The Buccaneers walk into AT&T Stadium on Thursday night at 0-4, with Baker Mayfield sidelined by a thumb injury and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels taking the Bucs' snaps for a second-straight start. Tampa thus enters as 8.5-point underdogs to take on a Dallas team that's hit the over in all four games this season, so even if it's a slaughter, should be fun at least! Plus, it's not like the Dallas defense is anything to write home about so far, giving up 28 per game like T-shirts from the halftime cannon.
That creates a nice opportunity for us on both sides of the ball in this one in my opinion. Both plays plus money, but plays a half unit apiece, and both priced best on Kalshi. To Week 5 we go.
Play #1: Plus Money on Dallas's Favorite Target, 48¢ (+101 Effective)
George Pickens outplayed CeeDee Lamb for major stretches of the 2025 season, but so far in 2026? Different story. Lamb's been targeted a robust 46 times through four weeks, nearly 30% of Dak Prescott's throws, and he's caught 37 of them for 498 yards. He's commanded 43% of Dallas's air yards, he leads the team with six red-zone targets and five end-zone targets, and he's scored in three of four games. And last Sunday was absurd against Houston: 21 targets, 17 catches, 189 yards. Oh, and not to mention the go-ahead touchdown from 12 yards out.
Tampa Bay's pass defense has been middle of the pack this season with six passing touchdowns allowed so far, and with Dallas implied for roughly 28 points at this spread and total, there should be plenty of trips to go around.
The one potential thorn in the side is Javonte Williams who has owned the goal line in Dallas with 11 of the Cowboys' 12 carries inside the 5 leading to five rushing touchdowns. Jake Ferguson has been pretty effective in the red zone as well by way of three scores, but when push comes to shove, I trust Lamb to be the go-to guy all season long.
DraftKings and FanDuel both have Lamb at -110, Caesars at -109. Kalshi's 48¢ works out to +101 after the fee, so you're getting plus money on a guy every book I checked has at minus odds.
Play #2: Tampa Bay's Backfield Is a One-Man Show, 32¢ (+198 Effective)
Tampa Bay has scored 16 and 14 points the last two weeks, and with a backup quarterback under center, the offense figures to lean even harder on the one player I trust in this offense. That's Bucky Irving, who has 56 of the Bucs' carries this season, more than four times as many as Kenneth Gainwell's 13, and has caught 13 of his 15 targets.
Let it also be known that Dallas has been generous on the ground this season, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, and all four rushing touchdowns it has given up came from the 6-yard line or closer. That puts the Cowboys at 27th in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed, so if Tampa Bay gets close for once, Bucky has a good shot at finishing the job.
Now the part that keeps me honest: Irving has all of one touchdown this season, a 10-yard run in the opener, and Tampa Bay has run the ball only three times from inside the 10 all year, with Sean Tucker punching in last week's score from the 2. Daniels can also scramble against a defense that has given up 188 rushing yards to quarterbacks, and an 8.5-point spread could have the Bucs throwing late. If we get to second-half situations where Tampa's down 17, might be wise to deploy a small play on Gainwell if the price is right.
DraftKings and FanDuel have Irving at +195, Caesars at +183. Kalshi's 32¢ works out to +198 after the fee, a hair better than the best book.
How I'd Size It
Half a unit on each. If Dallas runs away with this one, Lamb is the most likely reason, and if Tampa Bay keeps it respectable, it'll be because Irving helps move the chains, so the two tickets cover different versions of the same Thursday night game. Although I must say, converting both is preferable. Duh.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Lamb's 48¢ you're adding on 1.75¢, so you're really paying 49.75¢, which is close to the most the fee ever takes because it peaks at even money. On Irving's 32¢ it's 1.52¢, so 33.52¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
Both contracts sit on the Buccaneers at Cowboys touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026, 7:15 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb Yes 1+ TD | 48¢ | 49.75¢ | +101 | -109 (Caesars) | TB at DAL |
| Bucky Irving Yes 1+ TD | 32¢ | 33.52¢ | +198 | +195 (DraftKings) | TB at DAL |
Lamb's contract has traded about 42,400 so far and Irving's about 14,300, and each shows thousands of contracts sitting at the quoted price. Both could move before kickoff, so stay alert.
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Final Thoughts
Dallas's busiest receiver at plus money in a game built for points, and the only back Tampa Bay trusts against a defense that can't stop anybody. Lamb's ticket misses about half the time and Irving's about two times out of three, so size them like it.
As always: half units, no chasing, and no hero sizing on a random Thursday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and let's light up the board with another fantastic NFL week.
— Lindy
More on this: NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Picks: Bucky Irving at +190 Leads the Board · Thursday Night Football Picks: Daniels Over 150, Fade Lamb · Buccaneers vs Cowboys Polymarket Picks: 0-4 Tampa Is Live at +365 · Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250 · Cardinals vs Giants Same Game Parlay: Skattebo Under 80
