Prices as of Tuesday, Oct. 6, 3:22 p.m. ET: Polymarket, taker fee included (screenshots round to the cent). Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr. are out for Tampa Bay, with Jalon Daniels expected at quarterback; DeMarvion Overshown and Cobie Durant are doubtful for Dallas.
Tampa Bay comes to Arlington still looking for its first win. The Buccaneers are 0-4, and three of those losses came by seven points or fewer. Dallas is 2-2 and has the stars, with Javonte Williams at five rushing touchdowns and CeeDee Lamb at 498 receiving yards.
Everyone has the Cowboys. I put the Tampa side of this game to the Sims, and it comes back better than 0-4 looks. My call is at the bottom.
Tampa At +365
21.5¢ on Polymarket · Buccaneers win costs 21.5¢ (+365). The Sims have it at 24.3%.
What has to happen
- Bucky Irving has to carry the offense. He leads Tampa with 241 rushing yards this season.
- The Bucs have to keep it to one score. Three of their losses came by seven points or fewer.
- Tampa's defense has to slow Williams without Antoine Winfield Jr.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Buccaneers win | 21.5¢ (+365) | The Sims have 24.3%, more than the price |
| ALSO | YES on Buccaneers win by 3+ | 18.4¢ (+443) | The Sims have 21.7% |
| SKIP | YES on Cowboys win | 80.5¢ (-413) | The Sims have 74.9%, below the price |
My readTampa doesn't have to be likely, just more likely than 21.5¢ says. A 0-4 team at +365 wins this game more often than that price, and that's the bet.
Bucky Irving Scores
32.7¢ on Polymarket · Bucky Irving 1+ TD costs 32.7¢ (+206). The Sims have it at 41.9%.
What has to happen
- Irving gets the goal-line carries. He has one rushing TD this season, so the volume has to turn into a finish.
- Tampa needs a few trips inside the 20. Irving scores in 41.9% of the Sims, and his best Sims game has five TDs.
- A close game keeps the Bucs running. A 21-0 deficit takes the ball out of his hands.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Bucky Irving scores a TD | 32.7¢ (+206) | 41.9% in the Sims, well above the price |
| ALSO | YES on Bucky Irving 3+ receptions | 44.7¢ (+124) | 45.4% in the Sims, a fair price |
| SKIP | YES on Bucky Irving 15+ receiving yards | 50.7¢ (-103) | 49.5% in the Sims, so you pay a little more than it's worth |
My readThis is the best value on the board for this game. Irving at 32.7¢ is priced like a third option, and the Sims treat him like the guy.
Egbuka's Catch Floor
57.7¢ on Polymarket · Emeka Egbuka 3+ receptions costs 57.7¢ (-136). The Sims have it at 61.8%.
What has to happen
- Egbuka gets the quick throws. Three catches is a floor, not a big game.
- Tampa has to throw enough to feed him. A trailing team throws, which helps here even if the upset doesn't come.
- Cade Otton shares the short throws. He leads the Bucs with 157 receiving yards, which is why Otton 4+ catches is the second bet here.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | YES on Emeka Egbuka 3+ receptions | 57.7¢ (-136) | 61.8% in the Sims |
| ALSO | YES on Cade Otton 4+ receptions | 45.7¢ (+119) | 49.0% in the Sims |
| SKIP | YES on Emeka Egbuka 50+ receiving yards | 33.7¢ (+197) | 28.9% in the Sims, so the yards line is the wrong way to back him |
My readIf you want a Tampa bet that doesn't need a win, this is it. Catches hold up in a blowout either way.
Build Your Script
The free Polymarket Combo Simulator builds the parlay for the score you type in. I typed in Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 20, the upset score.
Combo #3 is the one I like: NO on DAL wins by 6+, YES on Bucky Irving 60+ rushing yards, and NO on Over 53.5 total points. The Sims hit all three in 15.5% of games (+546).
Polymarket doesn't sell a combo ticket, so read this as a script, not a bet slip. The three Polymarket prices multiplied come to 12.2%, and the Sims have them landing together more often than that, because a close game and an Irving workload go hand in hand.
My Take
Buy YES on Buccaneers win at 21.5¢ (+365). 21.5¢ needs 21.5%, and the Sims have Tampa winning 24.3% of the time.
The second-best bet is YES on Bucky Irving scores a TD at 32.7¢, which needs 32.7% against 41.9% in the Sims.
Ask the Sims your own question in the free Polymarket Combo Simulator, like "How often does CeeDee Lamb score 2+ TDs?"
Hero illustration: comic drawing from an Emeka Egbuka photo by Maize & Blue Nation (CC BY 2.0), on an Action background. Prices: Polymarket, Oct. 6, 2026.
