Florida St.	5-7	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
James Madison	12-2	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
California	7-6	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Baylor	5-7	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Kansas St.	6-6	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Kentucky	5-7	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
North Texas	12-2	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Virginia Tech	3-9	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Tulane	11-3	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Arizona St.	8-5	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.2%
Miami (OH)	7-7	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.1%
Oklahoma St.	1-11	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.1%
Arkansas	2-10	0¢ / 1¢	unch.	0.1%

The row to sit with is Oregon against LSU, because it is last week's row turned upside down. A week ago a 7-6 team that had played one game carried a bid a cent above a 13-2 team that had also played one game, and this page called it the strangest price on the board. Tonight the 13-2 team is a 3-cent contract and the 7-6 team is still 8, and both moved the same direction on the same Saturday for different reasons: Oregon lost, and LSU drifted to 8 before it kicked off, then won 45-14 while throwing three interceptions. Thirty-two of the 50 rows still show no bid and a 1-cent ask, the same 32 as August 22, and on those rows there is a listing but not a price. Oklahoma State, which just beat the panel's second choice, is still one of them: no bid, a penny asked. New to how these markets settle? Our guide to college football on Kalshi walks through each market family.

The board keeps getting deeper. Across all 50 contracts the screen showed about 31.0 million contracts of lifetime volume with roughly 26.4 million still open, up from 25.8 million and 22.9 million a week ago and from 14.7 million and 12.9 million on August 22. LSU still holds the most open interest of any team, about 2.71 million contracts, and Oklahoma is second at about 2.25 million. Between them, the two contracts with the most open positions are an 8-cent team and a 1-cent team.

Where The Book Is Thinnest

The headline says Texas is a 14-cent team. The order book says something narrower, and it is the same thing it said about LSU a week ago. At 2:55 a.m. Sunday the highest Texas bid was 14 cents for 2,765 contracts. Behind it sat 70,587 contracts at 13 cents and 27,760 at 12. On the other side, sellers had 725 contracts offered at 15 cents, then 130,128 at 16 and 52,233 at 17. Anyone who wanted to sell the new favorite at the price everyone is quoting could do it for 2,765 contracts; after that the price was 13, where the real bid lives. Anyone who wanted to buy at 15 could take 725 and then had to pay 16. The 14 is where the bid stops. The 13 and the 16 are where the money is.

That is the shape a contract takes when one side of it was built in an hour. The 191,601-contract buyer at 11:10 p.m. cleared out every offer up to 12 and the smaller buyers behind it walked the print to 16 on a few thousand contracts at a time; the sellers who had been offering Texas at 12 all week were gone, and the ones who replaced them set up at 16. A move that big, that fast, leaves a gap where the two-sided market used to be, and the gap is what a 14-cent bid that is 2,765 contracts deep looks like.

LSU is the other book that moved, and it moved the way this page said it could not. A week ago the sellers were stacked at 12 cents, 144,742 contracts of them, and would not budge while buyers refilled a 10-cent bid a few thousand at a time. This week the sellers came down. LSU's best offer is 9 cents, with 114,693 contracts at that price, 89,904 at 10, 263,891 at 11 and 205,272 at 12. The 8-cent bid is 6,129 contracts deep. The 8 first printed at 4:49 p.m. Saturday, nearly three hours before LSU kicked off against Louisiana Tech, and after a night in which Sam Leavitt threw for 344 yards and three interceptions, one of them returned 100 yards for a Bulldogs touchdown, the contract closed at 8 with sellers and buyers almost even on the day. The 10 cents that looked like a mood a week ago has become an 8 that looks like a price, and the sellers who would not meet it at 12 now offer it at 9.

