Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 1:00 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium
A lot of people will look at Tampa Bay's win in Dallas and decide the 0-4 start was an illusion. I see it from the other side. Dallas has an awful defense, and we saw it Thursday night. Pittsburgh's defense isn't elite, but it isn't close to that bad. Tampa Bay still has an undrafted rookie at quarterback, and I'm not buying it yet. I don't usually like Pittsburgh as a road favorite. I'm doing it here: Steelers -2.5.
How Often Does It Actually Happen?A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like Bucky Irving under 65 rushing yards: it hits in 59.2% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 54.7¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:
How often do the Steelers win by 3+? · How often does Jaylen Warren score? · Best 2-leg combo for this game
Tap the card for the full answer.
The Game Lines
| Bet | Kalshi (¢ ≈ % chance) | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers win by 3+ | 51¢ | Steelers -2.5 |
| Over 39.5 points | 51¢ | 39.5 |
| Steelers win | 57¢ | Steelers -142 / Buccaneers +120 |
Tampa Bay Beat A Bad Defense
The Buccaneers won 24-16 in Dallas as 9.5-point underdogs. Jalon Daniels was 19 of 25 for 189 with no turnovers, and Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165. Irving had a good game, and he gets a much harder matchup this week: Pittsburgh held Indianapolis to 2.75 yards a carry.
Emeka Egbuka has been quiet, and Tampa Bay doesn't have a pass catcher right now who makes Daniels' life easier. Baker Mayfield is out again.
Jaylen Warren Is A Monster
Pittsburgh beat the Colts 34-22. Aaron Rodgers went 22 of 31 for 235 and three touchdowns, and Jaylen Warren ran for 101 and caught six passes for 87, including an 80-yarder. The Steelers are finally unleashing him. Even if Rico Dowdle returns, Warren will keep getting the work. Germie Bernard has popped up as a receiver Rodgers trusts.
DK Metcalf has dropped a lot of balls this year. The Steelers allowed five completions of 20 or more yards to Daniel Jones, which is the risk.
The Pick
Steelers -2.5.On Kalshi, the Steelers winning by 3+ costs about 51¢.
Selling the big upset win by an undrafted rookie quarterback, buying the team with the more established foundation.
Ask the Sims your own question about this game → Free, as many as you want, no login.
Injury Report
- Baker Mayfield (TB). Out (thumb); Jalon Daniels starts again.
- Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB). Listed doubtful (ribs).
- Rico Dowdle (PIT). Questionable (toe). Michael Pittman Jr. is on injured reserve.
- Rest. Tampa Bay has 10 days off the Thursday game; Pittsburgh is on a normal week.
My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: Cramerwiki via Wikimedia Commons (AaronRodgersPittsburgh.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
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