2-0 on Thursday Night Football! Drake Maye and Luther Burden III both found the end zone, and I'll be honest, I did not see this hot streak coming. I'm running red-hot this NFL season out of the middle of nowhere, and when you're this hot, you put up shots whenever the ball touches your hand. So let's keep shooting.
This week I'm taking one touchdown in each Sunday window: one at 1 PM ET, one in the late afternoon and one on Sunday Night Football. All three came out of Stokastic's Ask the Sims, which plays each game 10,000 times, snap by snap, with a final score and a full box score for every one. When I asked it for the best-value anytime touchdowns across Week 7, these three were at or near the top of the list for their windows.
The Sims also hand you the game scripts, and all three plays like their team winning:
- Colts at Vikings (1 PM ET): Minnesota wins 6,950 of 10,000 games, with a default projection of Vikings 24, Colts 17. The books have the Vikings -6.5 with a total of 41.5.
- Packers at Lions (4:25 PM ET): Detroit wins more often, but Green Bay still takes 3,712 games, and the default projection is a shootout, Lions 30, Packers 26. The total is 55.5, the highest on the slate.
- Chiefs at Seahawks (8:20 PM ET): Seattle wins 5,645 games, with a default projection of Seahawks 23, Chiefs 20, right in line with Seattle -3 and a 42.5 total.
Play #1 (1 PM ET): Minnesota's Scrambling Quarterback, 17¢ (+456 Effective)
Kyler Murray returned in Week 3 from a concussion that knocked him out of the opener, and the Vikings are 5-0 coming off their bye. He hasn't run much yet, with 20 carries for 93 yards, but 13 of those 20 were scrambles, and his usage is climbing: two, two, six and then 10 carries in Week 5 against the Saints. The goal-line work is there, too. He has three carries inside the 10, tied with Aaron Jones for the team lead, and two of them came inside the 5.
The matchup is the reason this is the biggest edge on the 1 PM board. Indianapolis ranks 31st in EPA per rush allowed, opposing quarterbacks have run 21 times for 129 yards and a touchdown against the Colts, and their defense has given up touchdowns on 70% of opponents' red-zone trips. Sauce Gardner is out, and the Colts had 17 players on Thursday's injury report.
The risk is efficiency. Murray is averaging just 0.03 EPA per rush with a 40% success rate, and he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown as a Viking yet. Jones has two of Minnesota's three rushing touchdowns, and Jordan Mason has had his practice window opened to come off IR, which could mean another body near the goal line.
Ask the Sims has Murray scoring in 27.0% of its 10,000 games (2,702 of them, about +270), against a Kalshi price of 18.0¢ once you add the fee. That's an 8.0¢ edge, the biggest Yes edge in any 1 PM game. In the 6,950 games Minnesota wins, he scores 31.8% of the time, and his best pairing is a blowout: a Murray touchdown plus a Vikings win by 18-plus hit together 55% more often than their separate prices imply.
Kalshi's 17¢ works out to +456 after the fee, the best number out there, with DraftKings at +425, FanDuel at +410, Caesars at +400 and BetMGM way back at +310. The market is deep, with about 37,800 contracts sitting at the 17¢ ask.
Play #2 (4:25 PM ET): Green Bay's End-Zone Target, 38¢ (+152 Effective)
Matthew Golden cashed a touchdown for me last week, and if he does it again, I might actually have to like a Packer for the first time in my life. As a lifelong Vikings fan, that's a lot to ask. He's earned it on paper, though: Golden is Green Bay's No. 1 receiver by just about every measure. He has 58 targets, a 26.1% target share, and 38.1% of the Packers' air yards, good for a 0.66 WOPR. He's at 30 catches for 501 yards and three touchdowns with a 14.1-yard aDOT, he's played between 77% and 88% of the snaps every week, and he's hit 100 yards in three of six games.
The touchdown case is the red-zone usage. Golden has 12 red-zone targets, the most on the team out of Green Bay's 35, plus seven end-zone targets, and all three of his touchdowns came from 15 yards or closer.
Detroit's defense is the right opponent for it. The Lions rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed, they've given up 14 passing touchdowns in five games, fourth-most in the league, and opponents have scored touchdowns on 80% of their red-zone trips. Safety Brian Branch (Achilles) is questionable.
The risks: Golden was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury, though he carries no game designation, and Christian Watson is right there competing for the same looks, with nine end-zone targets and six touchdowns of his own.
The Sims have Golden scoring in 46.4% of their games (4,637 of 10,000, about +116), against a Kalshi price of 39.6¢ with the fee, a 5.1¢ edge. In the 3,712 games Green Bay wins, he scores 53.7% of the time. The Sims like his two-touchdown contract even more, at 11.4% against 7.5¢ on Kalshi, and his best pairing is his quarterback having a big day: a Golden touchdown plus Jordan Love throwing three or more touchdowns hit together 42% more often than their prices imply.