Compare the contracts the market is actually willing to defend. The deepest bid on the whole board above a penny now belongs to Alabama, which has 417,009 contracts bid at 2 cents after a 45-17 win at Kentucky and a single 100,000-contract buyer at 3 cents at 7:04 p.m. Saturday. Texas Tech held that title a week ago with 503,055 contracts bid at 3 cents; it beat Oregon State 35-24, took a 71,278-contract seller at 3 cents at 10:29 p.m., and its 3-cent bid is gone. It is 2 bid, 3 asked, with 2,663 contracts at the bid. Among the contenders priced above a nickel, Indiana's 9-cent bid is 106,697 contracts deep, still the deepest of that group, with 3,210 more at 10. Miami has 50,921 at 10. Georgia has 28,967 at 9. Ohio State, the favorite until Saturday night, has 8,492 contracts bid at 10 and 215,004 offered at 12. Notre Dame has 2,834 contracts bid at 11 and 531,884 offered at 13, more than double the 243,047 that sat there a week ago: the crowd's willingness to sell the Irish at 13 has doubled in a week in which the Irish won 52-0 and did not move. Against all of that, Texas's 14 is the thinnest number at the top of the board, and it belongs to the favorite.

If you would rather price Texas one Saturday at a time than for January, the sportsbook side of the question is on the live odds screen, where you can shop the number across every major book, and our free expert picks today cover the college card each week.

Every Seat's Number

The same board with all eight seats shown, as they scored it on August 22. The de-vigged column rescales that day's market midpoints so they add to 100, which is the fair way to compare a price against a probability. The blend is the median of the eight seats after a revision round. Live prices are in the board above.

Outcome	Kalshi (Aug 22)	De-vigged (Aug 22)	Panel	ChatGPT	Claude Fable	Claude Opus	Claude Sonnet	Gemini Pro	GLM	Kimi	DeepSeek
Ohio St.	12.5¢	10.6%	13.9%	14.0%	13.8%	13.7%	15.9%	14.5%	13.8%	13.0%	14.8%
Oregon	10.5¢	8.9%	10.5%	10.2%	10.3%	10.7%	10.9%	11.0%	10.2%	10.0%	11.6%
Georgia	9.5¢	8.1%	10.3%	10.0%	10.3%	10.2%	10.9%	11.5%	10.2%	10.0%	11.6%
Texas	11.5¢	9.8%	8.4%	8.2%	8.4%	8.2%	8.5%	9.0%	8.5%	8.0%	8.5%
Notre Dame	12.5¢	10.6%	7.1%	6.8%	6.9%	7.2%	7.5%	6.5%	7.1%	7.0%	7.4%
Indiana	8.5¢	7.2%	6.0%	6.1%	6.4%	6.2%	6.0%	5.5%	4.9%	6.0%	5.8%
Miami (FL)	7.5¢	6.4%	4.9%	4.9%	4.9%	5.2%	5.0%	4.5%	4.5%	5.0%	4.8%
Texas A&M	3.5¢	3.0%	4.3%	4.2%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.2%
Alabama	3.5¢	3.0%	3.2%	2.8%	3.4%	3.5%	2.8%	4.0%	2.7%	3.0%	3.7%
Oklahoma	2.5¢	2.1%	3.0%	3.3%	2.9%	3.3%	3.0%	3.5%	1.5%	3.0%	2.1%
Ole Miss	2.0¢	1.7%	3.0%	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%	2.5%	4.0%	3.5%	3.2%
LSU	5.5¢	4.7%	2.5%	2.2%	2.9%	2.6%	2.5%	2.5%	2.7%	2.5%	2.6%
Texas Tech	3.5¢	3.0%	2.1%	1.9%	2.5%	2.8%	2.3%	2.0%	0.9%	2.5%	1.6%
USC	1.5¢	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	2.0%	2.2%	1.8%	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%	1.1%
BYU	0.5¢	0.4%	1.5%	1.7%	1.8%	1.6%	1.6%	1.5%	1.0%	1.5%	0.8%
Michigan	2.5¢	2.1%	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	2.2%	2.0%	1.6%
Tennessee	1.5¢	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%	1.3%	1.3%	1.0%	1.0%	2.0%	1.5%	0.8%
Penn St.	1.5¢	1.3%	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	0.9%	1.1%	1.0%	2.5%	1.2%	1.1%
Washington	0.5¢	0.4%	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%	1.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%	1.5%	1.1%
Utah	0.5¢	0.4%	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%	1.1%	0.9%	1.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.1%
SMU	0.5¢	0.4%	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%	0.8%	1.0%	1.0%	0.7%	1.0%	0.5%
Clemson	0.5¢	0.4%	0.9%	1.6%	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%	0.8%	1.3%	0.6%	0.8%
Iowa	0.5¢	0.4%	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	0.4%	0.8%	0.5%
Houston	0.5¢	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.8%	0.7%
Missouri	0.5¢	0.4%	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%	1.1%	0.6%	0.5%
Louisville	0.5¢	0.4%	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	1.2%	0.8%	0.5%
TCU	0.5¢	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.8%	0.5%	0.5%
Illinois	0.5¢	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Florida	1.5¢	1.3%	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%
Arizona	0.5¢	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%
Vanderbilt	0.5¢	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%	0.5%
Georgia Tech	0.5¢	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
South Carolina	0.5¢	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Virginia	0.5¢	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Auburn	0.5¢	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Pittsburgh	0.5¢	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	0.3%
Florida St.	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
North Carolina St.	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.3%
Arizona St.	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
Virginia Tech	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Kansas St.	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
Tulane	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
James Madison	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Kentucky	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Baylor	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
California	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
North Texas	0.5¢	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Oklahoma St.	0.5¢	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Arkansas	0.5¢	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Miami (OH)	0.5¢	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%

Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 86% on 9,999 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 9,161 graded calls · Claude Fable 88% on 3,267 graded calls · Claude Opus 88% on 3,356 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 86% on 3,332 graded calls · GLM 84% on 4,258 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 4,636 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 4,267 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.

That percentage is the share of each seat's settled calls our public grading rules scored correct, recomputed daily across every market the panel has ever priced. No college football national title contract on that ledger has settled yet. This board is one of the first the panel priced and it settles last, in January, which means the panel's college football record gets written in public across the whole season. After two weekends the seats are furthest from the money on a row they worried about for the wrong reason: Oregon, where every one of the eight scored between 10.0 and 11.6 percent, against a contract that closed Saturday at 4 cents.

Model estimates generated August 22, 2026, price-blind. Models are frequently wrong, and the market price reflects real traders' money. Every number here gets graded in public once this market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.

More live boards from the same panel: college football playoff qualifiers, where Notre Dame is the favorite to reach the 12-team field at 87¢ bid, 89¢ asked, Texas trades at 68¢ bid, 73¢ asked and Oregon at 39¢ bid, 41¢ asked as of 3 a.m. ET Sunday on that board · an undefeated regular season · the Heisman board, where Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr opened the season as the favorite · every Kalshi college football board, scored weekly.

The Brand Premium Gave Half Of It Back

In the August edition of this page, LSU was the strangest price on the board for one reason. A 7-6 team sat eighth at 5.5 cents, ahead of Alabama, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and the entire Big 12, and carried more open interest than anyone. The explanation was a hire: Lane Kiffin left a 13-2 Ole Miss team for a 7-6 LSU team, and the market repriced the coach rather than the rosters. A week ago the premium got its receipt, a 51-10 win over Clemson that doubled the contract to 10 cents in a night.

The panel took the other side of that trade on a card fact rather than a hunch:

"Card facts that moved me: the coaching churn (Kiffin to LSU, Golding inheriting 13-2 Ole Miss, Whittingham at Michigan, Campbell at Penn State). First-year staffs rarely win titles, so I shade Ole Miss, Michigan and Penn State below their poll slots and keep LSU at parity with Ole Miss rather than above."

