Steelers win total odds after Week 2: The nine-win contract that sat at 56.5¢ after the opener is 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask. Pittsburgh lost 20-3 at New England on September 20, and the ladder did not just give back the Week 1 bump. It went through the 51.5¢ the rung held on September 10, through the 48% six AI models gave nine wins when they priced the board blind, and through the 43% of the lowest seat. Ten wins went from 37.5¢ to 25.5¢. The market now carries 7.4 expected Steelers wins, against 8.46 on the September 10 read and the panel's 8.34, and the ladder crosses 50 cents at 7.66 wins.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET, Kalshi bids and asks before fees. The panel numbers are from its September 10 run.
| Steelers win at least | Kalshi now | September 15 | September 10 | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 games | 43¢ bid, 46¢ ask | 67¢ | 61.5¢ | 63.2% |
| 9 games | 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask | 56.5¢ | 51.5¢ | 48.2% |
| 10 games | 25¢ bid, 26¢ ask | 37.5¢ | 36.5¢ | 33.5% |
| 11 games | 11¢ bid, 15¢ ask | 30¢ | 24.5¢ | 20.5% |
A 35.5¢ contract pays $1.00 if Pittsburgh gets to nine wins and nothing if it does not; the midpoint reads as the crowd's percentage chance. New to Kalshi? How NFL trading works there.
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What One Loss Did To The Ladder
Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13 on September 13 and lost 20-3 at New England a week later. The win added five cents to the nine-win rung. The loss took twenty-one off it, and it was not alone: eight wins lost 22.5 cents from its September 15 midpoint, seven wins lost 16.5, twelve wins lost 18, and every rung from three wins up sits lower than it did after Week 1. The board has not moved since Tuesday morning, so the repricing was finished within a day of the final.
The middle of the ladder is where the quotes are tight. Nine wins and ten wins are each one cent wide, eight wins is three cents, eleven is four. Add the bids and the market implies 7.17 wins; add the asks and it implies 7.70. New England, the team that did this, carries 9.7 expected wins on the same board.
The panel comparison flipped. On September 10 the six seats were under the crowd on every rung from nine wins up. Today their September 10 median is above the market on every rung from two wins through thirteen, and the widest gap is eight wins, 63.2% against a 44.5¢ midpoint, then seven wins, 76.2% against 60.5¢. The panel never sees a price and its numbers stay on the record until January. The crowd went from a tenth of a win above it to nine tenths of a win below it in thirteen days, and the whole swing came on one road loss.
The Board
There is no single Steelers win total on Kalshi. Event ticker KXNFLWINS-27PIT lists 17 separate yes-or-no contracts, one per threshold, each paying $1.00 if Pittsburgh finishes the regular season with at least that many wins. Ties are not wins, postseason does not count, and every contract expires January 18, 2027. Our Kalshi Steelers settlement explainer covers what happened last January, when winning win-total positions were briefly refunded instead of paid. The panel column is the September 10 median of six models.
| Steelers win at least | Bid | Ask | Mid | September 15 | Panel (Sept 10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 game | settled yes | 100¢ | 99.8% | ||
| 2 games | 98¢ | 100¢ | 99¢ | 98.5¢ | 99.5% |
| 3 games | 93¢ | 100¢ | 96.5¢ | 97.5¢ | 98.7% |
| 4 games | 89¢ | 95¢ | 92¢ | 97¢ | 96.5% |
| 5 games | 84¢ | 85¢ | 84.5¢ | 96.5¢ | 92.5% |
| 6 games | 74¢ | 75¢ | 74.5¢ | 88.5¢ | 86.0% |
| 7 games | 59¢ | 62¢ | 60.5¢ | 77¢ | 76.2% |
| 8 games | 43¢ | 46¢ | 44.5¢ | 67¢ | 63.2% |
| 9 games | 35¢ | 36¢ | 35.5¢ | 56.5¢ | 48.2% |
| 10 games | 25¢ | 26¢ | 25.5¢ | 37.5¢ | 33.5% |
| 11 games | 11¢ | 15¢ | 13¢ | 30¢ | 20.5% |
| 12 games | 6¢ | 8¢ | 7¢ | 25¢ | 10.8% |
| 13 games | 0¢ | 7¢ | 3.5¢ | 15.5¢ | 5.1% |
| 14 games | 0¢ | 5¢ | 2.5¢ | 7¢ | 2.1% |
| 15 games | 0¢ | 5¢ | 2.5¢ | 4¢ | 0.8% |
| 16 games | 0¢ | 5¢ | 2.5¢ | 3¢ | 0.2% |
| 17 games | settled no | 0¢ | 3¢ | 0.1% |
Kalshi columns are best bid and best ask fetched Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 7:31 a.m. ET; September 15 is the midpoint read at 11:55 p.m. ET on September 14, after Week 1. The panel numbers on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
Two rungs are done. One win settled yes with the Atlanta game, and 17 wins settled no with the New England game. Ignore the four rungs from 13 through 16, where nobody is bidding and the only quote is a five to seven cent ask; those are displayed markets, not opinions.
More from the same panel: all 32 NFL win totals · the Browns' win total · the Patriots' win total.
A Nine-Win Team That Won Ten
The 2025 Steelers went 10-7, won the AFC North, and outscored their opponents by ten points, 397 to 387. The standard Pythagorean formula turns that margin into 8.76 wins. The extra win and a quarter came from a 7-3 record in games decided by eight points or fewer and a plus-12 turnover margin, fourth in the league, the two stats that most reliably fall back toward average.
