Kickoff: Thursday, October 8, 8:15 PM ET, AT&T Stadium, Prime Video
The Cowboys are on a short week after yet another shootout, a 34-30 win in Houston. Javonte Williams had 24 touches and three touchdowns and played 74% of the snaps. He'll get plenty of work again tonight, and he should: he's the lead back and the goal-line back. But this is the perfect spot to get Tyler Goodson some work too. Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite at home against a team starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback for the second straight week. If this turns into a blowout, Goodson gets his touches while Williams rests on the sideline.
Disagree With Me?Good. Ask the Sims your version of this game: how often Bucky Irving scores if Tampa Bay keeps it close, or how often CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both score in a shootout. The same Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
The Prices
| Bet | Kalshi | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams scores | 65¢ | 62% |
| Tyler Goodson scores | 11¢ | 22% |
| Both score (2-leg combo) | 6.8¢ | 13% |
| Cowboys win by 10+ | — | 50% |
Kalshi touchdown prices as of 3:40 PM ET Thursday; combo price as of 11:08 AM ET. Sims from Thursday's 11 AM ET run of 10,000 games.
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Williams Is The Lead Back
Williams has six touchdowns in four games and has scored in three of them. He has played between 71% and 80% of the offensive snaps every week, and in Houston he carried 19 times for 62 yards and caught all five of his targets. Dallas scores 30.5 points a game, second in the league. Nobody needs convincing on Williams. At 65 cents, his touchdown on its own is close to a fair price.
Goodson Is The Blowout Back
Goodson has played 15% and 21% of the snaps in his two games, with nine carries and no touchdowns. On a normal Sunday he's an afterthought. This isn't a normal game. Tampa Bay is last in the league in EPA per dropback, hasn't scored more than 19 since Week 1, and is starting Jalon Daniels again with Baker Mayfield out. It's fair to expect the Buccaneers to have trouble moving the ball, even against a Dallas defense this bad.
That's where the Sims come in. We simulate every game 10,000 times, and when I asked how often Williams and Goodson both score tonight, the answer was way higher than I expected: 14.4% on Thursday morning's run, about 1,450 of 10,000 games. A late-morning re-run has it at 13.0%, 1,304 of 10,000. When I asked how often they both score in a game Dallas wins by 10 or more, it was still about 10% of all sims.
The split explains it. In the sims where Dallas wins by 10+, Goodson scores 29% of the time. In every other game, it's 15%. Dallas wins by 10+ in half the sims.
The Pick
Javonte Williams and Tyler Goodson both score, 6.8¢.$10.09 pays $139.00 on Kalshi.
The Sims have this combo landing in about 13% of games. Kalshi priced it under seven cents, cheaper than the two legs multiplied together, as if a blowout didn't help both of them score. A blowout helps both of them score.
Build this pick your way in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Baker Mayfield (TB). Out (right thumb). Jalon Daniels makes his second straight start.
- Tampa Bay's defense. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) are out.
- Dallas. Guard Tyler Smith was activated from injured reserve and is questionable. Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown and tackle Drew Shelton are out (all hamstring). Williams and Goodson carry no injury status.
My full Buccaneers vs Cowboys pick is here, and my picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Commanders at Cowboys - 54871433716.jpg), licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
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