CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 211 yards in Houston last week, and tonight every receiving-yards line on him trades above what 10,000 runs of this game say he does. That is the whole story, and it comes from one question.
I typed it into Ask the Sims, the question box in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator: how often does Lamb clear 80 yards against Tampa Bay? The card below is the answer as it came back Thursday morning, with the Kalshi price beside it and a verdict on the price.
What I asked: "How often does CeeDee Lamb have 80+ receiving yards?"
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator. Tap it to ask your own Lamb question.
Disagree with the Sims?Ask them your version: Lamb at a different line, Lamb if Dallas trails, Lamb with Dak Prescott over 275. Every answer comes with the Kalshi price beside it. Open tonight's game.
Five Lines, Five Overpays
The card does more than answer the one line. It lays out the whole ladder, and the pattern is the same on every rung.
The alt-line ladder from the same card. Yellow is the Sims, blue is Kalshi.
| Lamb receiving yards | Sims | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60+ | 70.5% | 73.4¢ | 3¢ against you |
| 70+ | 60.8% | 64.6¢ | 4¢ against you |
| 80+ | 51.9% | 55.7¢ | 4¢ against you |
| 90+ | 42.9% | 44.7¢ | 2¢ against you |
| 100+ | 34.6% | 38.6¢ | 4¢ against you |
The 17-catch night is the reason. Houston kept scoring, Dallas threw 45 times, and tonight's prices sit where they would if that repeated. The Sims have Dallas ahead of Tampa Bay most of the night, with a rookie quarterback on the other side, and a team protecting a lead does not throw 45 times. Lamb still has a good game in most Sims. He has the monster game in few of them, and every line costs what the monster would be worth.
The Two Fair Prices
Scroll the same card and the Sims point at the two Lamb prices that are not inflated.
Lamb's other props and the other side of the 80-yard line, from the same answer.
Lamb scores a touchdown, 50.7¢ (-103) on Kalshi, 51.8% in the Sims. A coin flip priced like a coin flip. If you want Lamb exposure tonight, this is the one line where the price and the Sims agree.
Lamb under 80 receiving yards, 48.7¢ (-105), 48.1% in the Sims. The other side of the headline line is fair, not an edge. It is listed here so nobody reads "overpriced over" as "buy the under." The Sims say the under is worth about what it costs.
Lamb 4+ receptions at 86.8¢ is fair too, and pays so little that it is a parlay leg at best.
Pairs Do Not Rescue It
The card also prices Lamb 80+ next to Dak Prescott passing lines. Those pairs hit together far more often than their separate prices imply, 42% more often with Prescott 300+, and they are still negative value because both halves are overpriced to begin with. Correlation helps a parlay. It does not fix two bad prices.
My Take
- Skip every Lamb receiving-yards over tonight. 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 all trade 2¢ to 4¢ above the Sims.
- Lamb scores a touchdown at 50.7¢ is the fair Lamb bet, not an edge, but the only line where the price is honest.
- Do not flip to the under on principle. 48.7¢ against 48.1% is a fair price, and a fair price is a pass.
Every price here includes Kalshi's taker fee. For how that fee compares with a sportsbook's cut, see Kalshi fees vs. sportsbook vig.
Every Week 5 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator. Type a player and a line, and the card you get looks exactly like the ones above.
Prices: Kalshi, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, about 8:30 a.m. CT, as shown on the cards. Hero photo: CeeDee Lamb by All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