Kalshi's 38¢ works out to +152 after the fee, the best number out there, with FanDuel at +145, Caesars at +144 and DraftKings and BetMGM at +135. There are about 37,800 contracts sitting at 38¢.
Play #3 (SNF): Seattle's Whole Passing Game, 43¢ (+124 Effective)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having the kind of season where the target numbers look like a typo. He has 66 targets, a 34.9% target share, and 44.1% of Seattle's air yards for a 0.83 WOPR, the highest of anyone on this card by a mile. He's at 49 catches for 717 yards and seven touchdowns, with 0.70 EPA per target and a 68% success rate, and he's played at least 84% of the snaps in every game but one.
The red-zone numbers match. Smith-Njigba has 11 of Seattle's 26 red-zone targets and seven end-zone targets. Zach Charbonnet (knee) is out, which takes away one of the Seahawks' options near the goal line.
This is the toughest matchup on the card. Kansas City ranks third in EPA per dropback allowed, it's given up just four passing touchdowns in five games, second-fewest in the league, and it's held opponents to touchdowns on 47% of their red-zone trips. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (knee) is questionable, and the Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice on offense.
The Sims still have Smith-Njigba scoring in 53.2% of their games (5,321 of 10,000, about -114), against a Kalshi price of 44.7¢ with the fee, a 6.8¢ edge, the biggest Yes edge on the Seattle side. In the 5,645 games Seattle wins, he scores 59.0% of the time. His two-touchdown contract is 14.5% in the Sims against 10.6¢ on Kalshi, and his best pairing is a Smith-Njigba touchdown plus Sam Darnold throwing two or more touchdowns, which hit together 39% more often than their prices imply.
Kalshi's 43¢ works out to +124 after the fee, the best number out there, with Caesars at +121, DraftKings and FanDuel at +120 and BetMGM at +110. This is the deepest market on the card, with about 148,600 contracts sitting at 43¢.
Three Combos the Sims Like
None of these are on the official card, but if you like building Kalshi combos, here's what the Sims would put together from these same legs. The Sims column is how often the combo hit across the 10,000 games, and the expected Kalshi column is the Sims' estimate of what Kalshi's market makers will quote for it:
| Combo | Sims | Expected Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Murray TD + Vikings win | 22.1¢ | 14.7¢ |
| Golden TD + Jordan Love 3+ passing TDs | 23.7¢ | 17.6¢ |
| Smith-Njigba TD + Sam Darnold 2+ passing TDs | 36.5¢ | 26.0¢ |
The Smith-Njigba combo has the most cushion of the three, more than 10¢ between the Sims number and the expected quote, which makes sense when one guy is getting more than a third of the targets. Combo quotes move around more than single contracts do, so check the live price in Kalshi's builder before you buy, and pass if it's above the Sims number.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Murray's 17¢ you're adding on 0.99¢, so you're really paying 17.99¢. On Golden's 38¢ it's 1.65¢, so 39.65¢, and on Smith-Njigba's 43¢ it's 1.72¢, so 44.72¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before each kickoff (especially Golden's shoulder and Sneed's knee), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
Each contract sits on its game's touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Sunday, October 25, 2026, 9:20 AM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee, and the Sims column is the scoring probability from Ask the Sims:
| Contract | Kickoff | Price | After fee | Effective | Sims | Best book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray Yes 1+ TD | 1:00 PM ET | 17¢ | 17.99¢ | +456 | 27.0% | +425 (DraftKings) | 0.25u |
| Matthew Golden Yes 1+ TD | 4:25 PM ET | 38¢ | 39.65¢ | +152 | 46.4% | +145 (FanDuel) | 0.5u |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Yes 1+ TD | 8:20 PM ET | 43¢ | 44.72¢ | +124 | 53.2% | +121 (Caesars) | 0.5u |
All three markets are deep. Murray's contract has traded about 48,200 with about 37,800 at the ask, Golden's has traded about 6,500 with about 37,800 at the ask, and Smith-Njigba's has traded about 6,900 with about 148,600 at the ask.
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Final Thoughts
A quarterback facing one of the worst run defenses in football, a receiver who gets the ball when Green Bay is close, and a receiver who basically is Seattle's passing game. Murray's ticket misses nearly three times out of four, Golden's a little more than half the time and Smith-Njigba's a little less than half, so size them like it.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing just because Thursday went well. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the full Sunday.
— Lindy
More on this: Thursday Night Football Picks: Maye Completes 22 · Sunday Night Football Picks: The Market Is Pricing Last Week · Patriots vs Bears Anytime TD Picks: Maye At 20 Cents · NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Picks: One Didn't Survive The Sims · Monday Night Football Picks: What A 7.5-Point Spread Hides
