Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table.
At 2:28:17 PM Eastern on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, one Kalshi order sold 5,738 contracts of "Los Angeles Chargers win" at 81 cents, seventeen fills in the same second. At 5:59:22 PM the same afternoon, another order sold 9,449 contracts of "Chargers win by over 9.5 points" at 48 cents, fourteen fills in one second. On Kalshi a price in cents is a probability, so those are two bets, about ,100 and about ,900 in risk, that the biggest favorite on the Week 1 board does not do what the price says.
Neither moved the market much on its own. Together with the rest of Wednesday they did: the Chargers went from 83 cents on Tuesday to 81 by Thursday, and the "by over 9.5" rung went from 52 to 49. Only 68% of Wednesday's Chargers moneyline flow was buying, the lowest share of any favorite on the Sunday slate, and on the 9.5 rung it was 28%. Nearly three of every four contracts traded on Chargers -9.5 Wednesday were someone selling it.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Chargers win | 80–81¢ | -500 |
| Cardinals win | 18–19¢ | +380 |
| Chargers win by over 9.5 | 49–50¢ | Chargers -9.5 (-115) |
| Chargers win by over 10.5 | 43–44¢ | — |
Both moneylines are cheaper on the exchange. DraftKings' -500 is an 83.3% price; Kalshi's 81-cent ask is two cents under it. DraftKings' +380 on Arizona is 20.8%; Kalshi asks 19. Kalshi's fee at these prices is about a cent and a quarter a contract, so the Chargers discount mostly survives and the Cardinals discount is a small real one. The spread is the bigger gap: -115 on Chargers -9.5 is a 53.5% price, and the exchange's matching rung is 50. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 4:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium.
Twenty-Five Percent Of The Money From Six Percent Of The Tickets
At DraftKings, 94% of the moneyline tickets on this game are on the Chargers and 6% are on the Cardinals. The money is 75% and 25%. Six percent of the tickets carrying a quarter of the money means the average Cardinals bet is about five times the size of the average Chargers bet, which is the widest ticket-to-money gap of any moneyline this week. On the spread it is closer: 65% of the tickets on the Chargers -9.5 and 51% of the money, so the dollars are split evenly on a side that two-thirds of bettors took.
That is the book's version of what the exchange's tape shows. Small bettors are on the Chargers by count. Larger ones, at both venues, have been willing to take Arizona at +380 and to sell Los Angeles at 81 and at -9.5. The second sale had news behind it: the Chargers' first injury report of the season came out Wednesday afternoon with several injuries that had not been disclosed before it, edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu limited with a hip, running back Keaton Mitchell limited with a hamstring, cornerback Deane Leonard not practicing, and the 5:59 PM sale of Chargers -9.5 followed it. The 2:28 PM moneyline sale came before the report. Kalshi does not publish who is behind an order, and two same-second sales on one afternoon do not prove they were the same account. What they prove is that the selling was deliberate: seventeen fills and fourteen fills are what a large market order looks like sweeping through every resting bid at one price.
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The Ladder Says Ten Is The Number
The spread ladder on Kalshi is where the disagreement is sharpest. "Chargers by over 9.5" is 49 to 50 cents, "by over 10.5" is 43 to 44, and the 10.5 rung has traded 2,886 contracts this week with 7% of them bought. Ninety-three percent of the flow on Chargers by 11 or more was someone selling it. The crowd that is happy to lay the Chargers on the moneyline at 81 cents is not willing to lay double digits, and the exchange's sellers have been leaning on exactly that rung.
The Cardinals moneyline, meanwhile, took 28,716 contracts in three days, 93% of them bought, and held at 19 cents throughout. That is the usual Kalshi pattern of the crowd buying the underdog in small lots and market makers supplying it, but it is also a price that did not go down while the Chargers' did. My picks page on this game noticed the Arizona money before the week's tape confirmed it; the Week 1 Kalshi player-prop board has Herbert and Murray by the number.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Friday's designations. A Chargers starter downgraded and the 81-cent contract loses another two; a Cardinals scratch and Wednesday's sellers were early.
- The book's 9.5. DraftKings has held -9.5 with the money split evenly. A move to 9 would put the book's number under the exchange's 49-cent by-over-9.5 rung, and the sellers would have been right about the direction two days early.
- A third sale. Two same-second sweeps on one afternoon is a pattern. A third at 80 or 81 is the tell that the account is still building the position rather than done.
- Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score at SoFi.
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Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Kyler Murray photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; Justin Herbert photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