Our ledger of every team season from 2010 through 2025 puts a number on it. Teams on a ten-win pace that finished at least a full win above their Pythagorean pace reached a nine-win pace the next season 48 times in 80, or 60 percent; narrowed to a scoring margin of plus-25 or thinner, it is 10 of 18, or 56 percent, against 47 percent for any team. By the panel's own scan of the class, none of those 18 teams changed head coaches and started a 42-year-old quarterback the next year, and this one did both. Mike Tomlin stepped down on January 13 after 19 seasons; Pittsburgh hired Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers' head coach for more than a decade in Green Bay, and Rodgers told reporters "This is it" on May 20, his 22nd season and his last. Whether that reunion is continuity or a farewell tour is the question the panel argued, and two games have not settled it: 20 points against Atlanta, three at New England.
Where The Six Seats Split
Six of the panel's eight seats ran this board on September 10: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM, Kimi and DeepSeek. Each was handed the same card, with the contract terms, the 17 rungs, the schedule, the 2025 game log and the base rates above, and none was shown a price. Each priced the ladder once, read the other five anonymized, and priced it again. The numbers below are that run, on the record and unrevised.
| Seat | Median wins | 8+ | 9+ | 10+ | 11+ | Luck in 2025 record | Coach + QB change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 8 | 63.5% | 47.0% | 32.5% | 20.0% | 1.5 wins | -0.5 |
| Claude Opus | 8 | 62.5% | 47.5% | 33.0% | 20.0% | 1.3 wins | -0.5 |
| Claude Sonnet | 8 | 63.5% | 49.5% | 34.0% | 21.0% | 1.3 wins | -0.55 |
| GLM | 8 | 58.0% | 43.0% | 29.0% | 17.5% | 1.25 wins | -0.4 |
| Kimi | 8 | 63.0% | 49.0% | 35.5% | 23.5% | 1.2 wins | -0.4 |
| DeepSeek | 9 | 72.0% | 56.0% | 38.0% | 22.0% | 1.5 wins | -0.5 |
| Panel Median | 8 | 63.2% | 48.2% | 33.5% | 20.5% | ||
| Kalshi Mid, Sept 10 | 61.5¢ | 51.5¢ | 36.5¢ | 24.5¢ | |||
| Kalshi Mid, Sept 23 | 44.5¢ | 35.5¢ | 25.5¢ | 13¢ |
How little they disagreed about last season is the striking part. Every seat put the luck in the 2025 record between 1.2 and 1.5 wins, and every seat signed the coaching-and-quarterback change negative, between -0.4 and -0.55. The entire spread at nine, from GLM's 43 percent to DeepSeek's 56, came down to one argument: which base rate you start from, and how hard you cut it for a first-year head coach and a retiring 42-year-old quarterback that no team in the sample had. DeepSeek, the lone nine-win median, took the 60 percent rate as the anchor because "the McCarthy-Rodgers reunion provides over a decade of shared system familiarity that uniquely dampens transition risk."
The row to watch is eleven wins. On September 10 the crowd's 24.5¢ was above every seat, and the argument was how much of Tomlin's era the market was still pricing. Today the crowd's 13¢ is below every seat, GLM's 17.5 percent included. Nine wins tells the same story: 51.5¢ was above five of six seats then, and 35.5¢ is under all six now, seven and a half cents under the most skeptical of them. The market has not moved toward the panel. It has moved through it.
Week 3: Cincinnati At Pittsburgh
The Bengals visit Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, September 27, at 1:00 p.m. ET, and Pittsburgh is the underdog at home: 37¢ bid, 38¢ ask to win, with Cincinnati at 63¢ bid, 64¢ ask. Cincinnati to win by more than 3.5 points is the coin flip, 49¢ bid, 50¢ ask; Cincinnati by more than 2.5 is 58¢ bid, 59¢ ask, and Pittsburgh by more than 2.5 is 30¢ bid, 31¢ ask. On the total, 42.5 is the even-money rung, with the over at 49¢ bid, 50¢ ask. Cincinnati arrives with 11.4 expected wins on the same board after a 20-6 win at Houston.
At 1-1 with 15 games left, nine wins needs eight more. Win Sunday and it needs seven of the last 14, and the nine-win rung climbs from here. Lose and it needs eight of 14, and the 7.66-win even-money point moves down again. Eight wins, the rung the panel likes most against the price, needs six of 14 after a win and seven of 14 after a loss. A Pittsburgh win is priced at 37.5¢, so it moves the ladder more than a loss does.
What Moves The Ladder Next
- The division, starting Sunday. Six of 17 games come against Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland, a combined 19-32 in 2025, and Pittsburgh went 4-2 in those six last year. Cincinnati's 11.4 expected wins say the softest part of that schedule is gone, and that is the single biggest thing the base rates could not see.
- The other 12-win opponents. New England was the first of four games against 2025 teams that won 12 or more, in a schedule with nine road games, a Week 7 game in Paris and the bye in Week 9. GLM's read of that stretch was the panel's: "the four 12+ win opponents and nine road games cap the right tail without dragging the mean below 8."
- Rodgers, every week. A 42-year-old quarterback on a farewell season is why the seats disagreed on width more than center; Kimi ran the widest distribution, citing "a fat left tail from age-42 quarterback cliff risk." A three-point road game is the week that tail was drawn for.
A ninth Pittsburgh win in December settles the nine-win contract early. This page is one of the Kalshi NFL win ladders we keep, alongside the Giants, the Patriots, the Browns and the Cowboys; the full 32-team board is on the NFL win totals model verdict. This board is re-scored when the story moves, as of September 23, 2026.
Prices fetched Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 7:31 a.m. ET. This page describes market prices and estimates and is not financial advice.
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