Andrea Kimi Antonelli started his home Grand Prix from 19th on the grid and won it. Kalshi repriced the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship while the race was still running: his contract last traded at 71 cents at 8:53 a.m. ET on Sunday, six minutes before the lights went out at Monza, and cost 87 cents to buy at 2:56 p.m. ET, this page's latest read. Since August 31, when this page last pulled the board, the contract had not traded outside 70 to 75 cents on any day before Sunday.
The lead grew with the price. Antonelli was 59 points clear after Zandvoort and is 66 clear after Monza, with 10 rounds left. George Russell, second on the road on Sunday and second in the standings, is now the only driver who can still out-score a leader who finishes second in every remaining race, and only by winning all 10 of them plus a top-five finish in the Singapore sprint.
Nine AI models scored all 22 drivers Kalshi lists without seeing a single price on August 31, before Monza, and their middle answer on Antonelli was 73.1%, within half a point of that day's 73.5-cent midpoint. Those numbers are kept below exactly as scored and dated. The panel was not re-run on this price move; the market has now moved 13 cents past where the board sat when the panel ran, and the honest thing to show is the frozen number next to the new price.
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How Antonelli Won Monza From 19th
Mercedes fitted Antonelli with power-unit elements beyond his season allocation for the Italian Grand Prix, and the grid penalty put him 19th at the start, as Formula 1's own race report records. Pierre Gasly put the Alpine on pole, with Russell alongside him on the front row.
Charles Leclerc crashed at the Parabolica, now named Curva Alboreto, on lap 2, and the red flag that followed stopped the race. When a virtual safety car came out for Lance Stroll's stricken Aston Martin around lap 29, Antonelli pitted for fresh medium tyres; Russell stayed out on used hards. Antonelli passed his teammate for the lead on lap 50 of 53, between the second Lesmo and the Ascari chicane, and won by 3.857 seconds. Max Verstappen was third, Lando Norris fourth, Oscar Piastri fifth and Lewis Hamilton sixth. Leclerc, Fernando Alonso and Stroll were the three retirements.
Points after Zandvoort on August 23, then after Monza on September 6, in today's order:
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes): 242, then 267. Leads.
- George Russell (Mercedes): 183, then 201. 66 back.
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari): 183, then 191. 76 back.
- Lando Norris (McLaren): 159, then 171. 96 back.
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari): 155, then 155. 112 back.
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull): 112, then 127. 140 back.
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren): 106, then 116. 151 back.
An earlier edition of this page had Piastri on 104 after Zandvoort; Formula 1's own results pages give him 106, and that is the figure used here. Russell and Hamilton were level on 183 a fortnight ago. Russell's second place at Monza, against Hamilton's sixth, is now a 10-point gap between them.
What The Price Did During The Race
The race started at 9:00 a.m. ET, and a red-flag stoppage of about half an hour early on means lap numbers do not map neatly onto the clock, so what follows is read by the clock, not the lap. Every trade in Kalshi's Antonelli contract during the nine o'clock hour was a buyer lifting the offer: 27 fills, 1,329 contracts, and the price walked from 71 cents to 76 by the end of the hour.
The ten o'clock hour was the move. It opened with 412 contracts bought at 76 cents at 10:00:27, reached 78 by 10:02 and 80 by 10:15. The one real bout of selling in the hour was 250 contracts hit at 77 cents at 10:25:35. Eight minutes later, at 10:33:54, buyers took 1,228 contracts in a single second across 80 to 83 cents, including one 792-contract fill at 80, and the hour closed at 88. Across the hour, 5,573 contracts were bought against 268 sold.
Two later prints set the day's high. At 11:30:40 buyers took 1,685 contracts at 88 and 89 cents in one second, and at 12:13:11 a single 1,500-contract order filled at 89, the highest price in this page's tape, which runs back to August 31. The price has sat at 86 to 87 cents since 12:37 p.m. Through 2:56 p.m. ET, 307 fills and 17,863 contracts had changed hands in Antonelli alone, and open interest rose from 630,431 contracts at midnight ET to 634,940 at 2 p.m., so new positions were opened rather than only repriced.
The chasers moved in the other direction, and Russell's contract told the race's story. It traded at 15 cents at 9:43:58 a.m., with 426 contracts bought at 14 and 15 cents in one second, was sold back to 9 by 9:58, and found buyers again at 10:14:09, when 945 contracts went through at 13 cents. Then, at 11:36:20, 5,752 contracts were sold at 3 and 4 cents in a single second. It sits at 5 cents to sell and 6 to buy.
Hamilton's contract carried the day's biggest one-second cluster on the board: 17,894 contracts sold at 1 and 2 cents in three fills at 10:56:37 a.m., and 25,321 contracts traded in his contract over the day, more than in Antonelli's. Leclerc, who had 1,563 contracts sold at 1 cent at 10:17:45, has no buyer at all now. Norris's contract, which traded at 7 and 8 cents in the small hours of Sunday, had 1,530 contracts sold at 1 cent at 12:57:42 and sits at 1 cent to sell, 2 to buy.
