Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table.
As of Thursday afternoon, September 10, 2026, "Dallas wins" is the most traded contract on any Sunday game on Kalshi: 378,899 contracts since the market opened, 303,756 of them still open, and 137,539 in the last three days alone, 92% of those bought. On Kalshi a price in cents is a probability, and through all of it the Cowboys have been 61 cents to win at MetLife on Sunday night. Monday 61, Tuesday 61, Wednesday 61, Thursday 61.
The Giants side is where the one odd thing happened. At 12:48:21 AM Wednesday, an account bought 7,198 contracts of "New York wins" at 40 cents in three fills. At 5:22:40 AM Thursday, 7,198 contracts of "New York wins" were sold at 40 cents in one fill. Same size to the contract, same price, twenty-eight and a half hours apart. Kalshi does not publish who is behind an order, but a number like 7,198 does not recur by accident: somebody bought the Giants, thought about it for a day, and got out flat.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys win | 60–61¢ | -162 |
| Giants win | 40–41¢ | +136 |
| Cowboys win by over 2.5 | 53–54¢ | Cowboys -3 (-105) |
| Cowboys win by over 3.5 | 44–45¢ | — |
The moneylines are close to a wash between venues: DraftKings' -162 is a 61.8% price against Kalshi's 61-cent ask, and +136 is 42.4% against Kalshi's 41, a gap the exchange's fee of under two cents a contract mostly eats. The spread is where the exchange offers something different. DraftKings' -3 at -105 is a 51.2% price on a number that pushes on a three-point Cowboys win; Kalshi's "by over 2.5" rung is 54 cents and wins on that same result. Half a point for about three cents. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 8:20 PM ET.
Ninety-Two Percent Buying And Nothing Moves
Three hundred thousand open contracts on a moneyline is a deep market, and the tape on it looks like a deep market: 32,943 contracts Tuesday, 59,117 Wednesday, 32,793 by lunch Thursday, every day between 90% and 97% bought, and the biggest single print in three days was 2,656 contracts. This is thousands of people buying Dallas in small pieces, and someone large enough to sell all of them 61 cents' worth without blinking. The Giants moneyline took 70,687 contracts, 83% bought until Thursday, when the 7,198-contract sale dragged the day's buying share down to 53%.
At DraftKings the picture is the same and steeper: 73% of the spread tickets on Dallas -3 and 89% of the spread money, 77% of the moneyline tickets and 75% of the money. The public and the larger bettors agree here, which is not always true, and the book has held -3 through it, which means it is willing to take that money at that number.
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The Round Trip, And The Ten-Cent Touchdown
The 7,198 in and 7,198 out is worth a paragraph because of what it is not. It is not a market maker; market makers do not buy 40 and sell 40 a day later for nothing. It is not a hedge against a Cowboys position, or the exit would have come with a Cowboys trade alongside it, and there is none. It reads like a real opinion on the Giants, about ,900 worth, that lasted one news cycle. Nothing happened to the Giants' price in between; the contract was 40 when the position opened and 40 when it closed, and 41 by Thursday afternoon after the seller was done.
On the prop board, the Sunday night crowd has found one name. "Odell Beckham Jr. scores a touchdown" has traded 16,524 contracts in three days, 99% of them bought, and the price went from 9 cents to 10. That is a hundred-to-one crowd paying a dime for the story, and it is the single most one-sided contract on the game. My picks page on this one has the football; the Week 1 Kalshi player-prop board has the rest of the names.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Friday's designations. Dallas's report is the only thing that has a chance of moving a 61-cent contract with 300,000 open. Anything on the offensive line and the 54-cent spread rung goes first.
- The afternoon games. A Sunday night market absorbs the whole day's results before it kicks. A quiet 1 PM slate and the crowd keeps buying Dallas; an upset-heavy one and the Giants side finally gets a bid.
- The book's three. DraftKings at -3 with 89% of the money on the favorite is a number under pressure. A move to 3.5 makes Kalshi's 54-cent by-over-2.5 rung a full point better than the book.
- Sunday, September 13, 8:20 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score at MetLife.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jaxson Dart photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; CeeDee Lamb photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
