Tampa Bay comes to Dallas winless and without Baker Mayfield, so Thursday night comes down to whether a rookie quarterback and Bucky Irving can stay within reach of Dak Prescott. A game like this can play out dozens of ways, and the best picks change with each one. I played out two: the Bucs' defense gets enough stops to steal it, and Dallas throws until Tampa can't answer. Each comes with the picks that fit that game.
Have a different final score in mind? Set it for Buccaneers vs Cowboys and get the picks that fit your script.
How the Buccaneers win
The underdog Buccaneers win, with scoring close to the 47.5 total.
Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 21
The upset starts with Tampa's pass defense keeping Prescott and CeeDee Lamb in check. No quarterback has thrown for more than 254 yards on the Bucs this season, and they've faced Joe Burrow and Jordan Love. All four Tampa losses have come by seven points or fewer, so the first pick can cash even if the upset doesn't.
Cowboys win by over 7.5 · NO 49¢
Jalon Daniels makes his second start in place of Mayfield, so the timely plays have to come from Irving. Dallas is the right opponent for that. Only one defense in the league has given up more rushing yards per game.
Against itIrving's only touchdown this season came in Week 1.
Then Tampa has to score enough. The Bucs have topped 17.5 points twice, both times with Mayfield, which makes this the shakiest part of the script. What helps is the Dallas defense, which has allowed 28 or more in three of four games.
Buccaneers score over 17.5 · YES 53¢
How the Cowboys win
The favored Cowboys win by 9 or more, with scoring close to the 47.5 total.
Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 20
The Dallas script is simple. Prescott and his receivers on the outside are too much for Tampa to keep pace with. He threw 45 times in Houston last week, and the Bucs' secondary is banged up on a short week.
Against itThe same Tampa pass defense from the first script. Nobody has reached 275 on it yet.
Most of those yards run through Lamb, and so do the scores.
Against itJavonte Williams ran in three touchdowns last week, so the short ones may not go through the air.
The margin depends on Daniels playing like the unproven quarterback he is. He threw two interceptions in his first start and Tampa scored 14. If Dallas gets into the 30s, an offense that hasn't topped 19 since Week 1 has to match it.
Cowboys win by over 7.5 · YES 52¢
My Take
Too much offense. Dallas has Prescott in full control, and Tampa's season looks lost with Mayfield out and a rookie running the offense. I'd back the Cowboys script, and the margin is the pick I'd make first. If Dallas keeps scoring the way it has for three weeks, Tampa doesn't have the points to stay within a touchdown.
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