Prices as of Tuesday, October 6, 2026, about 3 p.m. ET. Kalshi prices include the taker fee. Touchdown markets are open for six of the 14 Week 5 games with Sims so far; the rest are listed below and get prices as their markets open.
Week 5 opens with a winless Tampa Bay team in Dallas on Thursday night, and the best touchdown price on the board is already sitting in that game. It belongs to the Buccaneers, not the Cowboys.
I put every open anytime TD contract next to 10,000 Stokastic Sims of each game and kept the ones where a player scores more often than his price says. Four made the card: three scorers and one touchdown to bet against, led by Irving.
Bucky Irving at +190
Bucky Irving scores a TD · 34.5¢ (+190) on Kalshi · The Sims have it at 41.9% (+138).
What has to happen
- Irving is Tampa Bay's likeliest scorer in the Sims at 41.9%, well ahead of quarterback Jalon Daniels at 25.6%, who starts with Baker Mayfield out (per ESPN).
- The Sims make Dallas a 74.9% winner at home, so this needs one Tampa Bay trip to the end zone, not a win.
- Dallas may be without linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, its second level against the run, and corner Cobie Durant, both doubtful per ESPN.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Bucky Irving scores a TD | 34.5¢ (+190) | Scores in 41.9% of the Sims |
| ALSO | YES on CeeDee Lamb scores a TD | 49.7¢ (+101) | 51.0%, close to fair |
| SKIP | YES on Javonte Williams scores a TD | 67.6¢ (-209) | 62.0%, costs more than it hits |
My readThursday night, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Dallas is the likelier team to score, but Irving is the cheaper touchdown, and that is about 21¢ of edge per dollar.
Henderson Over Stevenson
TreVeyon Henderson scores a TD · 37.6¢ (+166) on Kalshi · The Sims have it at 43.8% (+128).
What has to happen
- The Sims split New England's backfield almost evenly: Henderson scores in 43.8%, Rhamondre Stevenson in 43.4%.
- Stevenson costs 52.7¢ (-111) and Henderson 37.6¢ (+166), so the same touchdown chance is 15¢ cheaper on Henderson.
- Las Vegas (3-1) visits New England (2-2) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on TreVeyon Henderson scores a TD | 37.6¢ (+166) | Scores in 43.8% of the Sims |
| ALSO | YES on Mike Washington Jr. scores a TD | 14.8¢ (+576) | 21.1%, the Raiders' long shot |
| SKIP | YES on Rhamondre Stevenson scores a TD | 52.7¢ (-111) | 43.4%, priced like a favorite |
My readSame backfield, two prices. I'd rather own the cheaper half of it.
The Sanders Long Shot
Raheim Sanders scores a TD · 11.7¢ (+755) on Kalshi · The Sims have it at 17.5% (+471).
What has to happen
- Cleveland (3-1) plays at the Jets (1-3) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS, and Quinshon Judkins is the Browns' lead back in the Sims at 42.1%.
- Sanders needs the second-back work near the goal line; he scores in 17.5% of the Sims, about one game in six.
- Judkins is priced right at 42.7¢ (+134), so the room on this backfield sits with Sanders.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Raheim Sanders scores a TD | 11.7¢ (+755) | Scores in 17.5% of the Sims |
| ALSO | YES on Quinshon Judkins scores a TD | 42.7¢ (+134) | 42.1%, a fair price |
| SKIP | YES on Garrett Wilson scores a TD | 39.6¢ (+153) | 32.4%, overpriced |
My readSmall stake. It misses far more than it hits, and the price pays for that.
Fade Jonathan Taylor
NO on Jonathan Taylor scores a TD · 37.6¢ (+166) on Kalshi · The Sims have him held out of the end zone in 41.2% (+143).
What has to happen
- Taylor scores in 58.8% of the Sims, but YES costs 70.5¢ (-239), more than that chance.
- Pittsburgh's Jaylen Warren scores more often in the Sims, 61.1%, and has no Kalshi contract up yet.
- Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are both 2-2; Steelers back Rico Dowdle is questionable per ESPN.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Jonathan Taylor scores a TD | 37.6¢ (+166) | No Taylor TD in 41.2% of the Sims |
| ALSO | YES on DK Metcalf scores a TD | 35.6¢ (+181) | 34.2%, about fair |
| SKIP | YES on Tyler Warren scores a TD | 39.6¢ (+153) | 31.1%, overpriced |
My readThis is a price fade, not a player fade. Taylor is still the likeliest Colt to score.
My Take
Buy YES on Bucky Irving scores a TD at 34.5¢ (+190). A 34.5¢ price needs him to score 34.5% of the time; the Sims have him at 41.9%, the most room on the Week 5 board with the taker fee already paid.
Second, YES on TreVeyon Henderson at 37.6¢ (+166), the cheaper half of a backfield the Sims split evenly.
- YES on Raheim Sanders scores a TD at 11.7¢ (+755), a small long-shot stake.
- NO on Jonathan Taylor scores a TD at 37.6¢ (+166).
- Two smaller plus prices: Jakobi Meyers scores a TD at 26.3¢ (+280), 28.5% in the Sims, and Tony Pollard scores a TD at 30.4¢ (+229), 32.3%.
Every price here includes Kalshi's taker fee. For how that fee compares with a sportsbook's cut, see Kalshi fees vs. sportsbook vig.
Not On Kalshi Yet
These are the Sims' likeliest scorers in games without Kalshi touchdown markets yet, all free to check in the simulator. The price column is the most a YES is worth to the Sims; anything below it is value when the market opens.
| Player | Game | Sims | Worth up to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET at ARI | 74.4% | 74.4¢ (-291) |
| Bijan Robinson | BAL at ATL | 64.3% | 64.3¢ (-180) |
| Jaylen Warren | IND at PIT | 61.1% | 61.1¢ (-157) |
| Kyren Williams | BUF at LA | 56.7% | 56.7¢ (-131) |
| James Cook | BUF at LA | 54.7% | 54.7¢ (-121) |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | NYG at WAS | 53.4% | 53.4¢ (-115) |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF at SEA | 51.9% | 51.9¢ (-108) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SF at SEA | 51.8% | 51.8¢ (-108) |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN at NO | 51.7% | 51.7¢ (-107) |
| Derrick Henry | BAL at ATL | 48.3% | 48.3¢ (+107) |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN at LAC | 45.2% | 45.2¢ (+121) |
Bears at Packers gets its Sims later this week.
Ask Any Game
Every Week 5 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator. Pick a game, type the final score you expect, and it prices the touchdowns and props for that script. Or ask the Sims a question in plain words, like "How often does TreVeyon Henderson score when the Patriots win?"
Hero illustration: comic drawing from a TreVeyon Henderson photo by Bobak Ha'Eri (CC BY 3.0), on an Action background. Prices: Kalshi, Oct. 6, 2026.
