TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Real Madrid (15%), Manchester City (13%), PSG (10%) (ties shown at equal blends in the table). Every verdict below was made price-blind, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
Europe's biggest club prize has no dominant favorite on the board: PSG (18 cents), Real Madrid (17), Barcelona (16), Arsenal (14), and Bayern Munich (14) sit within four cents of each other. That flatness is the story: the models had to decide whether any of the four deserves separation, and whether the field below that group holds value the crowd is ignoring.
What The Models Were Given
The models ran knowledge-only with an anti-misattribution instruction: the summer transfer window is open, so they were told to reason from club quality tiers and structural factors rather than specific player-club claims they cannot verify. That posture is disclosed per our data-card rules. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Leipzig: market 11¢, AI blend 1.5% (10 points below the crowd). Claude Opus: "Leipzig is a second-tier European side with no deep UCL runs, facing a field of far stronger favorites." [Editor's note: this model's premise is wrong — Leipzig reached the Champions League semifinals in 2019-20. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
PSG: market 18¢, AI blend 10% (8 points below the crowd). GLM 5.2: "PSG is a top-tier club with consistent knockout-stage presence but lacks historical UCL success, making them a strong but not elite contender in a large field." [Editor's note: this model's premise is wrong — PSG won the Champions League in 2024-25 and 2025-26; any premise that they lack recent European success is out of date. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
Stuttgart: market 8¢, AI blend 0.7% (7 points below the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "As a non-elite club, Stuttgart faces a massive financial and talent gap compared to European giants, making a Champions League victory highly improbable."
Barcelona: market 16¢, AI blend 9% (7 points below the crowd). GLM 5.2: "Barcelona is a top-tier club but not the clear favorite in a large, highly competitive field where even elite teams face low single-digit to low-teens win probabilities."
The Full Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 17¢ | 15% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 18% | 18% | — | 15% |
| Manchester City | 9¢ | 13% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 13% | — | 15% |
| PSG | 18¢ | 10% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 6% | 6% | — | 8% |
| Bayern Munich | 14¢ | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 8% | — | 9% |
| Liverpool | 8¢ | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | — | 12% |
| Barcelona | 16¢ | 9% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 5% | — | 8% |
| Arsenal | 14¢ | 8% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 7% | — | 8% |
| Inter | 2¢ | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | — | 8% |
| Dortmund | 2¢ | 3% | 1.8% | 2% | 1.8% | 9% | 3% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Atletico | 5¢ | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | — | 4% |
| Napoli | 4¢ | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.8% | 6% | 2% | 1.5% | — | 2% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1¢ | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | — | 0.5% |
| Leipzig | 11¢ | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | 2% |
| Manchester United | 5¢ | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | — | 3% |
| Aston Villa | 1¢ | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | — | 0.4% |
| Villarreal | 1¢ | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | 0.5% |
| Galatasaray | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | 0.2% |
| Lille | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | — | 0.2% |
| Roma | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | — | 0.5% |
| Feyenoord | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | — | 0.2% |
| Stuttgart | 8¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | — | 0.2% |
| Sporting CP | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | — | 0.3% |
| Club Brugge | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | — | 0.1% |
| Porto | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | 0.5% |
| Real Betis | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | — | 0.1% |
| Lens | — | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.1% |
| Slavia Prague | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.1% |
| Shakhtar | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.1% |
| Como | 1¢ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% |
Model estimates generated July 26, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
The models ran knowledge-only with an anti-misattribution instruction: the summer transfer window is open, so they were told to reason from club quality tiers and structural factors rather than specific player-club claims they cannot verify. That posture is disclosed per our data-card rules.