— Claude Fable

The blend followed: Ole Miss 3.0 percent, LSU 2.5. This week the market took back 2.5 of the 5.5 cents by midpoint, and it did not need a loss to do it. LSU beat Louisiana Tech 45-14 and outgained the Bulldogs 528 yards to 140, and Leavitt still threw three interceptions, one of them a 100-yard return that had LSU up only 10-7 at halftime. The contract went from 10 bid, 12 asked to 8 bid, 9 asked, and the rescaled gap between the market and the panel's 2.5 percent shrank from 6.4 points to 4.8. The first-year staffs the panel shaded have now played two games each, and the ledger reads differently for each of them. Michigan under Kyle Whittingham followed a 13-12 escape with a 17-10 win over 11th-ranked Oklahoma and moved to 2 bid, 3 asked. Penn State under Matt Campbell beat Temple 27-9 and stayed at 1 bid, 2 asked. Ole Miss under Pete Golding beat Charlotte 41-9 and stayed at 2 bid, 3 asked. LSU under Kiffin has the best price of the four and the only one that went down this week. None of that is a verdict. The verdict on the LSU premium is Saturday, September 19, in Oxford, Kiffin against the program he left, and it is the game the panel's whole first-year-staff argument has been waiting for.

Indiana Went 16-0 And The Market Finally Moved A Cent

The defending champion remains the most interesting price on this board because of how ordinary it is. Indiana finished 16-0 and beat Miami 27-21 in the championship game on January 19, 2026, the first national title for a program that carried more all-time losses than any other in the sport when Cignetti took the job. Cignetti's team joined 1894 Yale and 2019 North Dakota State as the only 16-0 champions in Division I football.

Seven months later Kalshi had the Hoosiers at 8.5 cents. After a 52-16 opener and a 55-0 win over Howard on Saturday they trade at 10 bid, 11 asked, up a cent on the week and level with Ohio State by midpoint. The panel went lower still at 6.0 percent, and both readings point at the same missing piece. Fernando Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns, won the Heisman Trophy, and then went No. 1 overall to the Raiders in the April draft rather than returning. Curt Cignetti is still there. The quarterback who beat everybody is not.

History is the other weight. In the 12 playoff seasons the panel's card covers, seven different programs have won the title and exactly one has gone back-to-back: Georgia in 2021 and 2022. That is the base rate every seat reasoned from, and it is why the group would not follow the voters, who have Indiana fifth in the September 7 poll with eight first-place ballots.

The panel did not agree on how hard to fade, and the argument is worth reading in full:

"I hold Indiana at 6.0 against A's 4.5 because a 16-0 defending champion with 22 combined first-place votes has earned more than full repeat-discount."

— Kimi

Kimi's 6.0 was the number the panel eventually settled on. What the market has added since is depth: the 9-cent bid described in the order-book section above is still the deepest of any contender priced above a nickel, and the crowd has now added 3,210 contracts at 10. The Hoosiers host Ohio State on October 17, and after Saturday that game is a meeting of two 10-cent teams.

Notre Dame Won 52-0 And The Crowd Doubled Its Offer

Notre Dame is where the money and the machines were furthest apart in August, and it is the contract that has moved least in a fortnight while the crowd around it has moved a lot. On August 22 it shared the top price with Ohio State at 12.5 cents, worth 10.6 percent of the board after rescaling; the panel said 7.1 percent, a 3.5-point gap that was then the widest on all 50 contracts. It closed the first Friday of the season at 13, took a 36,400-contract seller the following Sunday morning that walked it from 12 to 10 before the Irish had played, and settled at 11 bid, 13 asked. It beat Rice 52-0 at home on Saturday and is 11 bid, 13 asked again.

The price history underneath that flat line is not flat. At 5:12 p.m. Saturday, midway through the Rice game, one buyer took 98,649 Notre Dame contracts at 12 cents in eight fills. The price ticked to 13 six minutes later, closed Saturday at 12, and was back to an 11-cent bid by 3 a.m. What did change is the offer. A week ago 243,047 contracts were offered at 13 cents. Tonight 531,884 are. Somebody bought 98,649 and somebody else, or several somebodies, more than doubled the amount they are willing to sell at the next tick up. Notre Dame is now third in the AP poll and second on this board by midpoint, behind only Texas.

