Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
Through four weeks the Steelers have not proven they should be favored in this game. They needed a pick-six from Cooper Rush to beat Atlanta in Week 1, they scored three points in New England, and they just lost to Cleveland. The Colts' only bad game was Week 1 against Baltimore. I don't want the spread here. I'd rather sprinkle on the Colts moneyline at +124.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Steelers Win By 3 Or More | 52-53¢ | Steelers −2.5 |
| Total: Over 44.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 44.5 |
| Moneyline: Steelers Win | 57-58¢ | Steelers -148 / Colts +124 |
On Kalshi, the Colts to win are 42 to 43 cents, about +135, better than the +124 at the books. Pittsburgh winning by three or more is 52 to 53 cents. The over at 44.5 is 49 to 50 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Colts | Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts run game vs Steelers run D | 1st | 18th | Colts O, clearly |
| Colts passing game vs Steelers pass D | 30th | 15th | Steelers D, clearly |
| Colts pass protection vs Steelers pass rush | 20th | 9th | Steelers D |
| Colts explosive plays vs Steelers big-play D | 29th | 30th | even |
| Steelers run game vs Colts run D | 22nd | 6th | Steelers O, clearly |
| Steelers passing game vs Colts pass D | 20th | 27th | Colts D |
| Steelers pass protection vs Colts pass rush | 18th | 27th | Colts D |
| Steelers explosive plays vs Colts big-play D | 18th | 18th | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Colts, best: rushing efficiency (1st), explosive runs (3rd), explosive runs allowed (14th). Worst: passing yards (31st), ypa (31st), pass defense yards (30th).
Steelers, best: rushing efficiency (6th), ypc (6th), pass rush (7th). Worst: ypa (30th), passing efficiency (27th), explosive passes allowed (30th).
Pittsburgh Is Not What The Line Says
The Steelers lost 27-24 in Cleveland as 2.5-point favorites. Aaron Rodgers went 22 of 41 for 299 with three touchdowns and two interceptions, and took five sacks and ten hits. DK Metcalf caught five passes for 115. Pittsburgh is 26th in EPA per play and 27th in sacks-plus-hits allowed.
The wins have been thin. Week 1 was 20-13 over Atlanta, a 13-13 game until Rush threw a pick-six to T.J. Watt; with Michael Penix Jr. in there, the way Atlanta's offense is playing now, that is probably a Falcons win. Week 3 was a home-dog win over Cincinnati. Joey Porter Jr. is in Dallas now, and it looks like Rodgers and Mike McCarthy already have a strained relationship. There is not enough here to call this a good team.
The Colts Haven't Been Bad
Indianapolis beat Washington 30-13 last week by three scores. Jonathan Taylor ran 20 times for 95 and two touchdowns, the team ran for 131, and the defense held Washington to a 28% success rate and 2 of 16 on third down. The Colts are first in the league in EPA per carry.
Before that, they beat Houston 19-17 in a big division game for two 0-2 teams, and took Kansas City to overtime at Arrowhead. The passing game is the weakness, 30th in EPA per dropback with Daniel Jones throwing for 143 last week. This is a pretty decent team that runs the ball against a defense that is 18th against the run.
The Pick
Colts moneyline +124.On Kalshi, Indianapolis to win is 42 to 43 cents.
The Colts are the better run team and the Steelers haven't earned the favorite's role, but I'd rather own the plus price than lay or take 2.5.
Ask The SimsThe same Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays. Ask them how you see Pittsburgh going: best parlay if Jonathan Taylor runs for 100, best Colts parlay if they win outright, best combo if Aaron Rodgers gets sacked four times. Every script gets its own parlay, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Pittsburgh's protection. Five sacks and ten hits on Rodgers last week.
- Joey Porter Jr. Now in Dallas.
- Weather. Outdoors in Pittsburgh. Check the wind Sunday.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Jonathan Taylor Colts OCT2022 (cropped).jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
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