The Arithmetic After Monza
Russell has to take 66 points out of Antonelli across 10 rounds, 6.6 a round, a little more than the difference between finishing second and finishing fourth every Sunday until December. Hamilton needs 7.6 a round, Norris 9.6.
Run it the other way. If Antonelli finishes second in every remaining race and in the Singapore sprint, he ends the year on 454 points. Russell, winning all 10 races and the sprint, would end on 459; Hamilton on 449; Norris on 429. So one driver can still beat a second-place-everywhere leader on pace, and only by sweeping the rest of the calendar. Every other path to a different champion needs Antonelli to stop scoring like a leader: a retirement, or a run of finishes well off the podium.
His record there is one retirement in 13 rounds, in a Mercedes that has won nine of the season's 13 races and leads the constructors' standings by 122 points, 468 to Ferrari's 346, a gap priced as its own contract on Kalshi.
Two McLaren wins and a Verstappen crash in August changed who was chasing without changing the arithmetic of the chase, and the price held at 74. A win from 19th changed the arithmetic, and the price moved 13 cents. That is what the market decided, and it is what the frozen panel numbers below are measured against.
The Board: Every Driver Kalshi Prices
Kalshi prices as of September 6, 2026 at 2:56 p.m. ET, with the two prior reads this page has taken. The panel number is the median of the nine seats after the revision round on August 31, before Monza.
| Driver | Team | Sell / buy price, Sep 6 | Sell / buy, Aug 31 | Price on Jul 25 | Panel blend, Aug 31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 86¢ / 87¢ | 73¢ / 74¢ | 74¢ | 73.1% |
| George Russell | Mercedes | 5¢ / 6¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ | 10¢ | 7.5% |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 1¢ / 2¢ | 8¢ / 9¢ | 1¢ | 7.5% |
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 1¢ / 2¢ | 7¢ / 8¢ | 11¢ | 6.8% |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 3¢ | 3.8% |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 4¢ | 0.6% |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.4% |
| Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.2% |
| Liam Lawson | Red Bull | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.1% |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.1% |
| Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Alexander Albon | Williams | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | Williams | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Franco Colapinto | Alpine | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Oliver Bearman | Haas | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Esteban Ocon | Haas | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Sergio Perez | Cadillac | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | no buyers / 1¢ | no buyers / 1¢ | 1¢ | 0.0% |
Four of the 22 contracts now have a buyer as well as a seller: Antonelli, Russell, Norris and Hamilton. Leclerc's bid disappeared on Sunday. The other 17 are penny listings nobody is bidding for. Yuki Tsunoda, who finished tenth at Monza for Racing Bulls, is not listed by Kalshi, so the August 31 panel priced a "someone not listed" bucket at 0.1% to keep the board honest. Across all 22 contracts, 78,357 contracts traded in the 24 hours to 2:56 p.m. ET.
Every Seat's Number (August 31 Run, Before Monza)
| Seat | Antonelli | Russell | Norris | Hamilton | Leclerc | Verstappen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 73.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Claude Opus | 74.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Claude Sonnet | 66.4% | 5.0% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1.5% |
| ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | 73.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 74.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Grok 4.1 | 69.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Kimi K3 | 74.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| GLM 5.2 | 68.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| DeepSeek V4 | 68.5% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Panel Blend | 73.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
These are the pre-Monza numbers, kept exactly as scored. Every seat scored Antonelli below where the market now has him, and the highest single seat, 74.5%, sits more than 12 points under Sunday's 87-cent ask. One honest caveat: when this panel has disagreed with a price by ten cents or more, the price has usually been the one that was right, on the panel's record through August 31.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 86% on 1,207 graded calls · Claude Opus 87% on 1,277 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 85% on 1,254 graded calls · GPT 85% on 7,199 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 5,875 graded calls · Grok 84% on 5,024 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 2,897 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,738 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,781 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 31, 2026, price-blind, from a season ledger fetched at run time; the panel was not re-run for this update. Kalshi prices in the board table were re-fetched September 6, 2026 at 2:56 PM ET, and the trade tape quoted above is Kalshi's public trade log for the same contracts. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the championship settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: F1 constructors' championship odds (Mercedes 90¢ to buy, the same dominance priced at the team level) · NASCAR Cup champion odds (Denny Hamlin 39¢ to buy) · Premier League winner odds (Arsenal 53¢ to buy). Sibling prices fetched August 31, 2026.
Norris, Leclerc And The Long Shots
Norris is the reigning champion and, on August 31, the name the market had repriced hardest, from a 1-cent contract in July to 9 cents. The panel put him at 7.5% that day, just under the market's 8-cent bid, but two seats went further. DeepSeek V4 had him at 12% and Claude Sonnet at 13%, both leaning on his 80 points over the four rounds before Monza against Antonelli's 71. Monza reversed that: 12 points for Norris, 25 for Antonelli, and the contract, which traded at 8 cents in the small hours of Sunday, now costs 2 to buy.