The crowd's case has not changed, and last season is most of it. Notre Dame went 10-2, lost only to Miami and Texas A&M, won its final ten games, and still missed the 12-team field, with the committee pointing to Miami's head-to-head win over the Irish. Notre Dame then withdrew from bowl consideration entirely. That is why the 10-2 in the table carries no postseason games. An independent schedule with no conference championship game is the cleanest road to a top seed anyone on this board has, and its quarterback, CJ Carr, opened the season as the Heisman favorite. Everyone else has to survive a title game first, and the same panel scored one of those in full on the MAC championship board.

The panel's counter-case is where it gets awkward. Three seats moved Notre Dame down during the revision round on a structural claim about seeding:

"The expanded playoff mathematically punishes independent paths. Notre Dame sits at #4/#5 in the preseason polls, but because they cannot win a conference, they are ineligible for a top-four seed and a first-round bye."

— Gemini Pro

[Editor's note: this premise is out of date. The 2026-27 College Football Playoff uses straight seeding, and the four highest-ranked teams receive first-round byes whether or not they won a conference. A top-four Notre Dame would get a bye. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as it was scored.]

The rest of the fade survives the correction. Winning four games against ranked opponents is harder than winning three, and Notre Dame still has to be a top-four team on December 6 to avoid it. But readers should discount the reasoning by exactly the amount that reasoning leaned on a rule that changed. What the crowd is doing at 13 cents, nobody on this page can tell you. What we can tell you is that the offer doubled in a week the Irish did nothing but win.

Ohio State Is Still Where The Panel Pays Up

In August, Ohio State was the one place on this board where the panel talked a price up rather than down, and a 24-23 loss in Austin has made that gap the largest it has been. The market has the Buckeyes at 10 bid, 11 asked, worth about 9.0 percent after rescaling, down from 10.2 a week ago and behind Texas, Notre Dame and Miami. The panel says 13.9 percent, and all eight seats landed between 13.0 and 15.9. That is a 4.9-point gap in the panel's favor, and it is the only gap of its kind on the board the panel chose: Oregon's is wider, but Oregon's is the residue of a loss, and Ohio State's is a price the panel set on purpose and the market has now moved away from.

The card gave them plenty of reason. Ohio State was the consensus No. 1 in both preseason polls, with 40 of the AP first-place votes and 38 from the coaches, and it kept the top spot in the September 7 poll with 46 first-place votes, off a 12-2 season under Ryan Day; it is one of four programs on the card with more than one title in the 12 playoff seasons it covers, alongside Alabama, Clemson and Georgia. What the panel would not do is turn that into an old-format favorite:

"I anchored on the two preseason polls' near-unanimous #1 and built out from there, but flattened the tail more than a 4-team-era board would justify: 12 teams now qualify, so a title requires surviving 3-4 straight games rather than just 1-2."

— Claude Sonnet

Read that against Saturday's tape and the reasoning holds up even as the price gets lonelier. The seats never priced Ohio State as a king; they priced it as the best roster in a bracket that would ask it to win three or four games in a row, and a one-point road loss to the No. 4 team in September changes the seeding math more than the roster. The market, which paid 17 cents for the Buckeyes at 9:18 p.m., in a game they led by 17 at the half and by 20 midway through the third, and 10 cents for them two hours later, priced the game. The 100,000-contract Ohio State order at 13 cents that absorbed without a tick two Fridays ago has a sequel: 78,173 contracts bought at 13 cents 49 minutes after kickoff Saturday, and every one of them is underwater tonight. Ohio State's 12-cent offer is 215,004 contracts deep, its 10-cent bid is 8,492, and its next three games are Kent State, Illinois and a trip to Iowa. The market will pay for Saturday. The panel will only pay for the roster, and for once the roster lost.

Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss

Below a nickel the board stops distinguishing between teams, and the reason is mechanical. On these rows a 1-cent bid cannot rest, because it would trade straight into the 1-cent offers, so a bid only appears once a buyer clears the whole penny stack, and BYU's stack is 1.32 million contracts deep. For a bid to appear on one of these rows, a team has to give the crowd a reason to expect a resale before January, which in practice means a ranked win or a conference lead by mid-October. Oklahoma State just supplied the ranked win, over the panel's second choice, and it is still a no-bid row: 1-11 a year ago, no buyer at any price above a penny, and 7,763 contracts bought at that penny on Saturday by people who watched the game. That is the bar the panel's dark horses have to clear, and it is where the panel found the most to say.

BYU is still the one to watch, because it is the anomaly inside the anomaly. The Cougars went 12-2, opened 63-7 over Utah Tech, beat Arizona 28-17 on Saturday, sit 15th in the poll, and still have no buyer at all on the exchange: nothing bid, a penny asked, with 1,319,688 contracts offered at that penny. Yet about 65,000 BYU contracts traded this week, every one of them a buyer paying the penny. Somebody keeps paying for a team the book will not bid on, and the panel is with the buyer, at 1.5 percent, the largest positive gap of any contract in the tail. BYU's road to a bid runs through Big 12 play; a conference lead in October is the kind of resale story that gets a penny contract a buyer on the other side. Utah went 11-2, beat Arkansas 43-10 late Saturday night, and sits in the same no-bid bucket at a panel number of 1.0 percent; about 30,900 Utah contracts were bought at a penny overnight, while the score was fresh. Washington needed a 16-14 win over Utah State and has no bid either against a panel read of 1.1 percent.

Two names sit further up, and both stood still this week. Texas A&M went 11-2, is tenth in the poll, and beat Arizona State 48-20, yet remains at 2 bid, 3 asked against a panel read of 4.3 percent, the widest gap in the panel's favor below a nickel after Oregon's; one buyer took 21,851 Aggies contracts at 3 cents at 6:57 p.m. Saturday and the price did not move. Ole Miss went 13-2 and the panel has it at 3.0 percent against a 2-cent bid. The Rebels host LSU on Saturday, and the contract on the other side of that game has four times the bid.

Then there is the group nobody will price at all. Tulane went 11-3, James Madison went 12-2, and North Texas went 12-2 and then lost 52-16 at Indiana. All three sit at no bid and a 1-cent ask, and the panel agreed with the shape if not the certainty, putting each at 0.2 percent. In the 12-team era those teams can reach the field. Winning four straight games against the top of it is the part the market has decided is not worth a penny.

Where The Panel Changed Its Mind

After the first round every seat read the other seven boards anonymously and could revise. The biggest single move was DeepSeek's, which had Ohio State at 20.2 percent and cut it to 14.8 after seeing that no other seat would go near a fifth of the board.

Claude Opus made the most specific revision, and named where it came from:

"The revision I actually made came from Forecasters B and G, who read the coaching column harder than I did. This card is a churn outlier: Golding inherits a 13-2 Ole Miss while Kiffin takes a 7-6 LSU, Whittingham takes Michigan, Campbell takes Penn State, Franklin takes Virginia Tech. First-year staffs essentially never win titles, so I cut Ole Miss to 3.0, Michigan to 1.5 and Penn State to 0.9."

— Claude Opus

One seat read everything and moved nothing:

"After reading the other boards I held my numbers: Forecaster A's 20% on Ohio State reads like four-team-era pricing, and nothing in the card supports a king. I also did not adopt the Alabama-on-brand bump, because 11-4 and a 38-3 playoff loss is the evidence on the card."

— Claude Fable

The round did what it usually does, which is tighten the group. Before it, the eight seats spread across more than seven points on Ohio State, from 12.8 to 20.2. After it, the widest gap on the co-favorite was 2.9. That convergence is worth watching rather than trusting: a panel that agrees with itself is not the same thing as a panel that is right, and the one structural claim that spread fastest through the round was the seeding premise that turned out to be wrong. Two weeks in, the row it put second with the most confidence, Oregon, is the row that is furthest underwater, and the row it argued about longest, Ohio State, is the one where its reasoning holds up best, even as its price now sits further from the market than it ever has.

