Seattle beat Arizona 31-7 at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, and the Kalshi contract that pays if the Cardinals win five or more games asks 63 cents this morning. It asked 65 the Monday after Arizona's upset of the Chargers, and 45 before that game kicked off.
A 24-point home loss to the defending champion took two cents off the five-win rung. Six wins asks 51, down from 53. Four wins asks 79, unchanged. Against Tuesday morning's read, the sum of the rungs fell from 6.1 wins to 5.7, the second-biggest cut in the league this week; against the Monday after the Chargers game, the middle of the ladder has not moved. The ladder priced the Chargers win as real and the Seattle loss as expected, which is what the nine models on this page said it should do when they priced the season before Week 2.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET, Kalshi asks before fees.
Updated September 23, 2026 · 6 min read · by Jake Hari
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What The Loss Did To The Ladder
The Cardinals win total on Kalshi is a ladder of yes-or-no contracts, one for each threshold from one win to 17. Each pays $1 if Arizona gets there. The one-win rung has already paid out; the 17-win rung has already settled to zero.
Compare this morning's board with the Monday after the Chargers game, and the middle of the ladder is flat. The rungs that moved are seven and eight wins, where the quotes were wide enough after Week 1 to be unreadable and are now tight: seven wins is 30 bid, 35 asked, after 23 and 48. Eight wins is 19 and 23, after 4 and 43.
Add every rung's midpoint together and the ladder comes to 5.7 wins. On Tuesday morning the same sum read 6.1, so the ladder gave back four tenths of a win between Tuesday and Wednesday. Only one team on the season board gave back more in that window: the Giants, down 1.4 wins after losing 28-6 at the Rams.
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The Board
Every rung through ten wins, with this morning's bid and ask, the quote from the Monday after Week 1, and the answer the nine-model panel gave before Week 2.
| Wins | Bid / ask now | Sept. 14 | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ | 92 / 100 | 95 / 99 | 99% |
| 3+ | 91 / 94 | 89 / 93 | 96.5% |
| 4+ | 77 / 79 | 75 / 79 | 91% |
| 5+ | 62 / 63 | 58 / 65 | 82% |
| 6+ | 49 / 51 | 43 / 53 | 70% |
| 7+ | 30 / 35 | 23 / 48 | 52.5% |
| 8+ | 19 / 23 | 4 / 43 | 37.5% |
| 9+ | 10 / 15 | ||
| 10+ | 7 / 10 |
Kalshi quotes in cents as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET; the Sept. 14 column is the 10:37 a.m. ET quote that Monday. The panel figure is the median of nine AI models (Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, GLM and DeepSeek) after a revision round on September 14; none saw a price, and the panel has not been re-run since the Seattle game. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The rungs from 11 wins up have no bid and ask six cents or less.
The gap between the panel and the ladder has not closed. The panel put five wins at 82% and six at 70%, and the asks are 63 and 51. The panel's ladder adds to 6.7 wins; the market's adds to 5.7. The panel put every seat's median season at seven wins, and seven wins asks 35 cents.
The panel's reasons for seven still read the same after the loss. Every seat named the same soft games: the Giants, Washington, the Jets, New Orleans and Las Vegas, with Kansas City on most lists. Five of those plus the banked win gets Arizona to six, and the seventh has to come from Kansas City, Dallas, Detroit or an upset inside the division. Seattle was on nobody's list, so a loss to Seattle takes nothing off the count.
DeepSeek held every number through the revision round, and its reason is the one the Seattle game supports:
"One game is too thin to override his track record and the current injury pile."
That track record is the case for the market's side of the gap. Arizona is 1-1 under Mike LaFleur, who replaced Jonathan Gannon after last season's 3-14, with Kyler Murray released in the offseason, per Pro Football Rumors' offseason review.
The last 15 seasons split the difference. Of the 71 teams from 2011 through 2025 that came off a season of 4.5 wins or fewer, 60.6% reached six wins and 52.1% reached seven, adjusted to 17 games. Six wins asks 51 cents and seven asks 35.
Every number on this page gets graded once the season settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: NFC West odds 2026 · Dolphins win total 2026 · Giants win total 2026.
Week 3: At San Francisco, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Arizona plays at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, September 27, and a Cardinals win asks 22 cents (21 bid). The 49ers side is 78 bid, 79 asked. The 49ers are 2-0 after beating Miami 35-13, and the season board has them at 11.5 expected wins, tied for second in the league.
The spread ladder puts the game right at a touchdown and a field goal: San Francisco by more than 8.5 points asks 51 cents, by more than 6.5 asks 59, by more than 3.5 asks 68. An Arizona win by more than 1.5 asks 19. The total sits at 47.5, where the over asks 51.
Here is what Sunday does to the ladder. A loss leaves Arizona 1-2 with 14 games left, and the five-win contract at 63 cents would need four of them. A win settles the two-win rung, which shows a 92-cent bid and no ask under a dollar, and puts the five-win contract three wins from paying. On the Monday before the Seattle game a Cardinals win asked 34 cents; at San Francisco it asks 22.
The first game on the panel's short list is October 4 at the Giants, who are 1-1 after the 28-6 loss to the Rams.
New to season-long contracts like these? Our guide to betting NFL futures on Kalshi walks through how they pay and when.
The sportsbook side of the same number lives on our Arizona Cardinals win total over/under page.
Settlement Timeline
The contract settles on regular-season wins alone, and the dates below are the ones that move it.
| Settles | January 18, 2027, after the 17-game regular season (ties are not wins; playoff games do not count) |
| Next Data Point | Sunday, September 27, 4:05 p.m. ET at San Francisco |
| First Game On The Short List | Sunday, October 4, 1 p.m. ET at the New York Giants |
| Division Stretch | November 8 at Seattle · November 15 vs the Rams |
| Bye | Week 14 |
| Season Finale | Week 18 vs San Francisco, time to be set |
This page is re-scored when the story moves. Prices last read September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET.
The Bottom Line
The nine models priced the season at 6.7 wins before Seattle, on a short list of soft games that did not include Seattle, and their case is unchanged. Sunday at San Francisco, where Arizona asks 22 cents to win, is the next number on the board, and October 4 at the Giants is the first game the panel counted on.
Hero photo: State Farm Stadium by Troutfarm27, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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