Who is favored to win the 2027 NBA MVP? Victor Wembanyama, clearly. He costs 31¢ on Kalshi, about a one-in-three shot, and DraftKings has him at +210. The next name on the Kalshi board costs about half as much.
That next name has won the award the last two years. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going for a third straight MVP, which only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird have done. He and Wembanyama open the season against each other in San Antonio on October 20.
The award itself gets decided in April, when 100 writers and broadcasters fill out their ballots. Last spring, four of the top five on those ballots either scraped past the 65-game rule in the final days of the season or needed it waived.
Every Contender's Price
What each player costs on Kalshi as of Wednesday morning, September 23, next to his DraftKings price as VegasInsider listed it on September 22 and where he finished in last season's vote. "Not eligible" means he fell short of the 65 games the award requires. Every player not listed costs 2¢ or less on Kalshi.
| Player | Team | Kalshi | DraftKings | Last season's vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 31¢ | +210 | 3rd |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16¢ | +350 | Won |
| Luka Dončić | Lakers | 14¢ | +650 | 4th |
| Nikola Jokić | Nuggets | 14¢ | +500 | 2nd |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Heat | 7¢ | +1200 | Not eligible |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 6¢ | +1800 | Not eligible |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 6¢ | +1800 | Not eligible |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 4¢ | +5000 | No votes |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 3¢ | +2000 | 5th |
The top two have drifted down a few cents since late June and have barely moved since August. Wembanyama cost 35 to 37 cents in the last ten days of June and has sat between 31 and 33 every day since August 1.
The most-traded contract on Kalshi's MVP board is not on this list. LeBron James, at 2¢, has had about 212,000 contracts traded since the market opened, five times as many as Wembanyama.
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Wembanyama at 31¢
ESPN's summer panel of NBA writers and analysts put Wembanyama first on its MVP ballot with 102 points. Jokić was second with 31. The six sportsbooks VegasInsider lists have him between +175 and +210.
Last season Wembanyama won Defensive Player of the Year and finished third in the MVP vote, and the Spurs went 62-20, second in the West. They beat Oklahoma City in a seventh game to reach the Finals, where Wembanyama averaged 26 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.6 blocks and the Knicks won in five. This summer he signed an extension that runs through 2031-32.
First he has to reach 65 games. Last season his appearance in the NBA Cup final counted toward his total, even though the stats from it do not. A rib injury on April 6 left him one game short, with 20 minutes needed in one of the Spurs' last three games. He went back in against Dallas, played 26 minutes and scored 40. "If I had had 65 [games] before, I would, for sure, not have played," he said afterward.
A Third Straight for Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander took 83 of the 100 first-place votes last spring for a Thunder team that finished first in the West at 64-18. He had opened that season at +150, the shortest opening price of any MVP in the last 12 years.
A third straight would put him with Russell, Chamberlain and Bird. Since 2000, a back-to-back winner has gone for a third seven times: Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James twice, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jokić. None of them won it.
Oklahoma City lost the West finals to San Antonio in Game 7, then traded Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Luguentz Dort this summer to get under the second apron. ESPN's summer panel had Gilgeous-Alexander fourth, with 26 points.
On Kalshi his 16¢ works out to about +525. The same six sportsbooks have him between +350 and +450.
Dončić and Jokić at 14¢
Jokić has finished first or second in the MVP vote three years running, winning in 2023-24 and finishing behind Gilgeous-Alexander twice. Last season he led the league in rebounds and assists, 12.9 and 10.7 a game, and drew 10 first-place votes. Voters have picked him from far back before: he won in 2020-21 after opening at +2500, and again the next season from +1600.
Denver finished third in the West at 54-28 and lost in the first round to Minnesota, and Jokić reached his 65th game on the last day of the regular season. DraftKings has him at +500, a little shorter than Dončić at +650. Kalshi has them level.
Dončić won the scoring title at 33.5 points a game and still got no first-place votes, finishing fourth. A hamstring strain in Oklahoma City on April 2 ended his regular season, and he never made it back before the Thunder put the Lakers out in the second round. He finished with 64 qualified games, after missing two in December to travel for the birth of his child, and made the ballot only after the NBA and the players' union agreed to waive the rule for him. In an August email to fans he wrote, "My recovery went great, and I'm 100 percent healthy again."
What the Voters Reward
Since 1985, only seven MVPs have come from a team that did not finish first or second in its conference. Four contenders played for a top-two team last season: Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder and Wembanyama's Spurs, first and second in the West, and Cunningham's Pistons and Tatum's Celtics, first and second in the East.
Jokić's Nuggets were third in the West, Dončić's Lakers fourth and Edwards' Timberwolves sixth. Brunson's Knicks were third in the East. Antetokounmpo's new team, Miami, was 10th. The Spurs and Thunder are also tied at the top of Kalshi's championship board, at 22¢ each.
Each ballot has five places, worth 10, 7, 5, 3 and 1 points, and voters fill it out after the regular season ends on April 11, so the playoffs count for nothing.
To be on the ballot at all, a player needs 65 games of at least 20 minutes, with two games of 15 to 19 minutes allowed to count. A player who reaches 62 games and then suffers a season-ending injury can still qualify, if those games were at least 85% of his team's games to that point.
Last season the rule kept Antetokounmpo, Curry and LeBron James off the ballot. Edwards took his case to an arbitrator and lost. Wembanyama reached 65 in the second-to-last game of the season and Jokić on the last day, and Dončić and Cunningham needed the league and the union to waive it. During the season, the players' union called for the rule to be abolished or reformed.
Stephen Curry was the first unanimous MVP, in 2016, with all 131 first-place votes. Shaquille O'Neal missed by one ballot in 2000: Fred Hickman, then with CNN, voted for Allen Iverson.
The Rest of the Board
Antetokounmpo starts over in Miami after Milwaukee traded him there this summer. He was not eligible last season, the Bucks finished 11th in the East, and ESPN's panel had him fifth.
Edwards has LaMelo Ball beside him after Minnesota's trade with Charlotte.
Tatum is starting his first fully healthy season since tearing his Achilles in the 2025 playoffs; he returned late last season. Boston traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia this summer, which leaves the Celtics fully in Tatum's hands.
Brunson is the Finals MVP of the defending champion and scored 45 points in the clinching Game 5, but he got no MVP votes last season. Kalshi has him at 4¢, about +2400. The six sportsbooks run from +3500 to +5000.
Cunningham finished fifth last season with two first-place votes and made the All-NBA First Team for a Pistons team that was the East's top seed.
Where Past Winners Started
Of the last 12 MVPs, three opened their season at +210 or shorter: Russell Westbrook, Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander. The other nine opened at longer prices, and Jokić won twice from +1600 or more.
What to Watch
- October 20. Opening night ends with the Thunder at the Spurs, 9:30 ET.
- April 11, 2027. The regular season ends. Voters submit their ballots after it, and the playoffs do not count.
Nothing here is financial advice.
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