Monday Night Football Picks: Stafford Won't Air It Out

Bills at Rams has the highest total of the week, 54.5 at the books, and Kalshi prices Matthew Stafford like the man who gets it there: 250 passing yards costs 68.5¢, 38 attempts 51.8¢, three touchdown passes 42.7¢. The Sims, 10,000 runs of Monday's 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff at SoFi Stadium, have the Rams winning 58.4% of the time and Stafford throwing less than that in most of them. That gap is the first leg of the parlay here.

The Rams win in the Sims the way they win when Kyren Williams gets going: a lead, a ground game and a quarterback who hands off once he has it. Josh Allen is the one chasing, and his lines are priced right. Stafford's are not.

Ask the Sims is the question box on the free Kalshi Combo Simulator: type a prop in plain English and it counts how often it hits across the 10,000 Sims, with the Kalshi price beside it. Each bet below starts with the question I typed into it Sunday afternoon and the card it sent back, then a verdict on the price. Inactives post Monday around 6:45 p.m. ET; the Sims assume Ed Oliver and Joshua Palmer out for Buffalo, as ESPN lists them.

Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?

The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator prices them in Polymarket's cents.

Stafford Stays Under 38 Throws

NO on Matthew Stafford 38+ pass attempts · 53.7¢ (-116) on Kalshi · 60.4% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Matthew Stafford have 38+ pass attempts?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

The card sends you to the other side. Thirty-eight attempts is a chasing quarterback's number, and the Rams chase in fewer than half the Sims. A team that leads hands off, and the under pays close to even money against a 60.4% count.

Cook Catches One, Not Two

NO on James Cook 2+ receptions · 51.7¢ (-107) on Kalshi · 59.0% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does James Cook have 2+ receptions?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

Cook is Buffalo's runner, not its outlet. The Sims have him at one catch or none in 59.0% of games, because Allen's short throws go to Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, and a Bills team that trails throws downfield, not to the back. The market prices two catches as a coin flip. It is not.

Two Touchdown Passes, Not Three

NO on Matthew Stafford 3+ passing TDs · 61.7¢ (-161) on Kalshi · 68.1% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Matthew Stafford throw 3+ touchdown passes?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

Same script, scored differently. The Rams' touchdowns in the Sims come from Kyren Williams, who scores in 60.6% of games at a fair 60.7¢, and from a passing game that finds the end zone twice, not three times. Three touchdown passes is a 42.7¢ price on a 31.9% event.

Stafford Under 250

NO on Matthew Stafford 250+ passing yards · 35.6¢ (+181) on Kalshi · 39.7% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Matthew Stafford throw for 250+ yards?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

The payout leg. The Sims give Stafford 250 yards in 60.3% of games, and Kalshi charges 68.5¢ for it, so the under at 35.6¢ pays close to two to one against a 39.7% count. The price drifted 2¢ toward the Sims Sunday afternoon and still says a 250-yard night seven times in ten; the Sims say six.