Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table.
As of Thursday, September 10, 2026, 94% of the spread money at DraftKings on Sunday's Commanders-Eagles game is on Philadelphia -5.5, from 68% of the tickets. On the moneyline it is 90% of the money and 88% of the tickets on the Eagles at -218. On Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, 48,326 contracts of "Philadelphia wins" traded in three days and 97% of them were bought. The Eagles are 68 cents. They were 69 on Monday.
That is the whole crowd on one side and a price that has barely moved, which usually means the number was right to begin with. The more useful thing on Kalshi's board is not the moneyline. It is the spread ladder, where "Eagles win by over 4.5" is 53 cents, "by over 5.5" is 50 and "by over 6.5" is 47, and where you can decide which of those numbers you actually want instead of taking the one the book posted.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles win | 67–68¢ | -218 |
| Commanders win | 31–32¢ | +180 |
| Eagles win by over 4.5 | 52–53¢ | — |
| Eagles win by over 5.5 | 49–50¢ | Eagles -5.5 (-108) |
| Eagles win by over 6.5 | 45–47¢ | — |
DraftKings' -108 on Eagles -5.5 converts to a 51.9% price. Kalshi's matching rung, by over 5.5, is 50 cents, about two cents cheaper before a fee of under two cents a contract. The rung above it, by over 4.5, costs 53: three cents more than the book's number for a full point of cushion, which is a fair trade if you think this game lands on five. And the Commanders side is the single widest gap on the Week 1 board: +180 is a 35.7% price, and Kalshi asks 32. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 4:25 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field.
Three Minutes On The Four-And-A-Half
The one place the tape got interesting was Wednesday evening on the "by over 4.5" rung. At 6:06:14 PM someone sold 6,503 contracts at 51 cents in a single print. At 6:07:41 a buyer took 5,774 back in seven fills at 52, and at 6:09:10 another 6,452 in three fills at 53. In three minutes one account leaned against the Eagles by more than four and two accounts leaned into them, and the buyers won: the rung closed the day at 52 and was 53 by Thursday afternoon. That rung has traded 21,951 contracts in three days, 68% of them buys, the most two-sided market on this game.
Everywhere else the flow is one way. The Eagles moneyline's biggest print of the week was a 7,777-contract buy at 68 cents at 12:28 PM Wednesday. The Commanders moneyline took 13,120 contracts, 96% of them buys too, which is normal on Kalshi, where the crowd buys both teams and market makers sell, and its price slipped from 33 to 32 anyway. The by-over-5.5 rung, the one that matches the book, went from 48 to 50 this week on 76% buying.
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Ninety-Four Cents Of Every Spread Dollar
At DraftKings, 68% of the spread tickets and 94% of the spread money are on the Eagles -5.5. A gap that size between tickets and money means the average Eagles spread bet is about eight times the size of the average Commanders bet. The book has not moved off 5.5 and the price is -108, which is the book telling you it is comfortable. On the total, 88% of the money is on the under 44.5, and Kalshi's "over 44.5" contract took 3,709 contracts this week with 83% of them sold, the exchange's version of the same read.
What the ladder adds is a choice the book does not offer at one price. If the money is right and this is a comfortable Eagles win, by over 6.5 at 47 cents pays more than the book's -5.5 does. If you think the Commanders keep it inside a touchdown but lose, the 53-cent by-over-4.5 rung is the one that survives a five-point game the book's number loses. My picks page on this game has the reasoning on the teams; the Week 1 Kalshi player-prop board has Daniels and Hurts by the number.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Friday's designations. Philadelphia's report moves the whole ladder a cent per rung within the hour; a Commanders scratch on the offensive side pushes the by-over-6.5 rung through 50.
- The book's number. DraftKings at -5.5 with 94% of the money on that side either moves to 6 by Saturday or holds because the number is right. If it moves, Kalshi's 5.5 rung at 50 will have been the cheap way to lay it.
- Wednesday's seller. One account sold 6,503 of the by-over-4.5 rung at 51 and got run over. A return visit at 53 is the first sign the other side has real money behind it.
- Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score in Philadelphia.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jayden Daniels photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Jalen Hurts photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
