Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; injury reporting per ESPN, CBS Sports and the Las Vegas Review-Journal; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table. Updated 3:15 PM ET: the first edition of this page described Wednesday's burst without tying it to the Bowers report. That was the cause, and this edition says so.
At 3:57:01 PM Eastern on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, ESPN's Adam Schefter posted that Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had a meniscus trim in Dallas on Tuesday and would miss one to two games, starting with Sunday's opener against Miami. On Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, the first trade that reflected it printed 34 seconds later: 2,450 contracts of "Michael Mayer 25 or more receiving yards" bought at 3:57:35. At 3:58:37, 2,500 contracts of "Mayer scores a touchdown" went at 17 cents, up from 13 a minute earlier, and another 2,500 at 3:59:05.
At 3:59:51 PM, 15,920 contracts of "Raiders win by over 3.5 points" were sold at 48 cents in five same-second fills. At 4:02:18, a single 20,000-contract sale hit "over 40.5 points" at 52, and 10,011 more at 4:03:47. At 4:04:19, the first sales of "Bowers scores a touchdown" landed at 30 and 29 cents, and 6,185 more at 4:14. Between the report and 4:04 the exchange had repriced the Raiders' spread, the game's total, the Dolphins' chance of winning and both tight ends' touchdown odds. CBS Sports' write-up of the news was published at 4:24 PM. The market was done by then.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi now | Before the report | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders win | 59–60¢ | 63¢ | -170 |
| Dolphins win | 39–40¢ | 37¢ | +142 |
| Raiders win by over 3.5 | 46–47¢ | 50¢ | Raiders -3 (-112) |
| Over 40.5 total points | 48–50¢ | 52¢ | Over 40.5 (-112) |
| Michael Mayer scores a TD | 25–26¢ | 13¢ | — |
The exchange is now cheaper than the book on both sides of the moneyline. DraftKings' +142 on Miami is a 41.3% price; Kalshi's 40-cent ask is 40. DraftKings' -170 on the Raiders is 63%; Kalshi's 60-cent ask is three cents under it, before a fee of under two cents a contract. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 4:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium.
What Four Minutes Of Tape Looks Like
The Mayer contract is the cleanest record of the news arriving. It traded 51 times between 3 and 4 PM Wednesday and went from 13 cents to 21; between 4 and 5 it went to 26, and it has sat between 25 and 27 since. A 4,995-contract sale at 20 cents at 4:00:16 was the only real push back, and it was absorbed. Mayer's price doubled in an hour because the Review-Journal's read of the roster, that Mayer "is likely to take on an expanded role in the passing game while Bowers is out," is the read the exchange made in real time.
The game markets moved in proportion. The 40.5 total took 40,900 contracts on Wednesday, 87% of them sold, thirty thousand of those in the two prints at 4:02 and 4:03, and went from 52 to 49. The spread contract took 34,089 contracts, 87% sold, and went from 50 to 47. The Dolphins moneyline was 98% buys on the day, 30,109 contracts, and climbed from 37 to 40. Kalshi does not publish who is behind an order, and same-second fills in five pieces are what one market order looks like sweeping several resting bids, so the 3:59 and 4:02 sellers may or may not be one account. Either way the direction was set by the news, not by anyone's private read of the game.
The one contract that did not stay down is Bowers' own. "Bowers scores a touchdown" was sold from 38 to 29 cents in the first minutes after the report and then bought back to 37 by 5:13 PM, where it sat Thursday. The market's rules say a player who is active but never takes a snap settles at the pre-game price; they do not spell out the inactive case in the text on the market page, and the tape reads as traders betting the contract gets settled at its price rather than at zero. That is a rules question, not a football one, and it is the one place on this board where the two sides genuinely disagree.
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The Book's Money Was Already There
At DraftKings, 80% of the moneyline tickets on this game are on the Raiders, but only 53% of the money. One bettor in five is on Miami, and that fifth of the tickets is 47% of the cash; the average Dolphins bet is roughly three and a half times the average Raiders bet. On the total, 82% of the money is on the under 40.5. The book's larger bettors were on Miami and the under before Wednesday afternoon, and the Bowers report gave the exchange a reason to catch up to them in four minutes.
DraftKings was at Raiders -3 (-112) on Thursday with 63% of the spread money still on Las Vegas, which means the book's number has not come down to meet the exchange's 46-cent "by over 3.5" contract. The same report had a second half the market liked less: Ashton Jeanty returned to practice Wednesday and was listed as a full participant, which is why the Raiders did not fall further than three cents. My picks page on this game went up before any of this; the Sunday Kalshi player-prop board has the Mayer, Jeanty and De'Von Achane contracts.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Friday's designations. Bowers will be listed out. The number to watch is Jeanty's: a full Friday and the Raiders hold at 60; anything less and the spread contract slides again.
- The book's three. DraftKings held -3 through the Bowers news. If it moves to 2.5 by Saturday, the exchange's 46-cent by-over-3.5 contract will have priced the injury two days ahead of the book.
- Mayer at 26. A quarter of a dollar for a tight end to score is a price built on a role nobody has seen yet. The first Raiders depth chart of the week either confirms it or takes five cents off.
- Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score at Allegiant Stadium.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Tua Tagovailoa photo by Atlanta Falcons, licensed CC BY 3.0; Ashton Jeanty photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
