Prices as of 1:35 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds from DraftKings as reported by SI Betting.
At 2:02 AM Eastern on Thursday, September 10, 2026, about two and a half hours after Drake Maye's third interception ended the Patriots' opener in Seattle, one Kalshi account sold 174,487 contracts of "Drake Maye wins MVP" at 7 cents. Read from the other side, that is $162,273 laid to collect $174,487 if Maye does not win the award: a profit of $12,214, about 7.5%, for money tied up until February. A 7-cent contract is a 7% chance, so the seller was getting roughly 13-to-1 that a quarterback who had just thrown three fourth-quarter picks does not come back to win MVP.
It was the biggest single print on Kalshi's MVP board this week by a wide margin, and it was not the only one. By Thursday morning the smaller sellers had followed, Maye had slipped from 8 cents to 6, and DraftKings had moved him from +1000, fourth on its board, to +1800, ninth.
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The Board
As of 1:35 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings odds per SI Betting, September 10):
| MVP | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 11–12¢ | +850 |
| Josh Allen | 10–11¢ | +600 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9–10¢ | +800 |
| Drake Maye | 6–7¢ (8¢ Wednesday) | +1800 (+1000 Wednesday) |
Kalshi still has Maye tied for fifth with Mahomes, Stafford, Prescott and Caleb Williams, a cent behind Justin Herbert. DraftKings has him ninth. A 7-cent contract and +1800 are not the same price: 7 cents is about +1330, so the exchange is still a touch friendlier to Maye than the book is, even after the sale. The market settles when the award is announced in February.
Who Sold 174,487 Contracts At Two In The Morning
The order printed at 2:02:17 AM, one fill, taker on the no side. Kalshi does not publish who is behind a trade, and a sale that size is either a new position against Maye or a big yes holder getting out; the tape does not say which. What it does say is the timing. The game ended at about 11:25 PM Eastern. Wednesday's trading had leaned the other way, 84% of the day's 36,000 contracts bought on the yes side, including 5,872 at 8 cents at 7:37 PM while the Patriots still led. Then nothing of size for two and a half hours, then this.
Thursday's tape had no yes buyers at all. Of 199,307 contracts traded by early afternoon, none were bought on the yes side. Whoever moved first at 2 AM got 7; everyone after got 6.
The order needs no theory. Set aside football and it is a 7.5% return over five months on the proposition that a 7-cent player does not win a 32-man award. Add football back and it is a read that a three-interception opener ends an MVP case in September, which the book agrees with.
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The Night That Moved It
All three interceptions came in the fourth quarter. The Associated Press recap has the sequence: with the Patriots up 10-3, a deep ball for Romeo Doubs was tipped by Rodney Thomas II and caught by Nehemiah Pritchett; Julian Love picked the next one and Seattle kicked the go-ahead field goal; then, with 21 seconds left and the Patriots at the Seattle 16 after Maye had converted two fourth downs to get there, Josh Jobe toe-tapped the sideline on a throw meant for Mack Hollins in the end zone. Seattle 13, New England 10. Maye finished 23 of 33 for 178 yards, a touchdown and the three picks.
"I thought we had the game under control," Maye said afterward. "I lost patience and it cost us." Mike Vrabel: "You can't throw three interceptions. Drake knows that."
The MVP contract was not the only Patriots market that repriced overnight. On Kalshi, "Patriots win 10 or more games" went from 59 cents Wednesday to 47 by Thursday afternoon. "Patriots make the playoffs" went from 62 to 48. "Patriots win the AFC East" went from 40 to 34. None of those had a print anywhere near the Maye order; they moved the ordinary way, a few thousand contracts at a time. I had the Seahawks on this game because the champs were not the same team, and the market has now priced a version of that argument into the Patriots' whole season.
One more thing from the same board. The contract with the most open interest on Kalshi's entire MVP list is not Burrow, Allen or Jackson. It is Tyler Shough at one cent, where somebody bought 500,000 contracts in one second on Tuesday evening for about $5,000. The Maye seller and the Shough buyer are the two ends of the same market: one laying 13-to-1 to earn 7.5%, the other paying a penny a ticket. Same week, same tape: Jake Hari has the Steelers nine-win contract someone sold Wednesday evening, and the midnight order on tonight's 49ers-Rams game is the biggest of the three.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Sunday, September 20, Steelers at Patriots. Maye's next start. A clean game and the 6-cent bid comes back toward 8; another multi-interception day and the sellers who took 6 will look early rather than wrong.
- A.J. Brown's ankle. Brown left in the third quarter and did not return. Maye without his top receiver for any stretch takes the counting stats an MVP case needs off the table.
- The top of the board. Burrow, Allen and Jackson all play Sunday. A big opener by any of them widens the gap Maye has to close, and the exchange's 11-to-12 cent favorite is the number to watch, not Maye's.
- February. This one settles when the MVP is announced at NFL Honors, the week of Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. Whoever sold at 7 cents on Thursday is holding until then.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of 1:35 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and DraftKings odds as reported by SI Betting on September 10, 2026; all will keep moving until the MVP market settles after the award is announced in February 2027. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