What Would Change The Panel's Mind

Every seat was asked in August what single development would most reshape its board. Here is how those answers look after two weekends, in the order the calendar reaches them.

• The Next Two Saturdays. The market pays for who you beat, not by how much: LSU gave back 2.5 cents by midpoint in a week it won by 31, a 52-0 Notre Dame win was worth nothing, and a one-point Texas win over No. 1 was worth 3 cents and the top of the board. The next results that can move the top of this board are LSU at Ole Miss on September 19 and Texas at Tennessee on September 26; Ohio State's next three opponents are Kent State, Illinois and Iowa, and none of them can give the Buckeyes their 2 cents back.
• A Quarterback Injury At Ohio State Or Oregon Before November. Five of the eight seats named this unprompted as the largest single risk to their board. Oregon's loss in Stillwater came with Dante Moore at quarterback, and the contract still closed 7 cents below Friday. The two teams the panel worried about most meet in Columbus on November 7, and after Saturday the market has them at a combined 14 cents by midpoint.
• Ole Miss And LSU Through September. The August version of this page said the first-year-staff discount would show up first at Ole Miss at 2 cents if it was wrong. It showed up first at LSU at 10, and LSU has since given 2.5 of those cents back without losing. Ole Miss is still 2 bid, 3 asked, so Saturday in Oxford puts an 8-cent bid against a 2-cent bid in a game the sportsbooks will price far closer than that.
• Sunday, December 6, Selection Day. The committee's final ranking decides the 12-team field and the four byes. A top-four Notre Dame collects the bye three seats assumed it could not have, which would falsify the specific reasoning behind what was, until this month, the panel's largest fade.

When This Settles

Date	What happens
Sunday, December 6, 2026	Selection day: the 12-team field is set and the four highest-ranked teams get byes
December 18 And 19, 2026	First round
December 30, 2026 And January 1, 2027	Quarterfinals
January 14 And 15, 2027	Semifinals
Monday, January 25, 2027	National Championship Game, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

Kalshi's contracts on this event settle on the winner of that game and are listed to expire by February 23, 2027, with early close once a champion is declared. Prices on this page are as of September 13, 2026; panel numbers are as of August 22, 2026, and the board gets re-scored here when the story moves.

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The Bottom Line

Three weeks ago the market and the machines agreed on the shape of this season and argued about four names. A week ago the market added 5.5 cents to LSU and took them from nobody, and this page said the board was not yet sure it meant it. This week it decided. Thirteen and a half cents came off Oregon, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU and Texas Tech, seven and a half went to Texas, Miami, Indiana, Georgia and Michigan, and the sum of the board fell back to 117 cents, within half a cent of where the panel found it on August 22. The favorite changed on a 1-yard run with 25 seconds left, and the team the panel scored second is a 3-cent contract.

The panel, frozen on August 22, still has Ohio State's roster as the only thing on the board worth paying up for, and it is now 4.9 points above a market that watched that roster lose. Its Oregon number is 7.5 points above a market that watched Oregon lose to a 1-11 team. And its Texas number is four points below a market that watched Texas come back from 20 down. Two of those three gaps exist because the panel priced rosters and the market priced Saturdays. The third exists because the panel was wrong about a game it could not see, and it will be graded that way.

Texas's 14 cents is real money and a real move, made on a 618,923-contract Saturday. It is also a bid that was 2,765 contracts deep at 2:55 a.m. Sunday, with the real buyers a cent below it and 130,000 contracts of sellers two cents above. A week ago that was LSU's shape, and LSU's sellers came down to meet the buyers within seven days. Whether Texas's do depends on Knoxville on September 26. Neither reading is punditry, because both get graded here in public against the settlement.

Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style.

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