Prices as of August 26, 2026, 7:56 p.m. Eastern. Record compiled from 33 dated sources; see the sourced record file for every citation.
Nobody is running for president. As of August 26 the only declared Republicans are two men named Dan Greaney and Royce White, and the Democrats have none. The market does not wait for paperwork. On Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, the contract that pays $1 if Vice President J.D. Vance is the next person sworn in as president was quoted at 7:56 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday at 19 cents by buyers and 20 by sellers: about a 20% chance, the best of the 30 names listed and still a one-in-five shot. Second is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13 to 14 cents, a 9-cent afterthought three weeks ago, whose entire public position, given to ABC's Jonathan Karl on August 9, is "I haven't ruled out the possibility." Secretary of State Marco Rubio is 12 to 13. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, who said on August 17 that he has "zero interest in running for president in 2028," is 10 to 11. Add the four and you get 58 cents. The market's answer to "who will win the 2028 election" is: probably one of those four, none of whom has entered, and, taken one at a time, probably not any of them.
The week's story is the second name. At 1:39 a.m. Eastern on Sunday, August 23, one buyer took 161,825 Ocasio-Cortez contracts in a single second, walking her price from 9.6 cents to 13, about $16,500 at risk. By the end of the day 194,069 of her contracts had traded, the most on any name on this board in the past month, and she closed at 14. We found no news that night to explain it. Two days earlier, at 9:02 a.m. on August 21, someone bet against Rubio with 50,030 contracts at 14 cents, roughly $43,000 on the "no" side, and his price closed that day at 12, from 15. Gov. Gavin Newsom, 12 cents on August 7, has drifted to 8.4 without a single bad day.
Kalshi's smaller party market, as of 7:58 p.m., priced a Democrat winning at 57 to 59 cents and a Republican at 41 to 42. That is the shape of 2028 on August 26, 2026: a Democrat is the likelier winner, and the likeliest single winner is a Republican, because one side's chances sit on one man and the other side's are split five ways. Election Day is Tuesday, November 7, 2028. There are 27 months and one midterm between here and there.
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The Board
As of August 26, 2026, 7:56 p.m. Eastern (Kalshi, cents = probability; the bid/ask is what buyers will pay and what sellers want):
| Outcome | Yes price (bid/ask) | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 19¢ / 20¢ | about 20% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13¢ / 14¢ | about 14% |
| Marco Rubio | 12¢ / 13¢ | about 13% |
| Jon Ossoff | 10¢ / 11¢ | about 11% |
Each contract pays $1 if that person is "the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029," so the vote on November 7, 2028 decides it and the oath on January 20, 2029 pays it. The four names above hold 58 cents; the other 26 hold about 50 more, none above 8.5: Newsom 8.4 to 8.5, Kamala Harris 4.5 to 4.6, and Donald Trump, whom the 22nd Amendment bars from a third term and who said on August 12, per The Hill, "I'd love to run, but the law is very strong," at 3.1 to 3.2. The month's movement: Vance was 17 to 18 cents in late July, 19 from August 3, and 20 for the first time on August 15; he dipped to 18 from August 19 through 22 and was back at 20 on August 24, his biggest day in a month at 49,349 contracts, with the week's other large buys, 24,954 contracts at 19 cents on August 24 and 23,674 at 20 on August 26, both on his side. Ocasio-Cortez sat between 8.5 and 9.7 for four weeks before Sunday's buy. Rubio fell from 17 in July to 15 on August 7, the day his nomination price also broke, and to 12 on August 21. The board traded 246,443 contracts in the last 24 hours and about 62.4 million since it opened, with 44.3 million positions still open. Polymarket at 7:59 p.m. had Vance 23.4, Ocasio-Cortez 14.2, Rubio 10.8 and Ossoff 10.0: the same four in the same order, with a wider lead for Vance.
What the Models Think
We also put the question to our panel of forecasting programs, which we grade in public against real settlements, without showing them the price, only the sourced record below. Three of the panel's eight seats ran this board. Their middle answer put Vance at 24%, four points above the 20-cent market, and the widest gap between any two of them was 13 points, from 22 to 35. All three did the same arithmetic: roughly a 55 to 60% chance he is the nominee, multiplied by a general election they put near 43% for him, because Emerson has Democrats up 51 to 43 on the generic ballot, 56% of voters disapprove of the president, and Vance's own favorability sits at 39% for and 54% against. One model: "nomination odds don't equal general-election odds." The high seat, at 35, gave more weight to a July poll that had him seven points up on Newsom and to a Democratic field with no front-runner; the low seats leaned on the base rate, a party winning a third straight term about one time in three since 1952. All three named the same next mover, the November 3, 2026 midterms and what the president says about Vance afterward. The market has real money behind it. The panel has only the record. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Four Names, No Candidates: What Each Has Actually Said
Vance's position is a date, not an answer. On CBS Sunday Morning on June 14, per The Independent, "Usha and I will absolutely sit down and talk about what comes next for our family" after the midterms. On Fox News on September 6, 2025: "If I do end up running, it's not going to be given to me—either on the Republican side or on the national side." The man who could give it to him has declined to. On May 12, per Time: "That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance." Rubio has already said which of them sits on top. To Vanity Fair in December 2025, as quoted by ABC News on March 16: "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him." That is why the Republican nominee board has Vance at 43 to 44 cents and Rubio at 22 to 23, and why this board, which multiplies the nomination by the general, has them at 20 and 13.
