Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table.
As of Thursday, September 10, 2026, 90% of the money DraftKings has taken on the total for Sunday's Bears-Panthers game is on the over 46.5, and it came from 43% of the tickets. The other 57% of bettors took the under and put up 10% of the cash. That is the widest split between tickets and money on any total this week, and it says the over is where the big bets are.
On Kalshi, the same contract has spent the week going the other way. "Over 46.5 points" opened Tuesday at 53 cents, a 53% price, and was 51 to 52 by Thursday afternoon. In three days 10,005 contracts traded on it and only 38% were bought; on Wednesday, the busiest day, 7,506 contracts changed hands and 56% of them were sales. The rung above it, over 47.5, went from 49 to 47 on 38% buying. One venue's money is on the over. The other venue's tape is selling it.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Bears win | 59–60¢ | -162 |
| Panthers win | 39–40¢ | +136 |
| Bears win by over 2.5 | 55–56¢ | Bears -3 (-118) |
| Over 46.5 total points | 51–52¢ | Over 46.5 (-115) |
The exchange is cheaper on three of the four rows. DraftKings' -162 on Chicago is a 61.8% price; Kalshi asks 60. Its +136 on Carolina is 42.4%; Kalshi asks 40. Its -115 on the over is 53.5%; Kalshi's over 46.5 is 52, and the under, the no side, costs about 49 against the book's -105 under at 51.2%. The spread is the exception worth reading twice: Kalshi's "Bears by over 2.5" at 56 cents costs two cents more than the book's -3 at -118, and for that you get a number that wins on a three-point Bears win instead of pushing. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 1 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium.
Where The Bears Money Went
The moneyline tape is ordinary for a favorite: 56,483 contracts of "Chicago wins" in three days, 90% bought, and the price sat at 60 the whole way. At DraftKings, 84% of the moneyline tickets and 83% of the money are on the Bears, and on the spread it is 83% of the tickets and 91% of the money on Chicago -3. Both venues agree on the side; the exchange is just charging less for it.
The spread ladder on Kalshi is where you can see the crowd's number. "Bears by over 2.5" took 11,375 contracts this week, 83% bought, and rose from 54 to 56. "Bears by over 3.5," the rung that needs Chicago to win by four, took 9,970 contracts split almost exactly in half and sat at 45 to 46. The exchange's buyers want the Bears to win and are willing to pay up for the field goal; they are not willing to lay four. That is a market saying this game lands on three, and the book at -3 with 91% of the money on the favorite is in the same place.
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Two Venues, One Total, Opposite Directions
Ninety percent of the money on an over from 43% of the tickets means a few large over bets at the book, not a consensus, and the book has responded by pricing the over at -115 against the under at -105, which is where the juice goes when one side is carrying the handle. The exchange has no such lean; its price is whatever the last buyer and seller agreed to, and those people have been agreeing at lower prices all week. Kalshi does not publish who is selling, and the prints are small, the biggest under 1,200 contracts. This is not a whale. It is a steady lean from the exchange's crowd toward a 46-point game while the book's large bettors lean toward a 50-point one.
That kind of disagreement usually resolves one of two ways by Sunday: the book's number moves to 47 and the exchange's sellers were early, or the book holds and the exchange's price drifts back up as the over money finds it. My picks page on this game has the reasons the number sits where it does; the Week 1 Kalshi player-prop board has Williams and Young by the number.
What Moves The Price From Here
- The book's total. DraftKings at 46.5 with 90% of the money on the over is a number under pressure to go up. A move to 47 makes the exchange's 52-cent over contract the cheaper way to buy the same thing.
- Friday's designations. Carolina's offensive line report is the piece of news that moves the total most; a downgrade there and the exchange's sellers get the game they were pricing.
- The Bears' three. Kalshi's "by over 2.5" rung at 56 is the crowd's favorite number. If the book moves to -3.5, that rung becomes a full point better than the sportsbook.
- Sunday, September 13, 1 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score in Charlotte.
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Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Bryce Young photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; Caleb Williams photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