The other seven treated that form as real but insufficient, with 11 rounds then remaining, and the argument they made in August reads harder now.
"Extrapolating Norris's trend rate (~2.25 pts/round closing) over 11 rounds only cuts the gap to ~58, not enough alone — he needs either an accelerating pace edge or Antonelli DNFs, and his own 3 non-finishes cap how much he can bank." — Claude Sonnet
A DNF is a race a driver starts but does not finish, and it is the word the whole board turns on. At these margins nobody catches Antonelli by driving faster, only by being handed the points he did not score.
Charles Leclerc was where the panel and the market disagreed most on August 31, and the gap has widened in the wrong direction for the panel. Kalshi would sell you Leclerc for 2 cents then; the panel's middle answer was 3.8%, and Sonnet went to 7%. The case was Ferrari's form: its two drivers out-scored Mercedes' pair over rounds 9 through 12, and Leclerc individually out-scored Antonelli 76 to 71, with a win at Silverstone on July 5. He then crashed out on lap 2 at Monza, is 112 back, and the contract has no buyer at 1 cent.
Max Verstappen finished third at Monza on a board where he still has no wins and four non-finishes, and at 140 back the market has not bid for him. Oscar Piastri was fifth, one place behind his teammate, and is 151 back. Below those two the panel's numbers collapse into rounding.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
On the first pass the nine seats spread from 46% to 82% on Antonelli, a 36-point disagreement about a driver who then had a 59-point lead.
After each model read the other eight, the spread closed to 66% through 74.5%, and the middle answer moved from 69.6% to 73.1%.
Claude Sonnet moved furthest and explained why:
"I also tracked gap deltas rather than snapshots: Norris closed 9 points on Antonelli over the last 4 rounds and Leclerc closed 5, while Russell and Hamilton actually LOST ground (gaps widened 19 and 13 points respectively) despite having the smaller nominal deficit (-59) — the 'closest two on paper' are trending the wrong way, so I hold Russell/Hamilton lower than several peers who anchored on raw gap size." — Claude Sonnet
Claude Opus barely moved, and held for a stated reason. Working from one retirement in 12 rounds at the time, it put the chance of two or more further retirements at roughly 23%, then argued that a single retirement costs about 20 points and settles nothing:
"That is why I sit at 74.5 rather than the 46-61 of the low forecasters: they price the DNF, not the DNF-plus-conversion conjunction." — Claude Opus
Four seats made the same structural point about the chasing pack. Russell, Hamilton, Norris and Leclerc sit in three different constructors and must beat each other before they can beat him. Every podium one of them takes is a podium another one does not. Monza was that point in miniature: the four of them finished second, sixth, fourth and out.
What Happens Next
- Madrid On September 13, Then Baku On Saturday, September 26 And Bahrain On October 4. An Antonelli retirement at any of them is the single trigger nearly every seat named in August. Even a zero on a weekend Russell wins leaves a 41-point cushion with ten rounds left, a tighter squeeze on the chasers than the 45 points with 13 to go that had Antonelli priced at 74 cents in July, so the market reaction would likely exceed the arithmetic damage.
- A Second Antonelli Retirement Before The Singapore Sprint On October 10. This is the scenario the whole board was priced around at 74 cents. The two seats that put a number on it landed near one chance in four across the rest of the season.
- Russell Winning In Madrid. He can take at most 7 points a round out of a leader who finishes second, so even three straight wins over an Antonelli second place only cut the gap to 45. His contract, at 5 cents to sell and 6 to buy, is now below where it sat before Zandvoort.
- Ferrari's Response In Madrid. Hamilton finished sixth and Leclerc did not finish at Monza; the pace step several seats read into rounds 9 through 12 did not show on Sunday. Hamilton's contract sits at 1 cent to sell and Leclerc's has no buyer.
The earliest the title can be decided is the Singapore weekend on October 11, and only if Antonelli takes almost everything on offer through Singapore: four wins and the sprint, with his nearest chaser held to 23 points or fewer across those four rounds. The season ends at Abu Dhabi on December 6, and Kalshi expects to settle the contract on December 8, on whoever Formula 1's final standings name as champion.
More on this: F1 Constructors' Championship Odds: Mercedes Priced At The Team Level · IndyCar Championship Odds: Palou Took Pole And Finished 20th · NASCAR Cup Champion Odds: The Panel Vs. Kalshi · How To Bet Sports On Kalshi
The Bottom Line
The title is Antonelli's to lose, and for the first time since this page began tracking it the price says so at 87 cents rather than 74. What Monza changed is the fallback: a win from 19th put the lead at 66, and only a Russell sweep beats a leader who keeps finishing second. One retirement keeps Antonelli a heavy favorite; a second one, on a weekend Russell wins, is the version that does not need Russell to be perfect.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Andrea Kimi Antonelli photo by Liauzh, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