The Democrats are four different kinds of no. Ocasio-Cortez, asked by Karl on This Week whether she is running: "I mean, I'm focused on winning the midterms. I'm running for Congress right now," and then, pressed, "I haven't ruled out the possibility. And I'm very humbled to the tremendous amount of support out there." Asked about a Senate run against Chuck Schumer instead: "I think that anything is possible at this juncture." Kalshi's own write-up on August 13 had her passing Newsom on the nomination board on that answer; how she got there is its own story, and the full Democratic field is priced separately. Ossoff's no is the flattest. On MS NOW, per the Washington Examiner: "Let me reiterate. I have zero interest in running for president in 2028 and, frankly, zero interest in the 2028 fantasy football right now." The market prices him at 11 cents anyway because, per the Examiner on August 22, he leads Rep. Mike Collins by an average of nearly 8 points in his Georgia Senate race, and a Democrat who holds Georgia arrives in 2028 with the argument pre-written. Newsom's no has been a yes since October 26, 2025, when he told CBS Sunday Morning, per the AP, that he would give it serious thought after November 2026: "I'd be lying otherwise." Asked in a clip that circulated August 20 whether he would be a good president: "I have no idea. I would like to think I would be, but that's for others to determine." Harris, on February 25, in an interview with Sharon McMahon: "I haven't decided." "I might." She is 4.5 cents.
The Map, The Polls, And Two Files The Market Shrugged At
The 2028 map is the 2024 map. The 538 electors and the 270 needed to win are apportioned from the 2020 census; the 2030 count, which Decision Desk HQ projected on February 2 would give Texas four more seats and Florida three while California loses four and New York two, and which "would have increased Trump's electoral vote haul to 322," does not arrive until the election after this one. On that map Trump beat Harris 312 to 226 in 2024, sweeping the seven swing states. The polling since says the ground has moved. Emerson's August 16 to 17 survey of 1,000 likely voters had Democrats 51 to 43 on the generic congressional ballot and Newsom, Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Ossoff beating Vance head to head by 3 to 5 points; Rubio led Harris by 5 and trailed Newsom by 2. Spencer Kimball: "A majority of voters, 56%, disapprove of the job Trump is doing, including 66% of independents and 92% of Democrats." Zogby, a month earlier, per Newsweek, had the opposite: "JD Vance: 45.1 percent vs Gavin Newsom: 38.1 percent," with 17 to 23 percent not sure. Twenty-seven months out, both are true at once, which is roughly what a 20-cent favorite means.
Two of the names above carry documented files, and the tape has priced both. Vance's is the July 15 Joe Rogan interview. Per PBS NewsHour: "We absolutely screwed up the comms of the Epstein files. Like, we just did." Per the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, he also said Epstein "clearly had connections to the highest levels of Israeli intelligence," and that on documents to prove it, "the answer is no." On August 2, Axios, via Political Wire, reported the Wall Street Journal's opinion writers had "ripped Vance for being too self-promoting, too eager to court Tucker Carlson, and too thin-skinned." His contract was 17 to 18 cents before the interview and is 19 to 20 now. Newsom's file is older. On July 28, per the San Francisco Standard, Ruby Rippey, his appointments secretary when he was mayor of San Francisco, published a Vanity Fair essay on their 2005 affair, answering his memoir's "the briefest of affairs": "I keep it plain: just sex — on and off for months — with the mayor." She disputes his claim to have told her husband, his deputy chief of staff Alex Tourk, himself. Newsom's spokesman Izzy Gardon said the governor "acknowledged his role and publicly apologized nearly two decades ago." Kalshi's August 13 note tied his slide on the nomination board to the essay; on this board he went from 12 cents on August 7 to 8.4 on August 24, a day at a time.
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What Moves The Price From Here
- November 3, 2026. The midterms are the first real number. Ossoff's Georgia race is the whole case for his 11 cents, the generic ballot gets replaced by results, and Vance has said his own decision comes after that night, with the president's endorsement, or his silence, the one thing all three forecasters named as the swing.
- January 2027 through the first declaration. Newsom leaves office in January 2027; the Democratic National Committee picks Boston, Denver or Philadelphia for its convention before the end of 2026, per the Washington Examiner on August 20; and the first major name to file, on either side, converts a price built on "haven't ruled it out" into one built on a candidate.
- January 22, 2028, and after. South Carolina opens the Democratic calendar, then Nevada on February 1 and New Hampshire on February 8, per Ballotpedia; Republicans are expected to start in Iowa. The Democrats nominate August 7 to 10, 2028, the Republicans in Houston after that. Every contract on this board is decided on Tuesday, November 7, 2028, and paid when the winner takes the oath on January 20, 2029.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. JD Vance photo by Daniel Torok, licensed Public domain; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez photo by US House Office of Photography, licensed Public domain; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of August 26, 2026, 7:56 p.m. Eastern, and will keep moving until this market settles after the November 7, 2028 vote. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
